Jed33

It’s too bad MS doesn’t have much elevation! Around here 2k ft would not be anything really special and this would be a site to behold! Unfortunately for them, most of the state is under 500ft, and the peaks only max out at 806ft in the far NE corner. Having lived there a good bit of my life though, I wouldn’t trade it for anything. 2 good things they never have to worry about in any part of that state is the rain shadow effect from downsloping and a plateau that hangs up cold air! There’s just not anything tall enough to do either. On the flip side though, they struggle even more with getting cold fronts to pass through bc of latitude. So, I guess there’s that trade off to consider as well. 

Wow! If that’s hail, that’s gonna add up fast!

6 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Nice spy chase @Jed33 lol! Did you give them the Finger? I never saw it but read it passed over Tenn. 

In more concerning news, Kansas lost our 4th conference game at Iowa St. We must right the ship vs Texas in Lawrence tonight!

SEC is in action Tuesday and Wednesday. Tennessee and Alabama play next week, so the SEC race is still pretty open.

 

Lol Jeff! I should have been more prepared. Those trajectory model forecasts had it passing right over this area, but I didn’t think too much about it. I could have gotten some better pics if I had called a buddy who is a photographer and we could have had a neighborhood spy ballon party lol!

Yeah I had just taken the dogs out to walk and thought wait a minute, that’s got to be it. I ran inside to get my wife’s phone bc it makes better pictures than mine. So, I ran back outside and took a few. It was still a little on the dark side, but yeah, there it was!

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

Wow, I think you did get a photo.  Hunter Ward (Asheville Wx) has a potential photo of it over Hendersonville(NC) around 9:00AM.  If you snapped that earlier, good chance that is exactly what that is, and it would match the trajectory!

This was at 7:25 AM eastern

Saw it this morning in the southern sky. I literally thought what star is that, and then I remembered oh yeah, it may be the balloon. So, I took a couple pictures and then compared it to other images online I could find, and I do believe it really was what it was. 

Looks like it’s moving right along. On RadarScope it looks like it’s about to be at John’s house soon.

I did notice by the looks of the radar it does go way back into TX (Deep into the heart of TX, as they say) also it appears the precip around Memphis has more of an easterly, slight NE movement for the time. Meaning more areas of N MS will likey get involved this time and of course middle TN. Looks like it’s about to be knocking on the door Of the western plateau-there is kind of a strange finger that has developed east in Rutherford Co and extending east.

Thanks I missed that. I have wondered all along if that might be possible at the end. The airmass coming down is pretty potent and I may try to squeeze out one last hurrah. I guess we’ll see 

I saw that forecast discussion Carver and almost commented on it. Yeah, it appears the cold is pressing pretty well. It may get to the valley especially the further NW you are, but if anything it should just make the trees glisten around here, which is still a win in this setup. Meanwhile, I hope everyone in W TN and extreme NW MS gets in safely tonight! It is going downhill fast there I hear. A buddy of mine lives in Southaven and he said it’s pouring sleet there right now. 

Looks like it’s about to get real in Memphis! Heavy ZR moving in now temp 28 Dp 26 yep that’ll do it!

I don't know how it will turn out ultimately, but having lived in W. TN and N MS for a good chunk of my life, until we moved to E TN, I've been through these types of setups before. Well remember the '94 ice storm, and many other ones. The cold air often times "out-performs" the models. It has very little resistance coming down the MS river and funneling right into Memphis and NW MS. I remember many times when the forecast offices had to play catch up all through the event. In '94, the precip was supposed to change to rain several different times, but never did. Memphis ended up with over 2" of ZR in that one, and parts of N MS, as impossible as this seems had 6+" of ZR!! Now, to be fair, I don't think this one is quite as cold as the one in '94, nor will have the moisture of '94. Although the air to have made it that cold is around to the north, I don't think it's going to quite move into the midsouth ala '94. It's just the setup with multiple days of over-running precip that reminds me of '94. The fact that the models keep shifting south is putting more areas of N MS and Middle TN in play for some ice, and is really concerning for Memphis, which appears to be just about the bullseye for this event as it stands right now, unless it shifts even further south. This just looks like a classic Memphis and Mid-south ice storm from days gone by. Hopefully, they can avoid what my grandfather used to call an "ice-breakdown".

