jbenedet

I’m much more interested in storm size at this point. If I had to guess, Francine looks more like a mid to high end cat 2 in terms of ACE. Anyone got those exact numbers to share?

Wind…who cares…? All about surge. Yea…even in a cat 1 in this part of the world…Modest 3 ft with proper fetch transforms the look of SE LA. Let’s watch…. https://coast.noaa.gov/slr/#/layer/slr/3/-10114013.53249664/3562572.3384631854/6/satellite/none/0.8/2050/interHigh/midAccretion

Surprising seeing consensus to miss Puerto Rico, given current position and trajectory. Next 6 hours will be interesting, not just for Puerto Rico, but a direct hit; however unlikely, would have important implications to intensity and therefore track...

As is how things almost always go with mdr threats east of leewards. Gotta miss the first trough, or it’s way out to sea. Really needs to stay well south of 20N while passing Puerto Rico for that to happen. This one has a good start point and early trajectory to miss…but it’s a coin toss considering most of latest guidance shows otherwise.

I think southeast Georgia to southwest SC. Savannah GA to Charleston SC, more specifically, highest risk. Plenty of time for changes but that’s the current high risk area for major fresh water flooding.

The Gulf of Maine may also be seeing more warming due to higher volumes of water via river/stream watersheds as warming climate inducing higher precipitable water in New England region. Not only is this water fresh, but it’s also a lot warmer than the Gulf of Maine. This could also be compounding the fresh water effects of melting sea ice noted above….

@bluewave Yes I am in agreement with that.

At the moment, odds are strongly in favor of significant rain threat; odds are against wind and surge threat. The scenario of a stall near Savannah GA—advertised across all major guidance and only 90 hrs out—could make a run of mill storm in terms of intensity highly impactful and, financially, very costly.

This is a good read. A few years old but without hyperbole. Also less “predictive”; much more of what is already occurring and why… https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-021-00143-5 My feelings are far Western Europe (Spain, Ireland, Portugal, parts of northern/western France) and Great Britain are asymmetrically exposed to a colder climate while the eastern CONUS is asymmetrically exposed to much warmer outcomes as a result of this. The arctic Labrador current is seeing similar effects, at an even faster rate. And if the Gulf Stream were to significantly slow —what does that mean for heat transport? We then have warmer SST’s pooling in the western Atlantic, potentially up to the mid Atlantic region…Not really a prediction at this point. Seems that it’s already subtly happening…As I type this, seeing multiple buoys reporting SST’s in upper 60’s from NE MA to just south of Portland Maine. And we have another month before peaking… Fastest rate of warming in the region where the Labrador current ends its journey…fastest rate of cooling where the Gulf Stream ends its trek…

12zEuro and GFS show a weak disturbance developing off OBX tomorrow and hooking towards eastern LI/eastern New England Monday morning. Looks tropical, but very weak. ~1000 mb Interesting because it's immediate term and otherwise dead out there (for now)... GFS is boring evolution, and largely non-event. GEFS are more like EPS though... EPS is a little interesting...

Check the ASOS. Bad measurements might make you unsweat.

Whatever the case, the streak continues.. with CON, MHT and DAW all already achieving >/= 90...

Seeing CON also peaked at 90 today. The streak goes on. Days in a row 90+ DAW: 11 MHT: 10 CON: 9

I’m good. MHT ensuring this streak gets the recognition it deserves.

MHT 90 We also downslope better than MHT on west winds…

We roast around here. It’s generally accurate, I can say based on living and working around here. But I have seen the scatter plots from dendrite. Some skepticism is warranted for a degree or 2. I believe the bigger story is UHI affects that are concentrated along the east side of the apps and this gets fanned up from Philly, NY, the denser populated areas of CT and MA (sans Boston). It’s poorly understood (to be sure) but DAW is known to CAD on moose farts. I believe we see similarly with WAD but this ageo flow is driven by UHI. I believe the Covid migration and influx of people into northeast MA and SE NH have slightly added to this phenomenon in recent years. That’s my untested hypothesis, anyway…

CON also hit 90 again yesterday. current day streak 90+ DAW: 10 MHT: 9 CON: 8

MHT and ASH were also >90 today. MHT 92. With the next several days guidance showing high probs of >/= 90 in south/east NH, looking likely we extend the streak with an exclamation point.

We should get it today. Would be a damn shame if we don’t given how much we’ve been above the min criteria.

No kiddin’. Lately we’re getting far interior southeast summer but New England early spring and crap weather through winter. I’ll take the southeast summer if I can get better springs and winters.

Speaking for southern NH, 90F air temp is such a low bar in summer now, I'd take the other side of any bet going against more heatwaves after next week. We've been running this heatwave with extreme dews... We can very easily achieve 90+ with "seasonal" airmasses by shaving 15 off recent DP's.

NWS forecast for DAW has 90+ on the table through next Wednesday. Wow...

Day 6 90+ Latest guidance consensus is Thurs and Friday will also continue the streak...

Little Lemon off the southeast coast. 10% probs at 5 days... BUT this thing--whatever comes of it-- is headed to our region by this weekend... so we track...

Guy in my town who refurbishes old AC's spotted with new mercedes van in driveway.