NCSNOW

Notice Dew points over Mack in the teens at this same time frame. lot of virga probably with this pup.

Maybe we can get the mulch white: out to 48 (18z) furtherest it goes.

45 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

That was a nice LR run for the midlands and coastal SC on the GFS. 

I saw a big SC run, think it was yesterday or day before around this time frame on one of the globals. Talk about a place long overdo in the SE, Thats the one. Although I think a few years back stormsfurry and Charleston did score a couple. Anyway Next weekend is powerball, Woof.    Deal where you go big or go home

27 minutes ago, kelani said:

I suppose opinions vary on what constitutes a decent snow event, but it's funny how that works. I'm 20 miles down the road from Boone, and the Triad usually outperforms us every year. In my experience we get one good (>4") event every 2-4 years, yet most years go by without so much as a dusting.

That probably has to do with A) missing all NW flow events and dealing with downsloping in shadow of mtns & B> being to far west at times to get fringed by the coastals . Like the crusher it literally stopped at the Guilford/Forsyth county line. All coastals are different but that's just one example.

FV3

FV3

FV3 has definitely trended more icier and colder at 12z compared to its earlier runs. ICON would be a big ice storm in NC, Just like the Canadian if you look t surface temps,DP ,Precip.

Only goes out to 48, so starting to get in range with nam. Gives us some new tools to start watching for trends:

12z nam has a wetbulb of 26-27 at 18z saturday, Gboro and precip hasnt arrived yet, hour 57.

26 minutes ago, eyewall said:

We get one good one a year maybe. We already had that. It is extremely tough to reel in a second system in NC in any given year outside the mountains.

Happens more than you'd think, especially for foothills, western Piedmont. Also depends on how one defines "A Good One."  If you look back at land falling Hurricanes over the past 100+ years in US. You'll notice each decade is different. You go through cycles where you have several years of multiple hits, then several years of no activity. Winter patterns are the same and no doubt come n go. Its important to realize that we aren't located in the Great lakes. So we aren't getting multiple double digit snowfalls in the same winter. However you can go back to periods like January 2000. Everyone remembers the crusher. But here in the Triad we where under 4 separate winter storm warnings in a 2 week span that winter. One of which was the crusher. That was an abysmal winter pattern that year, save for the last couple of weeks of January. There are others I could site, but its usually multiple events of 2-6 inches of mixed events that happen 3 or 4 times. Not saying its a common theme every other year. My criteria for a good one is a winter Storm warning. That can be defined or reached with 4+ snow or .25+ freezing rain. 

25 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

RAH believes we'll have mostly freezing/frozen here in the triad.  The euro supported that with about .60" falling before 9 am Sunday as a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain.  Honestly, I think we need a decent bump south and a couple of degrees to make warning criteria here in the triad.  Hope it works out.

TW

I'm thinking this is gonna wind up on the dried fruit side of the envelope and qpf isnt gonna be stout enough to get to warning criteria more so than temps. But temps have their issues as well. If its a cold rain, oh well. Was  only hopeful to get a 2-3 inch snow out of this earlier last weekend when the chase started in earnest. Good news is we can root for the colder surface temps and safely see the lmbs only coated in about .25 of ice. That will be safe and not cause any power issues. Also pattern looks like we should be chasing a big dog next weekend. Looks like potential for one to run up the coast which usually invites temp issues, but it can work out for alot of folks as well.

6z Nam total qpf through 84 hours as this Novelity is pulling away:

Cmc amps and keeps primary to strong while all other guidance fizzles it,then it still keeps the primary going after the coastal revs up. You can see thats not supose to happen at h5. 0z runs so far has nam, gfs icon all agree the primary shears out west to east and the runing into the mtns,cad dome and press from the north is gonna chew this thing up. Whats left energy wise will be on life suport by time it transfers or reforms off SC coast. Looking like euro had right idea from earlier this week and lets lead wave dampen out and we get light moisture over cad as passes just to the south of NC and heads off coast ots.

Keep an eye on radar tonight. Might get a quick snow shower northern ciastal plain

The ukmet has a precip max out in Missouri as well then springs back to life as it exits the coast. So both are seeing/keyeing on same thing at H5 to cause the distribution like we see.

It works for me. Amx wx server want let me copy n paste. Has 2-4 mtns east to northern coastal plain. finger of 5 from Gboro over to Halifax County is lollipop. DC gets the whiff.

Go to pivotalwx page if you cant get it to pull up. 

Ukmet Clown. Came south quite a bit.

1 hour ago, NC_WX10 said:

12z Gfs delivers the goods 12+ for a large portion of the central and northern mountains.

Hey what is the start time consensus and how much does Boone get on 12z Icon and Canadian? At work and cant pull up, lot of kidos heading back up the mtn sat and sun as classes start back Monday. Thanks

5 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

How did the December storm verify in regard to precip, does anybody know? I know that thing was modeled juiced up, but I swear I only got about 6 hours of moderate precip.  Started about 2 in the morning and by 8 am it turned to a light sleet.  I doubt I got anywhere close to 2 inches qpf. 

Just to highlight this event as modeled could be even lighter come verification...seems like it usually is each winter storm. 

Oh it was juiced well over 1.0 qpf as advertised. The ratios where like 5 to 1 when we where getting snow, then had a lot of sleet. It qpf, verified stellar.

And yes the NAM did hiccup several cycles on the qpf as we  started working our way in from 84 hrs. But Grit hit the nail on head and everything I've seen suggest .50-1.0 as good consensus for qpf forecast as of right now. That's nothing to sneeze at in the winter. But after the December Snowapocolypse some experienced, we've been shock & awed lol. So its like even if we could squeeze out 3-6 inches of snow this weekend, a lot of posters would be like ok. When in years past we would have over 100 folks on here chasing this event.

3 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Still a little time for this to trend back more favorably; and when I say that I mean getting a big sleet fest over downed power lines. 

No doubt and I'm with you on the sleet. I dont mind freezing rain as long as its.25 or less. Anything over that amount, then sign me up for cold rain. Just dont see a window for this to walk back and be predominately all or mostly snow for I85 immediate corridor from looking at the synoptics and how its currently modeled. It would  take  a pretty significant shift south to get us back in an all snow sounding. 

9 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Lol..I know man. But the GFS did go south at 6Z. I'll have to admit I didn't like the euro run from last night. 

The op was little north of the eps on the euro last night. So we'll see today if it adjust a little south. Anyway you slice it I'm all in that Ice and/or cold rain is going to be the predominant precip type outside the northern mtns in NC. It will depend on location and has the POTENTIAL to be a pretty significant deal in regards to .5+ freezing rain in a sw to ne strip most likely in the i85 corridor from GSP to Durham area. Our little hope of a 3-6 inch event is gonna be a neighborhood or two to our north,

8 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Who are you kidding?  Frosty will get 20" like always.

Lol, hell score most no doubt. But we are dealing with a sfc low track right under us, almost on top , not to mention transfering, miller b. So it will screw up thermals unless we can get a budge south.

Ukie is futher south a notch then am guidance and not as amped. Only is like 1012mb off nc coast heading ots on 24hr panel. Way it appears to me. Gfs new and old are futherest north with slp track, the can, then ukie maybe tick futher south than canadian. 24 hr panels, so grain of salt

My first initial thoughts are for mby. Mulch,roof, car windows get whitened then hours of freezing rain. .50 neighborhood. Pray Im wrong and will fine tune. Up toward Big Frosty maybe get grass blades covered, compact with sleet . 30 freezing rain.  Boone 6+ with sleet and frzng rain minimum end as light snow.

Power companies on standby.