NCSNOW

If your a snowgoose like the rest of us on here and  unless you have gravel in your gut. Id avoid looking at the gfs twins over the next several days, 4 times per day. Youll get played like a yo yo. And it dont matter if its a holy grail pattern or crap pattern that plays out, verefies. You still and always have to have luck on your side down here. Id rather be lucky in the winter than have my pick of patterns. Luck you score good pattern doesnt gurantee that.

Day 10. And the big spoke is blocked still. Good shape and should have open window following week, even if we do miss out next weekend peidmont foothills.

Euro north next weekend, miller bs off southern MA coast, looking at 24 hr panels. Probably ice in cad, insitu damming that look.

Classic carolina split. Looks real good for mtns and coastal plain can score. But piedmont, foothills downslope,transfer energy, all the caveats.

3 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Ukie has that piece of energy(1009 low)in Alberta at day 6,same thing the GFS and CMC show diving south/southeast to the gulf later on.

Bout the only thing to watch at the moment.

If it just had something to dive into/hit along gom, wed be in big time business. Old front, any stj energy etc

Oh the ratios. With minus 20 to minus 30 850s.  What i want to see the most. A pure snow storm with atleast 20 to 1 ratios. Just once pure fluff. Been so long and rare. 

GL says hello. No HP in the ne. Should look different tonight. 

55 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Yeah watching the 12z GFS roll out and looks like 6z storm moved north

12z today matches exactly what 0z had last night. 

Heres the FV3 at hour 120: Notice you dont get the separation like the GFS. This is not what we need. Energy gets strung out or consolidated. want work.

Here's how this evoloution come to be on the 6z gfs. It started showing yesterday at H5. This southern energy gets left behind, separated from northern Stream at hour 120 you see this clearly on the 6z gfs. At 12z last night this trend had started , but not quite this much and the cold front didn't have a chance to get pushed through fast enough. Thus the surface low that spawns and rides up the front covered everything in VA in snow down to the state line. This morning Same thing happens, only we get just a little bit more separation as energy pinches off and the front is able to press down through NC enough before our surface low that spins up gets ejected deeper out of GOM and rides up the front.

6z gfs 120:

AT 156: This is when its snowing good in NC, surface reflection is out in front. Notice NS coming down back side. I want open what goodies that could lead to. So the trend we are watching happens around hour 100-120 today on models. Need the energy to seperate on southern end and drop down.

46 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Not the Euro. Not sure about the other ones!

Euro isnt far off though. H5 trend will be interesting today at lunch.

Id keep an eye on mid week. 0zGfs puts down 6 inches northern Rockingham county. Big Frosty scores a couple and 20 minute from his house 15 in fancy gap. Fact ground gets dusted to northeren guilford. 

15 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

NCEP site shows much less support for -NAO/-AO. PNA is near neutral too. MJO went COD and now is back in the unfavorable zones. When is this magical cold pattern going to set up? To me it just looks like cold shots and warmups for the next two weeks. Sure, the CFS shows really cold weeks 2-4, but when do I truly believe the CFS (unless it says warm, then we can trust it).

Jan25. 0z gfs almost laid white carpet down for it. Actually does in all Virginia. Got good seperation on the trailing vort, but the front hangs up, just need a little more nudge and we might score. We have a window , 4 weeks if the weeklies are right starting post jan25. Maybe we dont get 1985 cold. Ill trade it for a couple frozen precip chances. But from jan 25 to March 1st we are polar opposite of that same time last year. From what i read the quick mjo trip through 4,5,6 isnt gonna matter this time like recently. So take that for what its worth.

When we get to March 1st, I hope we come back and re visit these past few pages and couple of weeks of Lucy-Flu we all have been affected by. Well eitheir be saying I told you so or laughing at ourselves for worrying for nothing. If we cant hit one over the fence somewhere in this forum with this look we are evolving into,then we might as well be throwing jax against the wall next November and stepping on wooly worms, while we burn seasonal models and the farmers almanac.

15 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

We had snow in Surry County today. The ground was getting white. It came down fast and furious for a while. 

I’m just telling you this because no models were showing this. No mention of snow on our forecast until it was getting close. 

