Jed33

11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

'14-15 is the snowiest I have ever seen my area of the TRI - and that includes some great winters of the 80s and 90s.  From mid January to the end of February it just snowed and snowed.  There were school systems with had 10+ days banked which ran out of days, and these weren't systems which just called out at the drop of a hat.  I think that is one winter where my area was actually snowier than John's.

February of 2015 had me crying uncle and I don’t cry uncle easily! There was snow on the ground for nearly the entire month. It started off with a clipper on steroids and then it seemed like we had snow after snow about every 2-4 days. Several of which were pretty good snows! The thing that got me the most was the inability to work. I’m in pest control, and there’s just not a lot of opportunities to say the least when it gets like that.

GFS looks faster with the cold another 25mi faster east move like it was doing yesterday.

I remember when the official windchill values were changed to supposedly make it more “accurate”. They raised the values, making it harder to achieve cold windchill readings. Back in the 80’s those numbers would have been even colder than that

6 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Thought I'd check out the Euro soundings to see how it is handling the airmass after the front and I think it gave me a new weenie rule!

If the sounding shows the dewpoint being higher than the air temperature, something could be off with the way the model is rendering that particular area:

Yeah, something might be off there, it is not possible for the dewpoint to be higher than the temp. Or put another way, the temp cannot drop lower than the dewpoint. (Fully saturated if they are the same value) The temp and dewpoint can lower at the same time but the lowest the temp can go is the dewpoint. 

Use caution because it is the CMC, it did look ever so slightly better for the pre-Christmas storm, but look at Tues! That is how you get a clipper to hook up with the Gulf of Mexico, spawn a low pressure, and make a powerful winter storm!

That system is strong enough to bring some warm nose issues up into the eastern valley though, more of a snow to sleet/rain mix and back to light snow at the end. Middle and West TN, North MS and AL fare better than east TN but East TN does ok with it

It looks to me like the GFS is slowly catching onto the magnitude of the cold. If you toggle between the last 3 runs, there is an ever so slow but steady movement eastward in the speed of the cold, maybe 25-30miles faster east, each time, but it seems to be taking very small baby steps in the right direction. 

3 hours ago, Wurbus said:

That was one cold GFS run. East TN below freezing from the 23rd-29th if that verifies.

On that 18z GFS run, sub 500mb thicknesses creep into NE TN at around 1AM on Christmas Day! It’s not very often you will see that even modeled for our area!

2 hours ago, John1122 said:

18z looks just like modeling did for the 2020 Christmas eve snow event. Those strips of heavier snow in an anafrontal situation. I've noticed it often models anafrontal snow that way but we tend to all get closer to equal amounts when it happens.

Will never forget that event. That has to be my favorite Christmas weather event of all time! Heavy snow on Christmas Eve to the tune of about 4.5in and then snow showers all day on Christmas. Of which, the heaviest one was right when we sat down for the Christmas meal. Plus the temps to go with it. High was around 16 degrees and low of 6. Will be hard to ever top that but the 18z run was trying to make a run at it!

20 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

6z GFS has re introduced the idea of some upslope this weekend, Euro has the vort that causes it on the GFS too, but doesn't show any precip. Maybe we can squeeze out a snow shower or two?

Fwiw the CMC from 0z has the upslope this weekend as well.

0.52in of rain from this system today and yesterday. For me, that’s more than I’ve had in over a month from any 1 system.

Bottomed out at 31, but will likely be colder tonight. On that note, look at how massive an area the freeze warning for tonight covers. Can’t ever remember seeing that big of an area so early in the season be under a freeze warning!

Bottomed out at 37 this AM. There was a pretty good bit of frost in the lowest areas around here as well. Actually have had a couple other mornings since it’s been getting cold now with isolated frost in these same low lying areas. These cold mornings and warm dry afternoons should really speed up the Fall foliage in a hurry! 

