bwt3650

Warms not bad...+10 in October is great weather. In fact, I think you and I root for a warm Jan because that could still be snowy af; and no one likes sitting on a chair lift with -30 wind chills. But the bs 360 warm anomaly, never going to snow again, winters over, cc is going to make NE Florida, CC is responsible for every warm up trolling gets old. I'll admit though, Nov 10th through about Dec 10th I hate the warmth as it delays the start of the season. That's one of the most important periods of ski season to get things going.

What's the typical timing of the ridge build to the response of the cold dump? Is there a seasonal variation to where the cold is focused?

Snow is not a team sport.

No doubt, but are you seeing any prolonged November torch? It looks like a lot of battles of extreme temps.

There’s that record warm Halloween showing up again…melting makeup and diarrhea or something. Early November torch on the GEFS too. Just as much chance of verifying as the 384 torch a few days ago. .

Black mountain is going to open this year after Indy Pass saves them for the season...apparently looking for new ownership.

No palm trees, but check out January in vermont… .

it would be nice if we could go back to the 80s with all those snowy winters before global warming took over in the 2005-2015 era.

we really should start looking at winter 2024-2025. It's not going to snow at all this winter. November is shot; then we have the grinch to deal with, then sun angle starts becoming a problem in January. Not worth getting invested.

November is gone..Halloween is a torch! Nothing to see here. Another 30 degree shift at 0z? .

First accumulation for the northern greens this weekend? .

Last year was a top 5 pile of dog crap in huge metro areas. Even up in Jay, it was "ok" saved by late Feb and March, but the pack was 0-5 around new years at 1800'. This year will not repeat. Slow, gradual starts to winter are just fine. No need for October snow. GEFS look normal once past next week, which would get snow possibilities in NNE where it should be in early Nov.

Some know the temps for thanksgiving, so two weeks should be easy. .

i don't know anything about the place. Looks like a small little local hill not really around much. I hate seeing feeder hills that get kids into the sport close. I'm just surprised at the timing. Ski areas make their money from Christmas until Presidents day and I don't see a place like this making giant moves either way in market share. I would have thought they would have tried to make it through the money making period and if it didn't work, call it quits in the spring. But as you said, bad debt has no timing.

i can see the social media comments now "vail causes closure of Black mountain by paying workers $20-$25 an hour"

sad...but seems kind of odd to make that decision a month before the season starts.

I’m no expert, but I demo’s the mantras and they were too heavy for me..I liked stockli storm riders the best for on piste. They edged steep groomers the best and I could carve better than my vokls. Like the rustlers 2nd. Just another option to consider. .

By the weekend looks good too. .

Oct 10th thru 20th seems to be about right to get these kind of first snows the last few years here. this was Oct 17th 2020 and 2021 was almost exactly the same date. I don’t remember last year, but I feel it was later. .

Last 2 GFS runs say we get our October opening at K-mart.

The furnace is over and the rest of the month looks seasonable to somewhat cool, with some legit cold shots possible in fantasy land. Hoping to see some mangled flakes on the peaks by mid-month. Let's hope the nino delivers the moisture and the latitude plus elevation does it's thing.

I’ve personally never understood the fascination. I’ll walk outside and say to my wife, “ wow, cool colors” and then move on. People spend whole vacations staring at leaves. To each their own I guess. .

Jay today…I’d call that peak.

The 90s saw a lot of October openings. 2018 was the last October opening. In a recent interview, their GM was talking about how their focus is more on the late season, than the early season, which surprised me. He didn't say they won't do it, but talked about the incredible expense and how production is so piss poor that time of year. I got the impression they would still do it with the right cold window, but won't push it like they used too. Superstar is where I think they would take any available window just for a few world cup piles.

100 percent right on the furnace to start..I would say this is more than just “mild down” by the 9th as modeled. Don’t know if it lasts, but call it what it is. .