Just sying storms may come with very little warning  

 

Your spot on about today, even the mtns played catchup after the radar in TN lit up early this morning. This is a prime example, just like the crusher sneaking up on everyone, models have a hard time with spacing and timing Northern stream energy, espeacilly 3 + days out. Once the pattern becomes steady, like block getting situated,then theyll have higher skill most likely. You get a ns dominant pattern like well have more so post jan 25 and mix in active stj, it just scrambles everything more than it already is, making it tougher to calculate and draw the right conclusion. So buyer be ware.

@psuhoffman 

Starting to see the neg ao/nao coming into focus in under 10 days. This is going to cause a lot of swings as we get closer. It's really hard to get the timing right when a -nao starts building. It can be sudden and that's why long lead verification scores are so low as leads lengthen. If things happen faster than currently expected then confidence and accuracy of d7+ will drop just as quickly. Model volatility will be fun because we're probably going to see a lot of fantasy big storms but there will be no consistency with timing and track. I'm forecasting an onslaught of "models suck" in the near future.

#8. 8 Days in a row Greensboro has been below normal. Wasnt for the next 40-48 hours no telling how long this record would stretch, easilly 20+ days. 
Greensboro is also 150%+ above annual climo snowfall. Minus the 2 week torch from last week December and first 9 days of January. This truly has the potential to go down as a stellar top 10 winter if we can score a couple more marginal events.Had a -4 BN November and the potential to cash in a stellar last 6 weeks of winter. Of course there are no gurantees and it could go to the crapper next 6 weeks. But signals are strong things should unfold in a favorable way.

Pouring in Boone. Roads are whitening

12 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Moderate snow here in Marion right now. The weather year that keeps on giving. This snow was not in the forecast. 

Yep and mtn guys getting Heavy snow now

Snow really picking up on webcams sugar mtn,Boone . Enjoy it for the rest of us. Radar looks awesome,should do well

19 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

The silence in here at 12z is deafening. I know its an op run but it looks pretty dry after we rain twice. 

Itll change by late this weekend if not sooner. All you have to do is watch 500 vort maps and see energy flying all over the place and knowing the cold is there.. Also models,espeacilly American, arent gonna sniff out how all this works,phases,feedbacks etc till close in. 

12 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Yes sir. Honestly, in the pattern depicted, I think the next event we get here is a high ratio clipper where we squeeze 3” out of a couple tenths.

Want to know how easy it is to get caught off guard with ns systems being part of equation. Go in mtn thread this afternoon. Boone has advisory now,but models and nws getting ready to  get sideswipped and it aint just gonna be flurries or sprinkle.

3 hours ago, tramadoc said:

As you can tell by my Avatar (Tiger fan since 1978) I have been on cloud nine this whole season. Actually since Lawrence was named starter and he didn’t miss any time after the Syracuse game.

I became a fan of Clemson after the whole Woody Hayes incident.


.

I remember that incident. I was rooting for clemson. Had privelage of meeting Dabo and that staff couple times. They are quality folks. What u see on tv is what you get in person.

46 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

I'm interested to see how this clipper works out this afternoon. NAM is a quick couple inches for the mountains. Certainly looks healthy back west.

 

 

INCOMING.

Man radar is lit up. 30 surface temp boone. If you got 850s ,no doubt a few inches are possible. 

Yall are gonna have clipper galore and nwfs post Jan 25th. NS dominated pattern. But watch out this afternoon. Hopefully it holds together

4 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Alabama? Don't you mean better than Notre Same?

He views Clemson they way I view the Southeast ridge and summer wx. Thus the disdain for Alabama causing him whaling and nashing of teeth living in Tiger town the next 365 days.

4 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Again another late bloomer, this time near the end of the run. Despite losing the storm on the 26th, I actually liked that look better for that time frame. It was very close to getting stream separation and leaving the southern piece behind to potentially slide in under the trough. Regardless though, with our best time frame being beyond the 24th/25th ensembles are the best tool. But I feel better about the end of the month than I did a few days ago. The trough axis slides east more after the 25th with plenty of energy flying around to work with.

Watch canadian. Looked better with that energy but tired of waiting on run to finish. Wasnt holding bsck like gfs it appeared, more consolidated to.