Well, it may not be snowing here, but take a look at the Northern Rockies. Since we just got back last week from skiing and snowmobiling out there, it’s still on my mind. I’ve been following it more than usual. Anyway, they have had over 3ft of new “cold smoke” as they say in Montana in the last couple days! Big Sky reports 19in in the last 24hrs this AM! That, and an arctic front moving through today will send them well below zero this afternoon and tonight and keep it that way for several days. I guess I will live vicariously through them, while we see if this winter will quit teasing us and finally deliver something. 

Same here! The wind is rough right now!

Lol MRX…Updated to adjust pops and trends based on radar, only to say “precipitation is moving out a bit faster than forecasted, but only barely.” Lol which one is it? Is it moving out fast enough to warrant an update to make something out of it, or not. SMH…Does this go along the same lines as the snowfall maps that were mentioned earlier in this thread? Are they so afraid of being wrong, lol. Anyway, I just thought it was kind of amusing wordage.

Since NW TN is in our forum area and Paducah could, I guess be part of it (might be stretching it though) I’ll post this image, courtesy of RadarScope. It’s got to be hammering, if only for a brief time. I bet it’s fun to see right now! 

It looks like NW TN is reporting mixed precip right now around Dyersburg. Seems a little further south than what was modeled. Looking at RadarScope, Paducah looks to be in a heavy band right now.

22 degrees this morning at the house with one of, if not the biggest frosts I’ve ever seen! No joke, there’s probably close to 1/4in of frost in spots.  I might add that since we’ve lived out here at the lake, fog is a lot more common. I think it contributes to the frost on these colder, calm nights. However, the lake also can moderate my temp a degree or two, especially when the winds stay up, as I’m on a ridge overlooking the lake. I almost never will be able to win in a marginal setup, unfortunately. Even in town, which is about 100ft higher than me, I’ve noticed will just about always have more snow than out here. It could be 32 even at the front of the neighborhood with snow and 33 and rain here. I guess the trade off is a beautiful view of the lake and mtns. 

30 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The thing a about Niña and the Mountain West is to look at snowfall.  They are way above normal.  The likely aren’t that cold this month since the cold emptied itself in December.  I suspect their December is going to even out January or get close to it.  I watch that area super closely.  Many areas have had their best winter in a long time in regards to snow.  That is classic Niña climatology.  Nino winters are often BN for water in Montana and Wyoming.

I can attest firsthand that Montana and Wyoming are getting hammered this winter. We just got back from skiing out there. Everywhere we went from Bozeman to W Yellowstone, there was snow on the ground. In W Yellowstone, there was at least 5ft. With drifts even higher than that! It was cold by our standards (highs in the teens and 20’s and single digits and subzero for lows) but for high elevation out there, that is warm. The thing is, at W Yellowstone, the low temp on the car registered -14F, and that was just a random winter morning. However, that’s the coldest temp without windchill I’ve ever experienced! Previously I’d seen -10F, but that was many years ago. I wish I could have stayed even longer, we had 7in of snow during the last week while we were there. They were saying it’s the best winter they’ve had in quite some time. You know when people from Montana are saying they’re having a good snowy winter, then it must be good! 

Just give me this house in the middle of the picture and I’ll be happy! What an incredible view!

It sure is Carver! It’s just an incredible place! Man, I know I got to get back to work but I sure could stay here awhile longer. Haha, yeah, they’ve been absolutely hammered out here this winter!

One more pic for the evening a random stop to watch Bison trying to graze what little food they could get through the snow!

Here’s a picture of old Faithful. Although it erupts regularly it is not the tallest geyser in the park.

Hey guys, I’ve been keeping up with everything back home, but I’m the meantime, we’ve been skiing at Big Sky Montana and visited Yellowstone today. I’ve got so many pictures I don’t know where to start. I guess I’ll start with a pic of Lone Mtn at the base at Big Sky. The base is around 50” here and we’ve picked up about 5” or so of new snow since we’ve been here. On the way to Yellowstone this AM, the car temp bottomed out at -14F and that is just a random regular day for them. The highest temp I’ve seen since we’ve been here was 28 on Friday when we landed! Pretty much everywhere you go, there is at least 2-3ft on the ground and in W Yellowstone, more like 4-5ft!

We’re in Nashville today and it’s absolutely ripping here right now! There’s nothing sticking here yet, but I’d say there was about 1/2in on the plateau around Monterey. Once we came off the mountain, into Cookeville and the rest of the way, there was only snow in the air. Too bad it’s not a little colder though. If it was, there would probably be 1-2in by now.