From the Storm Prediction Center...
...Day 6/Tue - Southern/Central Plains...
Guidance has become more consistent in ejecting a stronger shortwave
impulse across the southern Rockies and into the Plains on Tuesday.
Rich boundary layer moisture will have had enough time to surge
northward ahead of this feature while a lee low deepens over the
northern/central Plains. Confidence in an organized severe threat
developing in the vicinity of a dryline across parts of central KS
into western/central OK and perhaps the eastern TX Panhandle into
north TX has increased enough to introduce 15% probabilities. The
severe threat may extend further north into the mid-MO Valley ahead
of the eastward progressing surface cyclone, but confidence in
quality moisture that far north is low at this time.