The Ole Bucket

The county just to the south of mine here in SE Missouri had an Ice Storm Warning with the Sun/Mon event that absolutely verified. Folks still without power today, now getting socked with 6" of snow today. Would not recommend. I mean, I would recommend the snow. I wouldn't recommend the whole being without power for a week and snow covering a half inch of ice thing.

That Lambo in ATL lol

Beautiful view from the home office. Ripping.

You all probably have seen also though what has happened further south. DFW and ATL were a lot wetter than originally anticipated. And slightly colder. Radar is apparently showing sleet in the metro but it's actually falling as very heavy, wet snow. With a layer of sleet underneath it. Just an absolute mess. Reminds me of what we got with last weekend's storm here.

I'm saying that the models picked up on it pretty darn well in my area anyway. Here the QPF I think was like 0.5?! And we're on course for 5". Nice to have temps in the upper 20s to stay on course with the 10:1 ratio. Kuchera and the 10:1 were almost identical for the last 24 hours. And they're seeming to be fairly on the money. In Missouri I'd say that the northern extent was very well modeled. I was extremely skeptical, as were a lot of people in the Western states forum that it would hold that way. Surely the cutoff had to be much sharper than what the models were saying. That always freaking happens. Not this time. Of course, the Appalachians could throw a big wrench into it for you all when it heads East. But so far, the sharp cutoffs we assumed were not being modeled correctly have not materialized. We're headed to a nice 4-5" here. And STL, about 65 miles north of me, is on track for about 2-2.5." Exactly what last nights NAM and HRRR were saying.

Believe that this thing has juice for those in the strike zone. Fairly well ripping here in southeast MO. Likely to live up to the late warning NWS posted yesterday. Tulsa folks said they are on track to get 7" or so. Crushing through AR and TN. HRRR seems to be verifying.

Coming along fairly well now. Mod snow here I'd say.

An interesting historical thing to track for Jan. 20, especially if the snowstorm doesn't materialize, would be whether DC has its coldest Inauguration since Reagan in 1985. That was truly wild with noontime temp at 7F. Images from Obama's first term make it look very cold but actually it was 28F. Wind chills were in the teens though. Not bringing politics into it at all, but it's fascinating to see how often DC has had truly garbage weather for presidential inaugurations. Few days where it's been sunny and mild. A lot of cold or drizzly or even sleet (Nixon!) and March snowstorms back in the day. https://www.weather.gov/lwx/events_Inauguration

Wow already? Probably only an inch or so here thus far. But the much heavier stuff is to come. Still have the bar at 4"

Hah! They finally expanded it. First time since moving here about 3 years ago that we’ve had 2 warnings within a single week

If the NWS is gonna be stubborn and not move the warning to Ste Gen county, I'm setting the bar at 4" for this thing.

Really weird they didn't slap watches up beforehand. You can always downgrade to a WAA!

12z dropping a 12"+ in places across central AR. Almost 6" for our Tulsa friends. Also says I'm gonna get 5" I'd be fine without an absolute plastering. The ice is having a hard enough time melting on side roads from last weekend here. But then, if it really wants to shellack our area.. I'm also A-OK with that. Should be pretty easy to clear this stuff by Sunday.

The NAM is gonna NAM. Ultra juicy. Not that anyone would complain!

Warning was moved NW by one county in my area. Now just need a bit more and we’ll hit mine as well. Not often SEMO sees an Ice Storm Warning followed by WSW within the span of a week.

18z NAM not quite as favorable as the 12z to those who want the storm to get northwest a little bit. But still better than the 6z.

12z GFS basically a replica of the previous run.

Ste. Genevieve, MO. Small town along the Mississippi about an hour south of STL.

Absolutely. But this is one case where I do worry that while the whole storm may indeed drift north the cutoff may be sharper than what is being modeled. Feels like it depends on that other little feature to the north and west...

Always assume the storm will go north! Always! I've lived on the borderline for so long that I always assume anything that shows me in the jackpot (like the last time about 5-6 days out) will inevitably go north. This may be a rare time where that phenomenon may pay off positively!

Now it's time for the climo trend to kick in and bring the heavier precip shield a bit more north...

Maybe this is just a bias from my days of tracking when I lived in VA... but I feel like right now you'd prefer the models to be a bit south at this point. Certainly shifted north last time once we got within a couple days before the event. Then held steady-ish, though I for sure got way more sleet than expected and much less FZRA (not that I'm complaining) Some of this "Texas is gonna get a foot" seems absurd to me. Surely it has to come north some!