winterwx21
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Everything posted by winterwx21
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Yeah you'd think with a chance so many days in a row, odds are high that my area will get hit one of the days. It's crazy though to have my area being missed by storms by a few miles in every direction right now. I thought the one just to the south might hit me, but I see it made enough of an east drift that it will probably miss. Hopefully better luck tomorrow since the activity is expected to be more widespread.
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I see there is another one just to the south that appears to be going over Allsnow's area. That one is moving north so it should hit me shortly.
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Hearing thunder here from a cell just to my east. Another just popped up just to my west. Hoping one will hit my area today.
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Three days into this pattern with rain chances, and only .23 of rain so far here. Hopefully we'll have better luck the next several days.
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I got .11 from that small downpour earlier. Based on the way radar looks, it appears that HRRR is going to correct about most of the activity missing to the west today.
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Just had a decent little downpour here, but too small/brief to give any meaningful rain. Hoping to get some heavy rain today or this weekend, but the activity is gonna be scattered so who knows. HRRR says most of the activity will stay west of our area today and tomorrow, but hopefully we'll get lucky.
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Yeah it just doesn't look like the widespread heavy rain event that models were showing a few days ago. The steady rain for this morning failed and now it's just gonna be scattered activity the next few days. Of course some areas will get lucky with heavy downpours and will get a good amount of rain, but there will be other areas that get very little. Hopefully we'll get lucky here, but my expectations are pretty low now.
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I actually watered the garden yesterday in case today didn't work out. Glad I did. I'm so used to potential rain events disappointing here that I usually water to be on the safe side.
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And now GFS has only about a half inch of rain for us by monday.
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What a shock that another event might be falling apart, lol. Of course I have to say might because the models don't have a clue. Other models look better. RGEM gives us a decent amount of rain tomorrow, but who knows. Considering how incredibly dry it has been here since May 1st, it wouldn't be surprising if the NAM ends up right and our misery continues.
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Euro not bad with the steady rain tomorrow morning. It gets about a half inch up to our area, with much heavier amounts for central to eastern Long Island.
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HRRR and GFS look a little better than NAM and RGEM for the batch of steady rain tomorrow morning. I'm hoping we can squeeze a half inch out of it, but it certainly could end up being less than a quarter inch like NAM and RGEM show. You never know what's gonna happen with convection ... we could end up getting a couple heavy downpours friday and saturday, or it could end up missing us. So I'm hoping the band of steady rain tomorrow morning will deliver a decent soaking.
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For most of the area. Most of the rain on 12z Euro is thursday and friday. It's showing only isolated activity for the weekend.
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And 12z Euro isn't showing much activity for the weekend and monday. Hopefully we'll get a good amount thursday and friday.
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Yeah our area often has such bad luck. Hopefully the heavy rains won't somehow find a way to miss us again.
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A lot of models now bring in the rain overnight wednesday night. I remember a couple days ago looking at the CMC and being surprised that it was bringing rain up into the area wednesday, since all other models had the rain staying south until the end of the week. It was slightly fast but it looks as if the CMC had the right idea bringing in the rain much earlier. Anyway I'm glad we're finally gonna bust out of this dry pattern. The ground here is already very dry again since we didn't get enough rain last week, so it's great that it looks likely that this pattern will deliver and give us the rain that we desperately need.
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Yeah last night's Euro doesn't give us a rain chance until next sunday, and obviously that's way too far out there to be optimistic. I wish our area had gotten more rain this week considering next week looks dry. I wasn't thrilled with the 0.84" for the week here since the potential looked better. At least it was enough to help and gave me a break from watering for a week, but I wish we had gotten 1.50"+ like some other areas received. The ground is going to be very dry again by early next week.
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I ended up with 0.29" here. Not too bad and about what I was expecting after looking at everything last night and this morning, but disappointing as you said considering what the models showed a couple days ago. I got .42" and .13" from the events earlier in the week, so we did end up getting a decent amount for the week. It was at least enough to water the gardens for the first time in a long time, and I can wait until early next week to water. But it's going to dry out very quickly early next week, and this wasn't enough to stop us from heading towards a drought. Overall a disappointing week considering what the potential was.
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Yeah still a decent moderate rain coming down with some rumbles. About to come to an end though.
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I just passed .20 here. Looks as if we'll just make the quarter inch here.
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A few rumbles of thunder here with the moderate rain.
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Decent low end moderate steady rain here so it is wetting the ground under the trees now. Based on the way radar looks though it's probably going to be struggle to get to the quarter inch. Looks as if this is going to be just barely enough to water the gardens.
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Yeah probably a quarter to half inch for our area. Not anywhere near what we really need but at least enough to water everything.
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Moderate rain here.
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Yeah, but I think my chance is much lower since I'm in the extreme northern part of the County. Southern Middlesex County could do pretty well.
