NCSNOW

Yep the 10 day euro and eps from 0Z are solid on SER. So thats why tramadoc you see the warmup by next wednesday. Lets all hope that trends away at 12z today. Otherwise we may be finding ourselves head faked again by this post 20th holy grail lock down pattern. Getting a bad feeling in my stomach SER is gonna throw a monkey wrench in things last of Jan into Feb. Clock starts ticking Friday. Have exactly 6 weeks till March1st and we all know what that means. Plus Friday kicks off sun angle season and all that other jibe that comes along with it.

1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

I’d much rather see that at this lead than a big storm.

This might trend enough to help eastern NC more than western. we'll see, right now it just looks like a NE paste bomb, SE monsoon, followed by Frigid air.

Heres the Canadian 12z @ 144. Getting closer to what we need to get some backside ( secondary LP) on the front coming through.

Heres 12z GFS at 144:  ends up being to late and off coast before we can get the trough to tilt neutral.

44 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

So the next thing for us to look at is late next weekend. The GFS would have a rain changing to snow situation; which we know usually doesn't work out. Looking out in the LR, there's really nothing that pops out except the for availability of cold. But nothing seems to be lined up and we tend to get cold air / warm ups / rain / cold air. The models have been showing this look for the last couple of days, but the way they've shown it has changed with each run. I think we still have a shot of something occurring during the next couple of weeks. As SnowDawg posted above, we could get one of these (modeled) app/lake cutters to get suppressed and we'll be in business.

Here's RAH's write up on this weekend:

There will be a gap in the rain Friday night and through much of Saturday before attention turns to a second low pressure system spurred on by a longwave trough diving down through the central CONUS. Models differ on low track with ECMWF decidedly north of the area and GFS more directly overhead. GFS also remains faster with the onset and exit of the precipitation as well. That being said, rain should begin Saturday night or early Sunday morning and last through Sunday night or early Monday morning. At this time all precipitation is expected to be liquid. Depending on if enough moisture remains after cold air moves in behind the system, there could be a brief period of snow showers or freezing rain but it is much too early to work out those details. Will keep the forecast dry at this time for early Monday morning.

 

You are correct with rain changing to snow history. But this situation is different and isn't a cold chasing Rain. As QC stated yesterday, you have/hoping a wave develops on an artic front. Hopefully we can get the trough to get neutral and deep enough to allow this to occur for our backyard. So its very rare on this side of apps to see cold catch moisture in time, but this scenerio is a little different, plus this isn't a run of the mill front that's gonna be sweeping through.

12z GEFS improves once again.

See if the euro or ukmet can throw us a bone for next weekend. Euro is getting close along with the gefs. I havent checked eps from today. Maybe we can pull a rabit out of the hat.

Two things we know are coming. Plenty of Cold and Plenty of Moisture. What we dont know is how theyll time out.

Big uptick 18z gefs for NC 7 days out

Euro is a nice thump backside mtns no doubt next Sunday as polar air comes gangbusters on backside. We need the trough to go neutral quicker. To posotive leaning. If it would we could see those solutions like last night show up again. The ensembles still look good all next week, the icing on the cake would be to score on the sunday event. There is a way for us to do it. Just have to see if the models work toward it over next couple of days. 

Zr here. Been light till recently heard a couple of ping noises on window but theyve subsided. Can see the ice all over deck

12z today the Canadian had accumulating snow NW NC from Triad back as early as this coming Friday. See if the crazy uncle cooks up another one tonight. First i saw of a Jan 20 storm was on the canadian at hr 240 this past Thursday. 

37 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

Heavy Sleet 30.9

You get your new wx station up? Glad we have some good obs from up there. Wherever the official one is the nws has used forever is awful. Think the themometer was by a stove.

Sub zero temps are so much more enjoyable when the landscape is white.

I remember the coldest of all time mid 80s was in HS. The sounds froze up.

Sleet sw Randol0h cOunty

3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

I think you’re referencing Jan 2005

Sounds about right. Hard to get those east of apps. Having to wait on shallow dense cold air to get up and over.

12 minutes ago, WeatherNC said:

Really really nice LR run of the 12z GFS, 1/19-1/21 is very close to a sig winter storm for the eastern US, not far off from being a long wave axis going neg tilt ivo the MS river.  Then another chance, albeit less impressive at H5 on 1/23, wrapping up with a lobe of the PV in SE Canada with energy entering MT.

Yep big signal  for both. Hopefully we all can score a good week or two of winter.

49 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

We’ve definitely saw that before with similar air masses. Talk about a flash freeze.

Seems like 10 years ago, cant remeber but only time i ever saw it. Takes a mamouth artic front to pull it off. Had mod snow for like 15 minutes behind the front and everything froze solid. Temps plummeted like down into low 20s within the hour.

34/19: 10:00am

Saw lot of flakes walking around inside walmart

13 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Dogs peed and came running back to the door.  Paw pinching, tail biting cold out there tonight.  Winter is definitely on the way!  

Looks like the entire forum is taking the under tonight.

Smart crowd and Im with them. Lets hope this aint the one we go low and it overperforms with the frzng rn.

Good to see guys get a few front end flakes.

The meat potatoes is supose to start at midnight sat night and end 9am Sunday here. If you want to see a flake it will have to be from the finger precip thats waa driven out in front. Clouding up now. Did notice a milky break around 9am for an hour or two tommorow morning on a animated sat loop across upstate western NC/SC line. So if thats true then, that will explain why the cad doesnt get it done there this time when normally it would. Cant pick worse timing fo r the moisture to roll in NE GA/ upstate. Been fun to track, but havent never really felt this one getting to a mid major event,let alone a big dog. So well see if moisture can beat the clock.  Played around on the models with this one long enough. Ready to go hunt one of those big dogss daY 10-15

GOOD NEWS: Today i walked through the yard and didnt sink down thanks to the cold weather past 36 hours. 

6 minutes ago, Lettucesnow said:

Latest RAH discussion states that the GFS has been verifying much better than the NAM in regards to temperatures as the NAM was too cold, and the GFS was closer with the strength of the 700mb cyclone over the southern plains.. Which doesn't really bode well for the NAM's colder forecast here in the Carolinas.. 

If thats the case the 18z gfs has freezing rain further east in NC than the NAM. Gfs is lighter qpf, but also nam is matching better in TN with radar. Snow knocking on door Nashville.

29/18. Oh to have some moisture right now. Radar looks great out to our west, clouds should start rolling in soon. One more big cycle of short range models at 0z and 6z, then its nowcast.

Practice up boys. Cause holy cow at the LR storms coming starting 20th. The ones that follow up look like its snow or nada. 20th looks like ice , rain, ,backside snows. Possibly cold rain. But it ushers in a major pattern change at 5h that truly has holy grail look to it , right in the dead of winter. Great times are right around the corner if you like vodka cold and winter precip.

1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

Yeah, I hit 50 today. Airmass not cold enough for anything but rain down here!

38 here. Havent cracked 40 in 2 days now. Yesterday high was midnight