Jed33

Now for the cold part of this storm. GFS going for sub -10F tonight in the areas of the valley that had the heaviest snow. With the coldest around Knoxville of -14!!!! MRX is saying -1 to -2 or so for most of the heavy snowpack area. If we go lower than -10 I’d be surprised, but I guess we will see. I’ve only seen lower than -10F one or two times in my life, and that wasn’t anywhere I lived at the time.

4 minutes ago, Stovepipe said:

Biggest flakes of the event hitting here now.  Got dimes, nickels, and even a quarter or two mixing in with those heavy returns.  My gut tells me this is the last blast but who knows.  Again, very very very grateful. 

Have you hit double digits yet?

Right at 8in now! That band from Knoxville pulled right up over my area. I have literally been right on the line for the rain/sleet/snow today. Bays Mtn seems to have kept the west 1/3 of county heavy snow with little to no mixing. If I had any I don’t know when it was. Meanwhile out by I81 it was very little snow until the last hour. I think they have had about 1.5in. Such a sharp gradient in this county! I don’t ever remember seeing such a big difference in snowfall.

Heavy snow again here. Just under 6.5in now.

Absolutely ripping here!

Getting close to 6in now

Up to 4.75in now

In this area, it appears that Bays Mtn has kinda been the cutoff so far from the mix. I live in the far NW corner of Hamblen Co now at the corner of Grangier, Hamblen, and Hawkins. I’ve got a little over 4in now, but a buddy of mine out by I81 says he’s got around 2in. Hopefully the WAA will cease for all of us. It’s stayed all snow here, but I’m uncomfortably close to the line. 

Closing in on 4in now wow!

2 minutes ago, Bigbald said:

It's like that blob of yellows and orange on radar scope is just sitting on morristown.  Impressive!

It’s been snowing quite heavily for awhile! I know we’ve got to be getting close to 3.5-4in by now but I’m not sure but what that might be sleet bc of the brightbanding. I hope not. 

Just now, PowellVolz said:

TWC app has me at -6 for Wednesday morning. Don’t like that


.

With the snow cover it might be possible 

Closing in on 3in now. Heavy snow! It’s not all that dry either. Sticking to the trees pretty well. Road is beginning to cave.

Closing in on 2in now

It’s absolutely ripping here right now!

Moderate snow now. Temp is 26.

Picking up here for sure steady light to moderate snow. 

So far this morning have about 1.25in mostly on the grass with a crunchy ice and scattered snow cover layer on the roads and driveway. 

Light snow flurries finally making an appearance here. Temp 29 dp 21

Man the gfs!

MRX evening update. Pay special attention to the last part! WPC has upped totals and thinks it will be easy to exceed 8in Central Valley and north! Astounding to say the least!

000
FXUS64 KMRX 150308 AAB
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1008 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 944 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024

A bit late on the evening update here, but wanted to have a little bit to see some early time steps of the 00z guidance and see the radar trends this evening as snow began to make it into our CWA.

Main changes to the forecast were to update the PoP grids to
reflect current radar trends and pretty strong onset of snowfall
pushing into our area over the next 4-6 hours. Have seen several reports from Knoxville and points west that show snowfall accumulating on surfaces already. Albeit light, the fact that it`s already accumulating certainly lends confidence to the increase in
snowfall totals with the afternoon forecast package earlier today.
Current NBM hourly PoPs show this initial wave of precip moving out around 09z, with a distinct lull thereafter through about 13-14z before the main show moves in after daybreak. This seems very reasonable given the latest CAM guidance, but do not want to try and time a 3-4hr lull in precipitation given that it won`t have a significant impact on expected storm total amounts.

Another notable change was to include some sleet and freezing rain precip types down in the Marion county area. NAM forecast
soundings for Huntsville this evening did indeed show a weak warm
nose through much of the overnight hours. Conceptually this would
extend further ENE into our CWA in the warm SWLY flow around
850mb in that region. We`ve had a report of a light glazing in
parts of eastern Marion county which confirms this thinking. Not
expecting this to last as the column will continue to cool and
precip rates increase. But it is in line with the uncertainty in
ptypes, and storm total accumulations for the southern valley and
far southeast Tennessee.

Lastly, WPC has upped the snowfall amounts for the event in the I-40 corridor and points north. Didn`t want to make wholesale changes to the forecast for the evening update, but this trend doesn`t seem unreasonable given what`s already occurring this
evening. And it is worth noting that for the last few days, NBM
and HREF probabilistic guidance has been showing some healthy
probability of seeing storm total snowfall amounts easily
exceeding 8" across portions of the forecast area. Will let the
overnight shift make any substantive changes that are necessary since they will have the full suite of the latest NBM
probabilistic guidance as well as the 00z models at their

0z NAM is easing off on the warm nose up the eastern valley and filling in. Looks better!

Have dropped off steadily here myself about 4 degrees in the last hour or so.

Look at how the 18z GFS is playing catch up, even since 6z this morning. If you toggle between the runs it’s amazing how much it has had to adjust. It’s coming out right now.

26 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The ICON is actually looking like a major winner here if the MRX forecast verifies. It's 18z run is gonna be a big one for most of us again.

The Icon has had this solution for days. It’s amazing it’s consistency!

1 minute ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

18z GFS stays south but anemic

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Looks better than 12z to me.