The Ole Bucket

Saw the potential for the first flakes of the year tonight in my new home... and made me nostalgic for this part of the forum. I wish y'all the best this upcoming winter. Make it an overperformer!

For tonight, a wave rotates through the base of the upper trough across Texas and Oklahoma and toward the Mississippi River. This is expected to spread some light precipitation eastward through the overnight period. It`s looking increasingly likely that the far southern part of our forecast area will get in on at least some light precipitation associated with this overnight. The temperature at all levels will be below freezing, with the forcing for this precipitation being generated at 700 MB and above. Thus snow will be the precipitation type expected. With a significant amount of dry air beneath this forcing layer, we expect that overall amounts will be held down somewhat with snow ratios not being very efficient. That said, the likelihood of at least some snow has increased, and at this stage we expect that a dusting of snow is likely across southeast Missouri into southern Illinois with up to 1 inch possible. Some snowflakes could fall as far north as St Louis, although accumulations that far north are unlikely. This will exit quickly to the east Saturday morning as the upper trough axis shifts east. Saturday will likely be the coldest day of this air mass as the core of the cold air will be over our region. Highs will only make it into the 30s with lows Saturday night falling off into the teens to low 20s. Surface high pressure moving across the area will lead to good radiational cooling conditions, so some typically colder spots could be even colder.

Colleagues report, and showed me via video.. accumulating snow in Staunton. This image provided by local news of conditions there:

It's the perfect day for a funeral. In a staggering coincidence, I had to help set up for a funeral today (not related to us).

Sleet in Charlottesville.

What a difference 24 hours make. An absolutely gorgeous Easter Sunday yesterday here. A slight chill in the AM which was fine while I was wearing a suit. Perfect for pictures with the family as the morning went on. Then pleasant and not too warm for egg hunts. This morning? Upper 30s. Gray. Rain. Misery.

Blizzard warnings official at the top of the Blue Ridge https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=LWX&wwa=blizzard warning

Now almost all fatties in Charlottesville. A bit of sleet mixed in. With the wind and the wet snow.. the word I would use for current conditions is “gnarly”

Still just rain and sleet in Charlottesville. Wind is really picking up.

Missed that Sterling set some very localized WSWs in Augusta and Nelson counties.

I was feeling bullish about Snowtown USA scoring another jackpot but now...

Lock it up and then bring on spring for our backyard. (I actually do need the warm weather... trying to do some last-minute home repairs/improvements before the house goes on the market)

Charlottesville snowtown bay bay

18z GFS going south of prior runs

Disgusting mix of rain, sleet and mangled flakes in Crozet (checking in from friend’s place)

"Fringe Job February" has a certain ring too.

Could be a nice little dusting. Big thing to me is that this run seems to stay pretty cold after the weekend storm. I'll absolutely take chilly rain over ice to wash the old chunks of former glacier away midweek and then stack fresh powder on the weekend. Basically an ideal run.

Sign me up for that weekend. Everyone who was fringed or missed out entirely from the coastal gets raked.

Also would give STL its largest single-storm snowfall ever. Widespread watches and warnings already hoisted.

Yeah they really get the bad end of these kinds of events and are starting to really take it on the chin from tornadoes too. Oh also, if this run of the GFS verifies, this would be the 2nd-largest single-storm snowfall in St. Louis history. Only surpassed by one in 1890.

I realize it's outside our geo, but taken at face value, that's an insane icestorm at the AR/MO/KY/TN borders. And really across a broad stretch of KY along I-64. Holy smokes.

Yeah definitely virga. In fact, I was going to make that my obs 25F, moderate virga. Looks like it will stay below freezing all day for a second straight day. Closing out January nicely!

Can confirm it's a bluebird day out there. Still just 23F, not expected to get above freezing. Wind up a little bit but the sun is shining, the roads are fine and the scenes are picturesque. Coming just short of 2" puts us one coating event away from yearly climo. All in January. Let's go February!

Getting the barest edge of the coastal. most likely. Should be a last hurrah.

If that ends up being an official spotter total anywhere, Charlottesville will hit its annual snowfall average today. Just need one big boy to make it a pretty special winter. And now we head into peak snow climo...