The Ole Bucket

Hah! They finally expanded it. First time since moving here about 3 years ago that we’ve had 2 warnings within a single week

If the NWS is gonna be stubborn and not move the warning to Ste Gen county, I'm setting the bar at 4" for this thing.

Really weird they didn't slap watches up beforehand. You can always downgrade to a WAA!

12z dropping a 12"+ in places across central AR. Almost 6" for our Tulsa friends. Also says I'm gonna get 5" I'd be fine without an absolute plastering. The ice is having a hard enough time melting on side roads from last weekend here. But then, if it really wants to shellack our area.. I'm also A-OK with that. Should be pretty easy to clear this stuff by Sunday.

The NAM is gonna NAM. Ultra juicy. Not that anyone would complain!

Warning was moved NW by one county in my area. Now just need a bit more and we’ll hit mine as well. Not often SEMO sees an Ice Storm Warning followed by WSW within the span of a week.

18z NAM not quite as favorable as the 12z to those who want the storm to get northwest a little bit. But still better than the 6z.

12z GFS basically a replica of the previous run.

Ste. Genevieve, MO. Small town along the Mississippi about an hour south of STL.

Absolutely. But this is one case where I do worry that while the whole storm may indeed drift north the cutoff may be sharper than what is being modeled. Feels like it depends on that other little feature to the north and west...

Always assume the storm will go north! Always! I've lived on the borderline for so long that I always assume anything that shows me in the jackpot (like the last time about 5-6 days out) will inevitably go north. This may be a rare time where that phenomenon may pay off positively!

Now it's time for the climo trend to kick in and bring the heavier precip shield a bit more north...

Maybe this is just a bias from my days of tracking when I lived in VA... but I feel like right now you'd prefer the models to be a bit south at this point. Certainly shifted north last time once we got within a couple days before the event. Then held steady-ish, though I for sure got way more sleet than expected and much less FZRA (not that I'm complaining) Some of this "Texas is gonna get a foot" seems absurd to me. Surely it has to come north some!

Currently in a bit of a dry slot in SE Missouri, but basically none of the FZRA has materialized in my area. Very light snow at the moment after about 2 inches of pounding sleet earlier this AM. Also, NWS St. Louis has slightly increased totals to my north. And added this nice gem: We also did add thunder to the forecast as there have been notable convective elements and occasional lightning. So yeah, this storm has a history of thunder and lightning. I can't imagine that changing when it gets to you all.

Definitely seems a touch colder than modeled IMBY anyway. Was looking at a forecast just hours ago that had no snow during the day. Just sleet and FRZA. Currently light snow and 25F at my location. No mixing.

Very heavy sleet here in SEMO, just north of the ice storm area. Just hammering the house. Glad to have our FRZA forecast lighten up. Wish this was all snow though. Gutting to have it ripping snow just 50-70 miles north.

Right in the middle of it out here in SE Missouri. So far a touch colder than the original forecast. FRZA totals are likely gonna come in lighter for us. Which is great. Pretty heavy sleet this early AM which is less great but I prefer that over ice. Anyway, she’s definitely juicy and right now doing OK on temps if you’re a borderline area. When she shows up tomorrow in your backyard I wish you luck old friends!

Good luck to y’all tonight. Back edge of the system headed your way started ho-hum with some rain around noon CT. By 1pm it was hammering sleet. By 1:30.. thundersleet. By 2pm, thundersnow with visible bolts of lightning. Just an absolute scene in SE Missouri. Storm total will probably come in only around 3” but it single-handedly saved winter with all the phenomenon I’ve never experienced. Hope you get the same!

Absolute scenes today in SEMO. Thundersleet, thundersnow, lightning bolts and 1” per hour rates for a short period. Total mess all over the roads Only wild for about 2 hours but it was a scene. Probably 3” of snow and sleet here in Ste. Genevieve

Looks like this system worked out for a lot of folks. Really glad to finally see a good OBS thread in this sub for the first time in awhile! Same system was supposed to give us out here in the middle of the country (SE Missouri) nothing… woke up and there was a surprise inch. Wind absolutely howling right now at 20+mph pushing the wind chill down to single digits. Only advisory we have though is a wind chill advisory for the next couple days. Haven’t gotten a big snow here this year unlike last year… but definitely a “deep winter” week and a half with multiple light snow days and subzero wind chills Congrats to y’all and may this pattern reset again this winter after the coming warmup!

They cancelled schools around here for… an inch. An inch! I mean, look, beggars can’t be choosers and I like surprise snow even if it is small amounts. Especially with this cold (it’s 3F this AM with wind chill of -11F) but the kids can’t even play in this! Worst kind of snow day possible. Not enough to play in and kids now will drive all parents insane.

Steady snow with some pretty gusty winds here in Southeast Missouri. Don’t know that it’ll really accumulate given how wet it is and temps but the change from earlier today is pretty striking.

Sir this is a family forum. Images like this are not permitted.