winterwx21

I'm sure the death rate is much lower than 3.4%. Since this is so similar to the flu and most people get fairly mild symptoms, it's obvious that many people that get it just assume it's the regular flu and don't even bother to go to the doctor. They just get better on their own. So if those people were in the statistics, the death rate would be much lower. I was talking to my doctor about this the other day. She agrees that the hype about this Coronavirus is ridiculous. It's basically just another form of the flu. Remember 2 years ago we had that season with an extra serious strain of the flu that was causing much more severe illness and death rates. Why didn't the media go nuts over that? That was much worse than what we're seeing now with Corona. The media right now is just mega hyping this for ratings, and it's very unfortunate because it's causing a mass panic. People that are up in age or have underlying medical conditions need to be careful about catching this any kind of flu or flu-like illness, so yes there should be concern and caution. But not the epic panic that we're seeing right now, and younger healthy folks shouldn't be any more concerned about this than the regular flu. Yet people are hoarding at such great levels that you can't find a bottle of hand santizer anywhere, and even bottled water is becoming harder to get. It's insane and so annoying. There are companies working on Corona vaccines right now, and human testing starts in April. Some companies are projecting that a vaccine could be ready by the end of this year or start of next year. The stock price of Inovio Pharmaceuticals went from 4 dollars to 15 dollars in just 5 days on this news. Also, I don't know why you say experts don't expect it to peter out in warmer weather. I see many experts saying it's reasonable to assume it will go away with warmer weather, because it's so similar to cold/flu and cold/flu does go away in warm season. What they are saying is they can't say that for SURE, since it's a new virus. But there's a good chance it will, and that would at least give us several months without the virus.

Warm storm for thursday, but looks like a true arctic blast for a change this winter on friday. Could struggle to make it out of the 20s that day. Just a brief arctic blast though ... will go right back to the warm pattern very quickly.

You're so right about people being lazy these days, and that's why the majority of people are overweight which causes so many health problems later in life. That's why I always do my own shoveling, cut my own lawn instead of hiring a service and I also do a lot of running (25 to 30 miles each week). It's sad that so many people refuse to be active these days.

12z Euro says you have to go to northwest Jersey to get any snow accumulation, which seems like the more likely scenario to me. But since GGEM and UKMET have snow closer to the coast, we still have slight hope.

Anyone else look at the 12z GGEM? Major snowstorm for northern NJ, NYC and LI wednesday night into thursday. Not that I buy it. Other models are not showing this. Probably just the GGEM overhyping like it often does. Pattern does not support a snowstorm for this area, though I wouldn't 100% rule it out. Every once in awhile we can get a very lucky thread the needle in a bad pattern. I really doubt this one though.

This is the map that counts sleet as snow. The more accurate snowmaps that don't count sleet as snow, look nothing like this.

Models are showing better cold air moving in around February 6th. Hopefully we can cash in on that. Looks like a much better chance that something can work out the end of the first week into the second week of February. This weekend, as you and most people here have pointed out, is a true thread the needle that has only a very slim chance of working out. Really looking towards that 2nd week of February for a much better chance.

Looks as if tomorrow could be our last day with normal temps for a long time. No cold air on the models in the long range ... constant above normal temps. Of course long range is changeable, so hopefully something will change. But right now it's a very depressing look for winter lovers.

I just measured 1.7" inch here, and yeah it's sleeting here too. Lighter intensity precip, so it could flip back to snow is some heavier stuff moves in.

The change in recent days is another example of how difficult long range forecasting is. It wasn't long ago that the signs pointed to a very good pattern for late January. Now it looks like garbage. Thankfully we're getting this snow event today so January doesn't end up being a shutout.

That band in PA looks good. Latest HRRR is now giving 3 inches to our area ... good to see it's picking up on that band that will give us good accumulations later this afternoon.

12z NAM is giving nnj only about 2 inches now while it gives parts of Long Island 3 inches. But yeah, GFS does look much better for our area. NAM, RGEM and HRRR give us only 1 to 2 inches here now though. A cutback from what they were showing last night and I find it odd that some models are now giving LI more snow than our area. Hopefully GFS is correct for us.

NAM and HRRR actually give Long Island more snow than northern Jersey now. Doesn't make much sense since LI was supposed to get less due to warming. Models have suddenly cut way back for my area, showing closer to 1 inch. Bad trends here at the last minute for this area. I know people say it doesn't matter because it's nowcasting time, but models are supposed to be more accurate the closer they get to an event. So they should be more accurate now than they were last night, but it's hard to believe LI could get more than northern NJ in this kind of setup.

This map is always overinflated, as Allsnow has pointed out. The one that he posted tends to be more accurate and shows more like a 4 inch snowfall, compared to the 5 that this one is showing. Nice to see the NAM go colder though. 3 to 4 inches is looking like a decent possibility now.

That certainly was an ugly 12z GFS run for long range. A shame that what looked like a flip to a sustained cold pattern about a week ago completely fell apart in the last few days. Long range is so difficult to predict. Thank goodness chances are increasing that we'll pick up a few inches of snow here on saturday. It looks like our last snow threat for quite awhile. Hopefully February will be good like some of the signs are pointing to.

12z HRRR is pretty cold too, with 2 to 4 for most of the area.

Today's 12z NAM at hour 84 has 1 to 2 inches for NYC, and 4 inches just a shade away from NYC. Most of northern NJ is 4 inches. NYC is right near the edge of the more significant snow on this run. Of course this is long range NAM, so there's a ways to go before it gets into its more reliable range.

0z GFS looks colder and weaker. A nice little hit of 2 to 3 inches of snow, and then not much rain.

Too early to say it looks like an all out snowstorm. GFS is a nice snowstorm, but other models aren't as impressive and show just a light snow accumulation getting washed away by rain. 12z EURO is just a 1 to 2 inch snowfall for NYC and nearby areas, and then rain. You have to go well to the NW to get a 3 to 5 inch snowfall according to today's EURO. But we have a long way to go, so hopefully it'll improve. It's very likely going to change to rain, but strength and position of the high to the north will determine whether it's a light accumulation washed away by plenty of rain or a more significant accumulation that won't be totally washed away by some rain towards the end.

Yeah, 12z GGEM is mostly rain for NYC. Pattern is just in the process of improving, so it might not be good enough yet to prevent a big cutter and mostly rain. Maybe high pressure will be strong enough to give us a decent front end dump though. Obviously still way too early to know. Precip looks to come in friday night, so I think we'll start getting a better idea tuesday night when we get to the 3 day range.

GFS now has a big warmup in late January (around the 23rd) after a transient cold shot. But who knows, very long range is so tough to predict. It wasn't long ago that we thought there would be a very long period of warm weather in mid to late January, but now it's turning out to be only a 6 day warm period as the cold comes back late next week. So who knows about very long range. At least we know we have a decent window for wintry weather towards next weekend into early the following week. But beyond that, who knows.

Sleep is very important for health. I can understand losing sleep during the rare occasions when we're looking at a major snowstorm, but it's not worth it losing sleep over a potential snow event that would be minor at best. I hope you can stop doing this, for your health's sake.

Took awhile to reach the ground, but we did have some moderate snow. Light snow right now. Pretty out there with a light coating on colder surfaces. Maybe we can squeeze out a half inch.

Yeah it really is having a hard time reaching the ground. Radar echoes say I have moderate snow right now, but I don't even have a flurries falling. Too bad some of this decent band is being wasted by the dry air.

18z NAM is actually showing a few inches of snow for the coast tuesday afternoon/evening. Other models aren't as cold, but something to keep an eye on.