NCSNOW

2 hours ago, Queencitywx said:

We have the ICON/EURO/GFS all agreeing on arctic front snow at day 7. 

Check out 18z canadian and fv3 for next Tues/Wed. Lot more easier to do than this tightrope phase we where hoping to pull off and still could enc espeacilly. But even there high odds still.

Canadian and fv3 look really good for next Tuesday into wednesday and more on their heels for latter in the week. 7 day mark. See if the models can hang onto this and get inside 5 days. Not depending on a pv lobe for cold. Nice 1040 hp. Pure snow sounding in most of carolinas. Canadian consolidates energy alot better at h5. Cant use the crapfest ole gfs. Does another northern call cutoff . What a pathetic model. 

7 days isnt what anyone wants to hear. But it all, including this weekends wide right miss, fits the bill of what has been advertised. Post jan 25th pattern change to a great look. So it has legs, lets see if it can play it out or throw egg in our face.

16 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

From RAH for tonight's event:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 330 PM Tuesday... Clear skies will give way to developing overcast skies tonight from the S and W, as the cold surface high shifts E off the Mid Atlantic coast. This will induce an increasingly moist low level flow, profound warming at 925-850 mb, and deepening upglide focusing on the southern then western forecast area, as the cold dry surface air gradually moistens with lowering cloud bases overnight. This is a somewhat challenging forecast, as the initial surface wet bulb temps, especially across the Piedmont, will be well below zero. While these readings will be trending upward from SE to NW late, in lockstep with the arrival of spotty precip, these readings are still likely to be near or below freezing over the far NW Piedmont through daybreak. Given the dry air above 700 mb (and above -10C) and subsequent lack of ice in the clouds, precip should be mostly in the form of drizzle or freezing drizzle. As the expectations are for very spotty light precip with the shallow lift, it`s difficult to say with much confidence how much coverage we`ll see. But all it will take is a trace of freezing drizzle to produce enough glazing for travel problems, especially with the recent cold air and observed 4" soil temps already down in the low-mid 30s over the Piedmont. Based on multiple models including convection-allowing models, the far W Triad region will see the greatest chance for an overlap of substantial low level ascent with the still-sub-freezing wet bulbs, so have left the winter weather advisory in place for a chance of light glazing. Models suggest that southern sections will see wet bulbs recovering just above freezing late, reducing the risk of icing there. But I would not be at all surprised to see a light but impactful ice accrual further E and SE outside of the advisory area, even into W portions of the Triangle and down toward Albemarle and Southern Pines, within the battle zone of the encroaching precip and slowly rising temps. Will continue to mention this potential in the hazardous weather outlook, and will monitor the evolution of precip to our S and SE through the evening to determine if an expansion in the advisory will be required. Expect early lows in the mid 20s to around 30, with temps rising overnight. -GIH

Guarantee your house if its out in the country especially toward Rocky Mount Wilson airport will be mid 20's by 9pm. Watch RWI, They are the masters at radiating.

Just now, CentralNC said:

I bet they extend WWA towards you way before the night is over.

Oh there masters at playing catch-up after it starts unfolding. Moisture is building fast off to our west and return flow will set up shop no doubt. But even way off to my east, its gonna be even colder, clouds delayed. so if moisture is in here early enough its gonna be a big mess in the morning commute down I40 toward triangle.

Alrighty we've reached the daytime max. Sitting here 37/3 at 4;30 pm. Clear skies, so in 90 minutes its full on radiational cooling. We see the biggest/fastest drop the first 2-3 ours post sunset. So if we stay pretty clear to 9pm this evening , gonna be easily sitting in the mid 20's pre -clouds, along with single digit DPs. Then its just a race to get in moisture . Have to say this is a recipe for some super icy road conditions in the morning if the drizzle or moisture make it in here by 6 am. Again Raleigh nws has nada. Must have a lot of faith in models. 

After looking over 12z , still not settled and all options on the table. Several days away from getting a real clear picture.  My feelings right now is still a last second phaser and it rides right up the se coast or barely off shore. Well see.

Looks like Ukmet might be  bringing the funk to ENC if temps are right.  Bombs going off Carolina Coast

Today will mark the 10th day out of the last 13 Greensboro has been at or below normal. Big shift since January 9th. With the massive torch first 9 days of Jan, weve cut it down to +3 for january so far. Be pretty impresive if it ends up average or only +1 for month. 

19, dp 1 @ 930 am. See where we end up at 530 and if its clear enough  to radiate back down before clouds roll in tonight. Raleigh nws has nada for my county. If it stays dry before 9 or 10 am wednesday  good call, if not then watch out. Raleigh has a forecasted high of 52 tommorow at Greensboro. If it stays rainy all day, ill be shocked to see greensboro crack 40 mark,let alone 52 with insitu wedge. Taking the under on tommorows 52. 

Ill take my chances with that fv3. 

6 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Late bloomers are so depressing for basically the entire southeast lol. Nothing I hate more than seeing the potential, having the temps and everything, and then the storm just passes by before even getting started.

Speak for yourself. Lot of downeast NC guys and even central NC back to Triad can do well with late bloomers. Fact its prefered for several posters

Thats a foot plus over alot of NC. Id cash out and the pattern can do what it wants rest of way

Fv3 for the win. Nice!

Walk outside look up. Moon eclipse is peaking pretty cool. 

Ots looks like gfs. Or as grit says rots 

Just now, WidreMann said:

We just need a dang high pressure. Apparently, that's a lot to ask for these days.

Maybe we can get caa from that spoke over ne or since its ns system itll produce its own. But yes I trust hp over ne the most no doubt

Snowing miss, central Alabama up into TN at 156

0z gfs is lot diff than 18z h5. Lost the northern cali closed low finally. See what happens . Energy flying everywhere

Counts sleet frzng rn. So its ice,but still gives what Lookout was talking about 2 days ago suport. Just drizzle most likely

9 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

How so, I don't see it...

12k nam. Paints 1-3 ne ga upstate all wnc.

Everyone just got 0z  Nam ed for mid week lol.

Just now, BornAgain13 said:

Image?

Phone/hassel. Posted gefs post storm above a few post back

Gefs snow map is a beaut. Eps is way up since last night as well.