Jed33

4 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

We have a flizzard downtown. Weird that it didn’t move in, it just developed

This looks very similar to how that band just formed out of nowhere yesterday afternoon. Direction is a little different-that one moved S/SW and this one seems to be slowly creeping NE going to be interesting to see where it goes.
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37 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

A little wrap around moisture in the valley


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That band means business! It turned everything white in a hurry here!

Wow it is absolutely ripping here in town! This band just blew up out of nowhere! Got a heavy dusting going on now! We’ll see how long it lasts.

Light snow mixing in with the rain now.  I’m not sure what the gfs got ahold of yesterday but it’s snowfall output on this system is laughable to say the least! Maybe at least we can get an hour to watch it fall this AM.

Nothing better than having a good snow like this and getting snow showers/flurries all day with temps below freezing. Looks like my high temp occurred around or just after midnight-28. Today’s daytime high was 27.

Now have between 2-2.5 just depends on where I measure. The wind was ripping as much as the snow was with this AM clipper. Awesome!

Clipper snow moving in here this AM! It actually snowed more after I went to bed. With the additional snow this AM, I may be able to make a run at 2in. Roads are sure covered. Temp 25.

Up to 1.25in now and still snowing pretty good. Much better than I was expecting honestly it took forever for it to ever materialize here!

Really coming down again here. Somewhere between 0.5-0.75in right now. I struggled mightily this evening to try to get under any bands, but there was a steady light snow of fine flakes. Finally a decent band is moving over. Maybe I’ll make it to an inch.

Just started ripping here too!

After spending about 5.5hrs in the dry slot/downslope, finally have sleet and snow again

Both also have a clipper overnight Wednesday into Thursday. Man no rest for the weary! Haha!

I have actually bottomed out at 30 myself. Roads are improving a little but it was sick as could be there for a minute 

25 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

For those living in E TN, modeling as we kind of guessed...moved westward overnight with the exception of the GFS.  The 0z CMC and Euro both have a significant winter storm signal next week from E TN into the Piedmont.  All ensembles have the system to some extent.  

Wow! I know the gfs doesn’t have the greatest storm signal for next week, but snow or not, that is about as impressive of a winter pattern modeled that I’ve ever laid eyes on! Wow! Almost unbelievable 

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

We are on the front end of this.  Right now rain, sleet, and snow with freezing rain.  Looks like a dry slot and then we wait for the backside of this.  Total slop fest here and mess!  We must have dropped below freezing as raised surfaces are now coated with a thin glaze of ice.

Same here Carver I just hope the deform band materializes!

In a lull right now but the roads are slushy from the snow and sleet and even believe I had some ZR at the end.  Fun while it lasted. There was close to a half in of snow and sleet there at one point.

1 minute ago, Dsty2001 said:

Also to note, had to run out about an hour ago and the tires were spinning some, so it's getting slick on the roads already

Yes I just saw some ice starting to build up on the road in front of my house. I assume that’s from the sleet mixing in.

Got some sleet mixing in here too but the flake size of the snow is very impressive!

Just woke up to see it’s snowing and have a nice heavy dusting! Temp is 32.

1 minute ago, PowellVolz said:

Low pressure goes due north 150 miles in the last two time frames. Nothing would surprise me with this system but that doesn’t seem realistic without some blocking it seems.





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I don’t think I’ve ever seen a low pressure do these kind of movements that the models are spitting out. I mean, a 2 frame increment is 2hrs in real time. So, the low is going to move 150mi due north in 2hrs time only to transfer again later? I don’t think I’ve ever seen a low pressure transfer twice in the same storm. However, that’s what these models are implying. I will have to see it to believe it.

That was a killer deform band on the back side of the 12z NAM!

Oh I know, I totally get it. It is crazy how they give the southern valley (and really the Central Valley too) the same criteria as SW Virginia and the mtns. I guess that’s how they roll though.

12 minutes ago, WinterWonderland said:

I get that this storm is difficult to forecast, but really surprised that NWS has issued absolutely nothing for the east TN Valley. I would expect at least a Hazardous Weather statement of some sort since we have the possibility of wintry precip in the area. It's just odd. 

It’s got to be because they don’t know what to do, but you’re right. The least they could do would be to issue a hazardous weather statement. I also think according to NWS protocol they don’t usually issue wwa’s this soon. Winter storm watches, yes, advisories, no. Also, HUN and FFC have lower standards than MRX for WSW criteria (2in is all it takes there. It’s 4in here.) so, what would be a warning in AL or GA, here would only be an advisory. These would just be my humble opinions on why they don’t have anything yet.

3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I think part of the problem we are seeing with the lp locations, has to do with the fact that this big ball of energy is just dropping in from the NNW. Normally with a bowling ball system like this it rolls in from the 4 corners and so pops an initial low in TX or the Gulf, but this system already has a surface low dropping in and so as the energy makes the turn, that low gets confused ( I know its not alive, but hear me out) wrt which boundary to jump to. Does it jump up into the eastern TN valley? Does it jump down to the toasty Gulf coastal waters? Does it stay near its energy? And while all this is going on, the system is moving, so pretty soon the Gulf stream becomes an option too. 

 

I think we want this energy to drop in so far south that there is never a doubt about where the low pops: the Gulf. I wish I knew more about the physics and meteorology of surface low formation so I could convince myself that the warm Gulf waters would override these other options. 

Excellent posts this morning. I agree Holston, we have had several other storms in the past couple years where the models couldn’t figure out where to run the low pressure centers. Some bounced east of the mtns, some west, and some right up the spine. Until the energy gets sorted out, going to be some bouncing around, but this is nothing we haven’t seen before. Just gotta be patient and see how it plays out. I know it’s hard to do though lol.

It’s still coming down moderately now even though the radar says it shouldn’t be this intense. Gotta be below the beam of the radar