stadiumwave

I'll be honest, I'm surprised at the magnitude of cold thats showing up on OP & Ensembles. I thought we'd get cold but was not sure deep cold was achievable this winter. But the OP & Ensemble signals are strong. And I'm referring to west of APPS. I'm not in northeast but the northeast does not have to have the deepest of the cold to get the winter storms with the -NAO block they're likely. If fact I'd argue if you want snow you certainly do not want the heart of the cold where it will be dryer

12z CFS Weeklies just had its best looking 4-6 weeks on the model its had yet.

0z Euro still has a clean SPV split at 10mb & 50mb

The JAN 9 potential winter storm...the A.I products are closer to the 12z EURO & ironically the BSR correlation. BSR is not 1:1 correlation on systems always but can be close at times. Just noticed A.I. & 12z EPS much closer:

FWIW, the BSR would support more of the 12z EPS look, rather than the GEFS. Not any sign of troublesome ridging in the east through JAN 20ish time frame. BSR has a correlation of general pattern 17-21 days later. The dates on the graphs are based on 19 days. So when looking & it says JAN 10th, you're talking about JAN 8-12 ish, so dates are not exact. Click on JAN 2024 icon & then at bottom of page the image shows. Top bar daily surface, bottom is daily 500: http://joe.organicforecasting.com/BsrEar/Bsr/

Add - 18z GEFS has now split at 10mb & 50mb

12z EPS Days 11-15....freaking beautiful Day 15

12z EURO split SPV at 10mb & 50mb EDIT: I'm wondering if this trends stronger again.

I know that. I'm just wondering about verification

Is anyone familar with the science behind this MJO page? https://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/ It's showing this for El Nino, JAN, Phase 2: I see some similarities to the above image with the upcoming pattern. This for El Nino, JAN Phase 3....this is the one that took me for a loop...it's not bad at all: This is La Nina, JAN, Phase 3: Anyone know the accuracy?

0z EPS 11-15 MJO forecast not all that different from JAN, 2010 which is RED line. JAN, 2010 the block carrying over from DEC relaxed all but the first few days. At this point a better block for JAN is showing up through mid-month as seen above verses JAN, 2010 (Late DEC & FEB were best -NAO blocks that winter). PNA had recovered a bit to more neutral in 2010,not so much now. So better -NAO block but stronger -PNA. Pattern may be pretty good for everyone west of APPS for the larger part. Strong cold shots possible in heartland. East of Apps still has a shot of winter weather with any secondary SLP's on the southern end of cold fronts.

I'd also like to say those who championed the -PDO (I call a hybrid -PDO) thinking it would lead to deep, constant -PNA. Well, the observations pooey that. It's been anything but the case. We've spent very little time in -PNA territory since early SEPT. With the SST's the way they are it's muting the effect of what is a strong -PDO on the index. Just keep that in mind. I think the PDO index is faulty here. The weak orientation of a further west mean trough coming up is going to be due mainly to MJO, Phase 3....not -PDO. BTW, I think it's weak PHASE 3 & organic methods show the trough swinging back & forth & certainly not constant ridging in the east. The greatest threat of stubborn ridging will be in NE from -NAO, which sometimes still works out well (2010 +anomalies in NE heights but still had some big snows).

#1 GEPS still spilts for a bit #2 EPS still splits at 50mb, 100mb, & 150mb #3 EURO at 10mb looks like it's on its way to splitting but also it's warming orientation is different than other models pushing than main lobe to North America #4 GEFS & GEPS have additional warming event after the first event starting over Asia around JAN 14, also on GFS #5 With all that said, a full SSW is not needed to get to where winter lovers would like to be. We're likely headed that way either way & whether we get a full SSW the SPV looks to keep taking hits remaining weak.

GFS OP & GEFS both advertising another warming strat warming episode beginning on the heels of this & really ramping up by mid-Jan. If so then no doubt stays weak a long while. 2nd warming may deliver the goods if it occurs.

0z Euro starts to split SPV at 10mb & 50mb on day 10 (end of run).

80-81, 83-84, 84-85, 87-88 were big snow years in the extreme lower OV.

CFS making its final moves for JAN prediction in its monthlies: Pulled the warm anomaly bubble a little NW. Thought this was interesting:

I know there seemed to be some concern models have been a little temperate with SPV forecast yesterday & today...but 0z GFS shows an SPV in serious trouble:

It'll be interesting to see for sure.

#opportunist Same with Arctic Sea Ice.

Simon just tweeted some differences between the 51 member medium range & 101 member extended range:

Correct! Which we've been saying since early DEC. I'm anxious to see what the EPS 101 member ensemble says. It just seems bizarre that almost 80% of members would have a u-wind reversal to 13% 36 hrs later.

GEFS, GEPS seem to be backing off as well. They all have an event just not as strong as previously. Simon Lee says the SPV has been knocked around since NOV & that even if this is not a "knock out punch" it will probably still get the job done as farcas sensible weather, or at least that's how I took it. BTW, it's a good thread.