NCSNOW

6 triad. Northern coastal plain, nash,halifax county etc areas lollipop double digits.

Itll change 20 times between now and next monday. Awesome runs today. Gonna be long week of haves and have nots on op model runs.

Just now, olafminesaw said:

I'm not too enthusiastic, seeing as we really have to thread the needle to make this work. I suppose that's usually the case in the South though.

We eitheir take a shot threading the needle or dont get to play on this one.

Not bad. Ill take it 7 days out. Need a nudge more qpf and temps could use a nice  tweak. Plenty of time. 

Say it Gl_r_

Hr 120 pac ridge is a little closer to west coast and ns energy coming into Dakotas as oppossed to Montana state line. See where she goes.gut says if we get it to dig n phase it will miss se coast by a hair like fv3 just did.

12z Euro Op: hr 96 Ridge is building nice on west coast. See if it can send our energy diving.

Also Gefs looks awesome with lp signal clustering se coast next monday. Lets hope eps does same this afternoon.

Just now, WidreMann said:

The models have vaccilated over that recently. They actually seem to have moved back to keeping the pattern in place. As for the MJO, it's pretty disappointing. The Euro is more aggressive in moving it eastward, so maybe it'll hit 7/8 by February and then we will have a favorable pattern for the month. GFS always sends it into the COD too early.

I read webber say where this mjo through warm phase want have really any effect on our pattern, unlike the last fiasco we just went through and it camped out for 2 weeks. Says they all are different in their effect. Somtimes mjo drives pattern and sometimes its just one of multiple factors that gets skewed, weighted out when amongst all the other teleconnections. 

12z Fv3 continues good look.A little later phase than 0z. Snows light ENC,then scrapes NE coast and does big cities right. Actually looks identical h5 from 12z epic run, just a hair and i mean a hair latter with phase. Shows the tight rope. But also fits alot of traditional tracks from years past that had good size NC snow storms.

3 minutes ago, Wow said:

Yes, for our parts,  this is one where we will need some good phasing to pull it negative.  This is Jan '96 style with a wave diving south from MT all the way to the GOM.

This is gonna be a push all your chips in for us. Go big or go home. Mtns will win off ns by itself and coastal sections can salvage a late phase. In the middle its gotta bomb in the sweet spot or we want have a seat at the table. Im fine and ok with taking our chance like this. Nice when your playing with house money.

Also looks like Lookout eye for wed morning mischief, freezing drizzle, light zr has some legs on the models now. Good catch yesterday.

Im actually sold we are gonna get a sustained negative nao from last few days jan into atleast first half February. After years of whining for one to show up in prime climo, i cant beleive this is gonna most likely come to pass. What will we use for an excuse now lol.

6 minutes ago, griteater said:

UKMet is digging the wave nicely down into the Rio Grande of West Texas at 144...some decent looks with the FV3/ICON/UKMet

Agree, we got a good shot if we can get cyclogensis going in the ne gom and get the trough to neg tilt. Gonna need it to bomb out down there in the sweet spot. If it doesnt phase or phases to late well miss out here in western piedmont. Be an interesting week tracking. Strong consensus for a phaser, with the exception of the old gfs op , screwing up the pac ridge from run to run and being all over the place. Gefs and eps need to continue to trend in our direction today.

All about the ridge out west if it can build tall enough to cause our shortwave to dig and bomb ne gom se coast.  See if ukie has this at h5 today.

To tired to wait for gefs. Only out to 72 pivotal. Time to start counting up and keeping score on eps and gefs for next weekend. 

Canadian has the moisture. We get ice on that run and west 77 hammered. No doubt mid to late next weekend is the opportunity to score.

Check out the block on goofy. Keeps on building and best of all stays cold. Put the seed and pre-emergent away

Just now, griteater said:

It had an h5 improvement though

Oh yea big time. It was so flat looking i figured no way the ns would be able to scream straight down, looked like lower end of a bowling ball across conus. Oh well, glad i was wrong.

What a difference hr138 to 154 with pac ridge. I gave up on it to early. 

3 minutes ago, JoshM said:

0z trying to go Boom, but not there, yet!

Cant beleive we get this result. It looks like garbage h5 before hand on gfs.

So far 0z for the ops. 

Icon and Canadian look very interesting for next weekend, showing potential. Gfs will wet the bed because how sets up or really doesnt pac ridge. Prevents energy from diving down . Needs to sharpen the pac ridge up . Always the outlier. See if fv3, ukie and most important eps and euro keep the theme up. Cold is coming. All. About timing  the vorts now.

42 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

Can you share some of those maps for FV3 a s GFS?

Look at fv3 500vort map above. Neutral, if i could go negative, hello.Sorry its a pain on the phone. Been watching Duke game and just now going back browsing 18z and most importantly eps12z. Eps looks awesome. Watching day 10 now cause we know whats coming day 1-9. So everyday its to see if we continue the stellar h5 look . Can tell you pac ridge is a beaut on the eps. Perfectly located and the blocking coming over top from the atlantic looks good as well. We screw this pattern up and dont cash in, we need to find a new hobby till next winter.

That FV3 dont send a tingle down your leg nothing will. We will have to work hard,very hard to screw up next weekend into early next week. But if theres a way ..... ah,think posotive. Gfs twins got their act bqck together h5 tonight.

If you craving snow and cant wait it out, plan a trip up to the high country next weekend. Want be disappointed  in a 3-6 inch powder event. Take kids tubbing or skiing. And if you need a chaperone,  Mack is available.