Yanksfan

The pacific jet does us in again. What was a historic setup; a retrograding western -NAO, the blocking with the banana high, the 50/50 low and the PV lobe phase with an impressive southern stream all gone in a little over 24 hours. I was intrigued with the potential but never fully bought into it. Only if the big storm was there on Monday I would have jumped in. The elusive KU has slipped through our fingers. Is it too much to ask for a run of the mill 3-6 inch event? Could very well be. In closing these last few winter seasons have been frustrating to say the least. Now there’s talk in the NE forum next winter about a modoki El Niño which happens to be the most conducive to snow in the eastern US. Not if the PAC jet has anything to say about it. Sorry for the rant guys. Carry on.

Just chalk it up as a bad run. We move on, regroup and look forward to 18z.

A blizzard is great I guess with all the high winds and drifting, but not great for snow growth. The high winds breaks down the dendrites. You want calmer winds for maximum snow accumulation potential.

Would have loved to see the run play itself out to see if the low continued up the coastline or made a sharp turn east like at 12z.

That is how you draw it up. Textbook.

I assume there will be some epic solutions when the indies come out.

I’m not surprised. This next week is really going to test our patience.

I don’t care how ominous the 500mb maps look. We need the PAC jet to relax some or our great potential next week will be flushed down the toilet like all of the others. That damn anomaly has been wreaking havoc on us for several years now.

Snow map please.

Agreed. If there’s one model I trust the most it would be the EURO AI. It’s been spot on this winter. It has the Wednesday storm gradually trending north. I don’t have access to snow maps but it looks like it has a few inches in our area with more down in central and southern Jersey.

Everybody needs to chill. Any individual OP run can’t handle all the little nuances from the bombardment of waves that it’s trying to decipher. Look at the GFS for instance. It’s flip flopping like a fish from run to run. We need to focus on tonight only and forget about a storm that is days away. Once this upcoming storm passes and hopefully produces, then we can turn our attention to the next potential event.

Great post. Someone in the NE forum several years ago said it best during a high potential period for snow, “You can’t shovel potential.”

Wow I would sign up for half of that and run with it!

I just got a watch myself.

Is it just me but I noticed when a model run shows the Saturday storm trend south, it pushes the Tuesday/Wednesday threat south due to the fact of the first wave lowering heights in its wake and vice versa. That would make it difficult to have an impactful event with both storms.

I keep looking out the window. Looks like an icy mix of snow and sleet. Meh. Already looking ahead to Saturday nights event.

That’s just nuts. I’d sign up for half of that. Then again maybe not!

In an alternate universe I would have loved to see March 2001 having lived up to its full potential. I’ll never forget the forecast write up from the NWS a few days before the big bust occurred. Downright ominous.

I want a damn KU event. We’re overdue. Make it happen!

I’d be surprised if they don’t. Warnings need to be extended into the rest of North Jersey, the City and LI.

I know this is insignificant in the grand scheme of things but I think Upton is playing it conservative. I think they should have gone with warnings for Hudson, Union, and the remainder of Essex counties. The city I believe should remain as an advisory with the risk of mixing, but if recent trends continue with the meso models getting colder the city just might achieve warning level status when all is said and done.

NAM looks juicy!

I live in Nutley township. Currently there are no advisories. Just 3 miles away in Clifton they are under a watch. Talk about being on the fence!

Euro OP we toss.

Woah. Now that’s a move west!