Jed33

Very similar to that event we talked about a few weeks ago from 2014 where the mtns got the warm air and cold air was trapped in the valley

18z gfs has a stronger hp dropping in 1055 this time. Looks like the wave is still there. I thought it actually got more of MS and AL in but it doesn’t look like it. Actually the hp makes it to a 1056 at one point!

Oh no man I hate to hear that! RSV is no joke! Pray you get well soon! Maybe these fun model runs will help!

MRX is talking about how this mountain wave event has the potential to be the strongest in a decade or more! It certainly seems like it is going to be quite a strong event! They don’t use language like that often.

2 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Wind Advisory issued for the Valley.


.

Yep! It was needed lol.

Why is the rest of the valley not under an advisory? The winds are absolutely howling here! Gusting to 30+ already

I lived in Memphis in 96 and remember it quite well. Originally Memphis was supposed to get more than Nashville and Knoxville, but the storm ended up being further south and east than originally thought. Now, Memphis picked up some snow but it was only about 1-3 in depending on where you were. There was a sharp gradient across the river in AR where there was nothing. I remember thinking “I sure do wish I lived in East TN” haha! Little did I know that I would someday 

Have a good deal of ice on the road this morning. Surprised there’s not an sps for it. I’ve seen many times where we’d have an sps for it and there was far less ice than this morning. I guess they have other things on their mind this morning. 

0z GFS with a 963mb Low over northern Ohio/southern MI at 132hrs-if you thought the wind was going to be a problem with the system tomorrow! Wow! That low on this run strengthens into a hurricane blizzard for the Ohio valley! I’m surprised there wasn’t more wraparound precip even here with that solution! That was crazy! And, yep, that would definitely pull some cold air down geeze.

Just had a sleet shower here in town as well.

Phase 3 is a good phase in January-March for the Eastern US if I’m not mistaken, right? Seems like it’s not great for December but it gets better for Jan-March?

Here ya go! Sorry for the delay I had to run out of the house for a minute 

16 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Wish I could remember the year. It’s been in the last 6 or 7 years but we had a very interesting system that came through ETn. The forecast for my area was snow to rain and backend snow. NWS thought a couple of inches up front before the changeover. For some crazy reason the valley had CAD north of 40. At my house 30 min north of Knoxville, the temp never broke 30 degrees and it stayed snow 95% of the event. I ended up with 8+ inches but Knoxville got only an inch and it switched to rain pretty quick. I remember my temp was in the upper 20’s and I was watching opps in the foothills and mountains waiting on WAA. I remember Gatlinburg was in the mid 40’s. One of the craziest storms I could remember.


.

That system is archived here still on page 8. 2nd from bottom. I just went back and looked it up if yall would like to read it again. It was so fun watching it fall! The one time the valley had CAD and the mtns went rogue warm!

This has been a pretty steady light snow shower for awhile now. I don’t remember any models except maybe the 3k showing this for this morning. Hopefully it will over perform overall and tonight when cooler temps move in we can get at least some light accums.

Getting a nice snow shower here as well. Too bad it’s not colder could have had a nice little coating.

I have somewhat good news to report on the rainfall department. We picked up another .37 inches of rain after I posted that response last night. That brought my 2day total to .67.  I’ll take it as a win. I’m still behind most people, but gladly take it!

I feel your pain! It’s really been the same here I also have only had .30 total precip the last 2 days and most of that was this morning. Just can’t seem to get precip to make inroads into NE TN and SW VA with this system, and the last one was a total bust here. I’ve only had about 2.5in of precip for the month so far and that’s not enough to make a significant difference in the drought that we have had.

Had a couple other small snow showers and flurries in the last hour. Missed an extremely heavy one myself just to the NE. Hopefully there will be a few more left this evening. At least it’s not a complete shut out as I feared earlier today.

Light graupel just started at the house in Russellville.

22 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, that's what we discussed awhile back in pushing that thing west . Need blocking to help with that as well. May be a quick block pop as wave breaking may get it done.

      Btw, check out the high pressure over our area now. 10.33 mb ! 

I can’t recall a hp of that magnitude (and forecasted to increase to 1040 on some models) where it was so warm. I mean it hasn’t really been a torch today, but it was 56 here today. Ordinarily a 1033 or greater would be good for highs in the 30’s at least. Shoot, I’ve seen single digit lows and highs around 20 with a 1033+. It’s just a testament to the fact that we don’t really have much cold air around right now. Hopefully that will change down the road.

We have seen big storms like this shake up patterns in the past once they move up into the North Atlantic. If it does indeed turn out to be that magnitude of a storm, it could very well be what we need to break up the WAR. Of course, it could also not be effective at that either. Time will tell I guess. 

Good improvement on the NAM! Especially for TRI. Let’s see if it holds or gets even better.

Check out the snowfall graphic from MRX on their website. Seems early for them to be putting something like this out, and extremely generous on the graphic. They must like the NAM. I can’t seem to shrink my picture enough to upload it. Anyway, it shows <.05in from Morristown North and East and of course more in the plateau and mtns. It just surprises me they put that out this evening. I figured they’d wait till tomorrow, or even Sunday. 

19 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Snow showers on RadarScope near Dandridge.  Anyone have any reports of that being legit?

I thought I noticed a little mixing this morning before I left for work-I’m about 45min from Dandridge on Cherokee Lake where Hamblen and Hawkins county border. 

Picked up 0.85in today. So grateful to get that! It won’t end the drought but at least we got a decent rain.