NCSNOW

Seeing alot of stars outside. 

37

Important on the 18z Nam. The 3k only goes out to hr 60. The Nam crawls the LP off the NC Coast and Friday night it snows into Saturday pre dawn across eastern /central NC. Pressure dropping below 1000 into the 990's. So the 3k clowns would be a lot more.

Gonna be lot of sleet, but this is going to end happily on the backside Friday night for a ton of folks that arent expecting it as the storm pulls away. Seeing this sign on a lot of models, agreement. Devil is always in the details as usual though.

9 minutes ago, Snow dog said:

Can you post a map?

10:1

kuchera

1 hour ago, SnowNiner said:

Does that mean grit you don't think it's likely that the northern energy kills the wave, based on the ensembles? That seems to be what's suppressing everything. Hard to fathom we'd lose any storm by suppression. 

On phased storms its always paramount that the ns comes in behind the ss for the phase to go boom. Want work the other way around. You always want the ns to drop right in ss hip pocket as it comes down. If its even a hair in front, its a wash,weak sauce strung out nada.

Ukmet use to be the king at sniffing out phasers.

21 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

What a beauty...

Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk
 

Looks like the icon. This would be prefered track from 84 hr frame,due East,even ne heading at end would be perfect.

3 hours ago, griteater said:

Bump north on the GFS v16 this run

You think we get the 850 low and surface low perfectly stacked right as its heading off the coast? That has to be what keeps showing this deform band signature bouncing around central NC. Those rates for a few hrs will do the trick covering up the ground.

24 minutes ago, griteater said:

Bump south with the wave here on the 12z Euro Ens Mean (trend loop of last 2 runs)

Does it still run west due east like the op? Let us know the exit point off the coast.thanks in advance Grit.

Que the unicorns!

Yall and probably several of us east of the Apps are getting ready to get hammered from the 2cnd week of Jan deep into mid Feb and perhaps beyond,jury is out post Valentines dayish. The Holy Grail of all patterns is being advertised by all models for several runs. Cant draw up better looking blocking,pac Ridge. Right during prime climo to put icing on the cake.  I love this thread as I get to back n forth northern mtns alot these days. Figured Met or Ward would be posting about,seeing this.

We'll post the GFS this morning for next week, since the euro was nixed yesterday morning. This is through 7 days. Northern mtns score Monday some, then wed into thurs most all mtn locations score. Both ops show 2 waves next week. Trick as always is to get the cold in here. Hopefully the blocking showing up with staying power throughout December has legs. Never know which way the AO/Nao will swing. 

55 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

The GFS is not on board with the Euro. The pattern is slowly breaking down for us. You can see the cold air starting to dump into the west more and more. That does not bode well for us in the future. 

GEFS Looks opposite of that to me

48 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

Needs more agreement, I agree. 

0z Ukmet was singing similar tune out to 144. Be interesting watch

14 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

Something definitely is going down To happen in that timeframe. The details will work out. But that’s a great run for some areas.


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Yea looking at the ukmet and other suites at 5H you can see the potential brewing, Devils in the cards how it shakes out over the next 5 to 6 days.

Check out that 12 inch max NW NC off last nights Euro for Mon/Tues

Looks like more fun is headed yalls way this weekend. "yall gonna win so much, you get tired of winning."

0z euro Starts Tuesday, Is futher west (notice Indiana) but gets a lot of this here off wrap around. This is by saturday morning 12/5. Lot to track this weekend.

Heres the Canadian: That was 6z GFS above: Enjoy and dont let it melt. Ill be up there Friday night 12/4 for the Game!

Starts Tuesday: Ends By Thursday

You boys better start licking your chops. Get minor upslope early week, Then a Big Dog Thursday into Friday. 

40 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

I think I posted a 348 hour run of the GFS for that December storm after it was over and it was surprisingly close. However, it lost the storm only to bring it back a week out. I agree with JBurns here, we can't take a fantasy storm serious these days. I don't even get interested until it's 100 hours or less out. By 72 hours it's more believable.... but that's just me.

I was posting those maps showing ops and ensembles suporting a flipback to colder wx and a pattern more conducive to opportunity for frozen. In addition to being sarcsstic and attempting a little  friendly humor with Mack who understandably rips JBs LR forecast. I know as well as anyone a day 9 fantasy storm will be gone in 6hrs on models. 

2 hours ago, jburns said:

I still have problems accepting taking maps 2 weeks out even remotely seriously.  A few years ago you would have been tarred and feathered for even posting a single map that far out.  I also don't buy how much better the models have gotten as a reason. There hasn't been a single storm that I can remember where we knew three days out what was going to happen. Besides, at my age, you don't look too far ahead.  Hell, I don't even buy green bananas.

We live in a land of digital snow now. To borrow a repeated quote from JB and phrase it for my own good.

"Enjoy the computer generated snow, its the only snow you got." 

Who wants to look at maps of 850's +10 abn and chase perfect picnic weather lol. New Age Metorology!

Hot off the press. The 18z FV3 is having a Big Mac Attack. Dumps 11.5 inches on Mac and Shettley Feb 9-10. Big snows all over Carolinas and back into GA. 

16 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

Say it ain’t so!  I read somewhere a couple days ago that JB was going to have a historic bust this winter?!! 

 

He might of been knocked down for a few days early next week, but hell be the one knocking em out when all is said and done. We are only 8 -16 days away before  Macks historic obs start rolling in throughout mid March.

EPS saying JB is a prophet post Feb 8th onward. "Delayed but not Denied. "  "Harshest 30 day stretch of winter Mack has seen in his lifetime" on the way. Remember women and children first!