Jed33

Earlier this morning we had a full on snow shower roll through most of the county. It looked ominous as it came over clinch mountain and rolled into the valley. Unfortunately I didn’t get to make a picture or video as I was driving at the time. Lasted maybe 5-10min, but the flakes were quarter sized and bigger.

Just had a sleet/snow shower roll through town here as well. Kinda crazy for April! Kinda like a last hurrah for winter I guess.

Just had some graupel and wet snow mixed in with the rain here at the house!

Yeah the GFS has been steadily increasing amounts for E TN, but can it be trusted. It doesn’t have much support at all from the other models.

Did the NCAA try to hijack the Mjo plots this morning? Lol, for some reason they aren’t displaying right. It’s like a kid took a marker and drew lines all the way from phase 7 through the circle and at the border of phase 3 and 4 across and off the chart haha! 

The cell blowing up to my east around Greeneville looks pretty intense! I just heard it thunder here at the house! We sure are getting several days of lightning and thunder under our belts. That 10 day rule is gonna be put to a serious test!

24° and thick freezing fog this morning here at the house. I didn’t think it was going to get quite this cold last night. It will be interesting to see how trees and things look when the sun comes up in a little bit.

Awe heck it’s lightning and thundering all of a sudden! A decent storm is blowing up in Grangier Co. across the lake from me! Mark it down boys! 10 days!

That’s a good point about the freezing rain locking the snow in. Once you break the top iced over layer, it’s a powdery as it ever was under that ice. Amazing that it’s lasted this long. Only south facing slopes and ditch banks are showing bare spots around here, and of course roof tops that face directly into the sun. Quite literally one of the longest lasting events I’ve seen in many years!

And still more sub zero to come Sunday morning as well! MRX has me at -4 to -2 for the low! I don’t ever remember two fronts this strong in one week! This is definitely top 1 or 2 all time for me. Wish it was this way every year!

14 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I was thinking that just a minute ago.  I think many (besides the foothills and Chattanooga and TRI) have their seasonal totals.  I am about halfway there.  I truly don't believe that was the last week of snowy weather.  I do, however, think that was our worst week of winter.

I was just thinking about that earlier today. Right now I’m sitting at almost 9.25in on the year. That would be slightly over the seasonal average on the new totals, but shy by about an inch and a half or so on the old totals. This week has really, pretty much been “deep winter” at least for my area. I have not been above freezing since Sunday afternoon. Hit 32 yesterday but that was it. Doesn’t look like we’ll get any warmer through the weekend. So, yeah, I also don’t see any colder periods with even heavier snow than this week to come in this winter. I could be wrong, but it would be extraordinary if it happened. That said, I don’t think we have seen our last snowfall event of the winter. February could definitely bring a return to these conditions again, it’s just that I don’t see it having as much of a staying effect as this week. If it doesn’t, well we can look back and be thankful for this week bc it’s been many many years since we’ve had a week like this one during the winter. That alone pushes this winter into my favorite winters category!

Moderate to heavy snow band setting up here right now! Love it!

Getting some light freezing rain here now.

Sleet starting to fall here.

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I assume you realize that you turned out to have the right idea with Knoxville's actual low being 0 and Tri's actual low being +3 vs yesterday's 12Z GFS progging -14/-13. I counted at least the four prior runs as well as the 18Z having something similar. However, interestingly in case you didn't see it, the subsequent 3 runs starting with the 0Z suddenly warmed ~10 and thus were much closer to reality. We agree that it takes near perfect radiational conditions for the GFS to be close in these situations when it's extremely cold. That may have happened in some cities of TN from what I've read. If anyone could be more specific about these cities and post the 1/16 12Z GFS prog compared to what verified, please let us know. But most of the time, extreme GFS runs like that 12Z run you noted for Knoxville and Tri seem to end up quite a bit too cold. I first learned about this cold bias over fresh snowcover from a pro met whom I know.

 I see that the -14 progged Knoxville low was a whopping 44 BN! So, the actual low of 0 was a "mere" 30 BN.

Yes, but like John said, TYS doesn’t tell the story very well, bc it’s not even in Knox Co. It was on the far southern end of where the heavier band setup, and like most airports definitely has a UHI effect. That said, the -14° was too extreme, and I did notice right at go time that the GFS corrected by warming up. However, in the places where there was 8+ inches of snow that fell, sub zero readings were common. Especially in low lying areas of those places. This included most of Knox and surrounding counties. I hit -1° at my house, but I live on a ridge overlooking Cherokee Lake. Many places away from the lake and lower elevation went lower than that into the -5 to -10 range. So, while not perfect, it wasn’t too terrible imo.

I live on the east side of Cherokee, overlooking the lake, but didn’t see any flurries. Instead just the dandruff ice crystals I remember as a kid falling after these big arctic air masses. Now, there have been some clouds though and maybe it’s possible some had flurries in them.

Seeing ice crystals float by now! Such a rare phenomenon in our area. It’s been years since I’ve seen it.

Bottomed out at -1 here it looks like. There’s been off and on high clouds and a slight breeze that has kept us from really tanking here.

8 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I'm already down to 8. These air masses in January, with snow cover, hit hard. 

I’m also at 8 here dropping 2-3 degrees an hour since about 5:30

Spoke too soon. That one was more juicy than the average clipper! Looks good.

This looks like a clipper but it’s been so long since we had one I forgot what they looked like! They used to always lay down 1-3in to the north of the low as it slid by. 

2 minutes ago, dwagner88 said:

The calcium is good to around zero. That's what we've been using up there all day. Salt and brine are already worthless at current temps. We are trying to get a lane cleared in each direction before the sun goes down.

Good to know about the calcium! I didn’t know that was used. 

14 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

How cold will the melting agents work down to? My 4 lanes around here have standing water on them and they are all wet. Seems like that’s going to be a problem when the sun starts to set.


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Seems like about 18° is about it for the regular brine. If they put beet juice in it, I believe they add it as long as the temp is somewhere between 5-20°. However I don’t think it’s that effective below 18°. Below that I don’t think there’s much you can do if you can’t plow it or scrape it. Just have to wait until the sun comes back out to help with it.

6 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Going to be many places likely below zero tonight.  After substantial snowfall for many, temps are about to get crazy cold.

I was looking at that earlier. Check out the GFS. It is way colder than the cmc or the rgem! Can’t believe it will actually be that cold -14 in Knoxville and -13 at Tri. Seems about 10 degrees too cold. I guess if winds go completely calm and the sky stays completely clear it could make a run at that with this kind of deep snowpack 

4 minutes ago, Bigbald said:

There is a thin line of a flizzard that is causing havoc on the roads, I am guessing the front pushing through and squeezing out the last remaining moisture.  It is nearly parrellel to I 81.

That’s a really common area to get a band of snow to set up after these powerhouse arctic fronts push through. In this area it is often referred to as the “Bay’s Mountain Effect”. It is not uncommon to see this terrain enhancement in that area and there is another area northwest of Sevierville that does it too. Looked like it happened this morning as well.