CPcantmeasuresnow

Sometimes I wonder why I venture out of our homeland.

Happens all the time. Everyone acts like where they are is where everyone is. No concept the forum runs a general 75 mile radius north south east and west of Central Park.

I wouldn't call that very likely. Very likely you changed to sleet at some point I give better odds of that. Probability of over a foot in central Suffolk? 22.7%

Anywhere on Long Island or a specific spot?

Why would we want it to melt? I've had snow cover almost 40 days so far this winter. I'm hoping for 80.

Let's hope. It still irritates me how they messed up the Jan 1996 blizzard measurements. That should be a 24plus storm but somehow at the end they gave us 20. Newark airport measured 28 LGA 24 and right in the middle 5 miles in either direction a 20 from Central Park. That was the days of the infamous Central Park zookeeper doing the measurements.

I'm not gonna say it's impossible because in this set up, they could get near 18 inches. What is impossible is them ever accurately measuring 18 inches. Especially in a long duration storm, they usually f up as only they can.

For Southern New Jersey that's a big snow. It's not like we're talking about southern New York.

It's four days now with an early Sunday am start time.

-1 here. First sub zero this winter. ❄️

Sandyston in Sussex county recorded -32 in the January 1994 cold outbreak and is probably more legitimate although they do recognize that -34 in River Vale in 1904. I'm about 45 miles east, northeast of Sandyston in Orange County NY, Highland Mills, and I recorded -23 that morning. There were numerous readings below -20 county wide in Orange and NW jersey so it's not far fetched a sheltered valley hit -32. Plus the snow cover was pretty deep area wide at that time.

Not when the snow starts with tempertures in the teens it isn't. You don't want to flirt with any mid level warming in a setup like this.

No one likes a lot of freezing rain. Give me .005to .10 of an inch after a big snowfall, It looks fantastic. Anything more just destructive and no need for it.

I don't think cutoffs here will be nearly as drastic. Right now I'll take my 0.4-0.5 convert that to 7-8 inches of snow and call it a day. I'm 50 miles due north of NYC and still have nightmares about that storm. 30 inches in NYC like you said, I received 12 only because a heavy band rotated over my area for 2-3 hours. 10 miles north of me 6 inches. Watching the heavy stuff on radar for hours failing to advance, It took years of therapy for me to recover.

The January 1996 blizzard dropped 21 inches on JFK airport with 1.1 qpf. This storm would have similar temperature profiles at least, don't know about the other dynamics involved.

I might be wrong, but you strike me as someone who would complain about winning the lottery because of all the taxes you would have to pay on the winnings.

I'm sure it would. The problem is would they bother to measure it?

A lot of family in north Georgia Alpharetta area. As depicted this would be catastrophic. Doubt it reaches these levels but...

For the first time in my life I'm praying for a south trend.

So there's no chance in this setup NYC gets 4-6 inches of snow? It's either nothing or 1-2 feet. Gotcha, makes perfect sense to me.

Where do you live that this winter has been so horrible for you?

Four score and seven threads ago, oh wait that's the Gettysburg address.

Someone shut down the thread, it's our only hope.

It's not starting a thread early that makes it a problem. It's how it's presented. No hysteria here, or exaggerated headlines from a scenario that may have backing from just one or two operational model runs. This is a logical well thought out presentation of what could be next weekend. More emphasis on the cold which seems high probability and less on the snow which at this time is very uncertain.

Jan 2026 Weekend Event.pdfAnd Central Park does it again. You would think that their ratios should usually fall somewhere in between Newaks and LGA since they are located in the middle. This is only two events, so a skeptic might say it's just an aberration. Let me assure the doubters it isn't. This happens much more often than it should and rarely the other way around. It all comes down to being sloppy when or how or how far after an event when they take measurements, or don't at all. This is what happens when you don't have a professional manning the ruler (it's actually a pretty simple device to work with).