Ended up with 0.25in from Ian. Honestly more than I thought we would get, but we have now moved to the extreme northern part of the county on Cherokee Lake. Which, the way this county sits puts me further east than I was and got me in one of the more moderate bands of rain for a little while last night. This was another one of those sharp gradient storms that we sometimes see. If you go into town where we were living, it drops off considerably to around .10 and if you go to the far southwest side of the county less than that. 

Ended up with about 1.5in from Friday night-today! Finally the extended dry spell has ended. 2.22in for the week. I know other areas have seen so much more, but it’s been crazy how hard it has been to get good rains in this part of the valley.

Finally had a decent rain last night here at the house. Picked up 0.51in. We’ve also been missing out on most of the heavier rains since the first of June. For June, we picked up a total of 1.43in and so far July 0.75in. Needless to say, we’ve had to water, water, water. I’m sure my water bill will be sky high! I’m really hoping that tonight into tomorrow maybe we can finally pick up at least an inch from a storm or two.

There have been several very intense snow showers here today as well! Every time one is rolling in, the wind just starts bowling. It’s been a long time since I’ve seen it snow in April and almost mid April at that

Just had one of those mix showers here with heavy drops and melting flakes that splat on your windshield. The temp also dropped 7 degrees here as well

Picked up 0.02in today. The system just hit a brick wall as it moved NE it seems. I think convection along the coast robbed a good bit of the energy as well, which led to a sharp drop off the further north you go. Looks like we could see a few showers this evening/overnight, but now have to pin our hopes on tomorrow and whatever can be squeezed out on Friday/Saturday 

It’s been dry here too this month! According to old folklore, one of the things you never want to see in spring and summer is a rainbow. They usually portend long periods of dry or relatively dry weather coming up. Unfortunately for me on March 23, there was a rainbow after we picked up 0.36in of rain. The last system this past week put out 0.06 on Wed night and 0.04in on Thursday. This put my monthly total at 2.43in. Looking at model output for tomorrow it looks like NE TN is in a relative minimum again for precip. Not what you want to see when it’s getting dry. Hopefully we get back to a more normal rainfall pattern here soon.

Did anyone in E TN hit the single digits? Seems like all the stations are running about 5-10 degrees above guidance? Looks like the wind never really fully died down until the last minute before sunrise. That may have prevented the drop that was anticipated. I bottomed out at 14 but now back up to 15. Forecast low was 10. I saw TYS was at 18 there forecast low was also 10. 
 

Overall a good storm. I finally hit double digit snowfall on the year with 10.5 now for the season after yesterday. Interestingly this 14 degree reading and 1 other is the coldest temp that I’ve had for the year. Should have at least made it to the single digits 1 time, but I guess this year it was just not meant to be.

Managed to get to 3in here at the house. It was a fun event for sure! Congrats to Knox and surrounding areas. Y’all really racked up this time!

6 minutes ago, John1122 said:

No. Colder is always better for sticking snow. For some reason snow just wasn't getting to the ground in areas to the East. Most likely some dry air pulled over the mountains. 

Seems like I saw a post from carver earlier this AM about a meso-low running up the spine of the apps or maybe even just this side. Could that have robbed this area or created a slight downslope component

1 minute ago, Dsty2001 said:

Just from eyeballing it looks like maybe 3, possibly 4.  But I haven't had a chance to go outside and officially check yet lol

That’s cool I moved out to the lake outside of Russellville, so lost some elevation now, unfortunately will probably pay the price each time it snows. My wife and daughter had to go to a cheer competition this AM in Sevierville-she said it was heavier in Morristown where I used to live. She said she only had 1 place where the road was slick.

Just now, Dsty2001 said:

Any word on that band that is swinging through?  Hoping to maybe cash in another little bit of snow before this event ends

How much do you have there?

Snow has picked back up again. Maybe I can get to 3in. System just kinda ran out of steam from Morristown east and north. 2-3in amounts are the norm here