Jim Martin

Risk for severe weather tomorrow in the lower Great Lakes.

1.03" of rain here in Findlay from last night's storms.

Slight risk for severe weather extended into Northwest Ohio for today.

Looking like an active severe weather day possible for Tuesday. The Storm Prediction Center mentioning a fairly good risk for discrete supercells.

Latest tidbit from SPC on the afternoon Day 2 Outlook... CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL, A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO MUCH OF ALABAMA. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z IN EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND NEAR BIRMINGHAM SHOW MLCAPE VALUES REACHING THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION, THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL CREATE STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR GENERALLY IN THE 60 TO 65 KT RANGE. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. THE SHEAR SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL FORMATION ESPECIALLY FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE HAILSTONES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER, WIND DAMAGE AND A TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE. A STRONG TORNADO MAY OCCUR WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN BECOME DOMINANT. THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL IS ALSO FORECAST SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF WESTERN GEORGIA WHERE VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY TAKE PLACE DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY INCREASE BY EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY IF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CAN ORGANIZE.

Surprised none of you in here have mentioned the risk for severe weather on Monday...

From last night in Southeast Arkansas... 0221 300 PINE BLUFF JEFFERSON AR 3423 9200 MAXIMUM HAIL SIZE MEASURED WAS 3.50 INCHES. (LZK)

20 years ago next month was the famous Nashville, Tennessee tornado that was captured by WSMV Channel 4 and NewsChannel 5 as it moved through.

15z SREF showing eastern Arkansas, northwest Mississippi, and far west Tennessee with the best potential for tornado activity Saturday evening.

shvchat 2018/01/22 2:59 PM iembot Winnsboro [Wood Co, TX] BROADCAST MEDIA reports TSTM WND DMG at 21 Jan, 8:27 PM CST -- MAYOR OF WINNSBORO TX DECLARED STATE OF EMERGENCY DUE TO DAMAGE ON NORTH SIDE OF TOWN, EXTENSIVE DAMAGE REPORTED TO HOMES AND BUSINESSES THROUGHOUT THE AREA, POWER OUT TO MUCH OF THE AREA, TREE THROUGH HOME ON WINN DRIVE AND FM 852 WEST.

The 18z GFS went absolutely berzerk in Northern Ohio for next weekend. Though some of the precipitation on this run is mixed.

This supercell has recycled itself multiple times so far tonight. It could be going through the cycle again.

Tornado Watch forthcoming.