NCSNOW

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Heres the 12Z RDPS. Only goes out 48 Hours:

8 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

Interesting from Judah Cohen!!
I feel like the Canadian regional model is a solid model and should be considered seriously more so than their global model.


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I hope the Maple Leaf has it right this time. Barking the loudest . I can tell you the Canadian suite owns the Am suite of models when it comes to CAD. Especially the 2 global s. The GFS is as helpful as a  commode without water in it. 

We can get all the Atlantic Blocking, PV spliting, Daughter Vorticities etc.  BUt we have to have the pna + or we will never benefit from the AO and NAO tanking. Lot of chatter for good reason about the HOLY GRAIL Pattern coming up. But we in the SE have to have the pacific cooperate to maximize things

7 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

What crap model is this from?

FV3

1 minute ago, kvegas-wx said:

Is there also an FV3 ice map to go with that?  Seems like the snowfall map is way overdone for some of the southern areas that will likely be ice.

Check out low position down in south Alabama.

Also seeing this finger band out in front on fv3 still all snow .

23 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Umm, isn't that about 500-600 miles to far north? Nothing but rain for the whole board.

 

Man this current system could be really nice but it's about 300 miles too far north. Got to get the storm track further south for us to get in on the action.

Its a furnace lol. Never checked surface just saw it looping oz run. No doubt a storm is coming next weekend an unless we get suppresion itll probaly climb. Gonna be to wound up. We need one of those daughter vorticities up over buffalo.

0z Canadian freezing Rain map is a lights out. .66 Charlotte. .89 Asheboro .89 all the way to state line through and above Durham.

Canadian Runs over now. Triad down 85 to Rowan county and west stays frozen whole time. Lot of ice on Canadian. Start with quick thump all NC west of 77 and everyone north of 64 till you get to coastal plain. Then ice sets in fast and holds whole time up and down 85 and points west.

When I say quick thump , im talking less than 3 hours panels. So it may not last 30 minutes at onset,then to sleet,then freezing rain . So use grain of salt

Im at hr 42 on Can . Stuck ,snow has just started breaking out wnc all of 77 west. Waiting on next frame

2 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

Wow, the GFS is really, really dry.

GFS is in and out in the blink of an eye. Arrives 6 hrs latter with precip and its over in 6 hours after starting. Very progressive

1 minute ago, Queencitywx said:

RGEM is easily the snowiest model for the front end of this. 

Yes it is. We might get the mulch and roofs whitened up after all if we can get this front end little thump.

Allright Im off kids laptop back to phone. Someone take over the maps.

This is hour 48, as far as This Canadian Short Range model goes out.  

2 minutes ago, tramadoc said:

That 540 line is through the Northern Neck of Virginia.


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You mean 534 line. 540 is central/south VA

OZ Nam Jackpots Frosty 6 inches. DC doesnt even get 1 inch. They end up 9/10ths an inch of snow. 

Edit:  This is the bone dry 3k nam, Regular Nam has 4-8 across all Triad

You have to wonder with that first batch that comes through hr 45 to 51 if or how much evaporates with low dp. But its supose to take that into account.

Weak sauce qpf so far  compared to other models. But it does increase each cycle. See if 6 z steps it up in the morning.

Hour 45 snow from northern mtns to Elizabeth City. Hour 48 snow line is from Ashe County to VA /NC state line above Elizabeth City. HOUR 51 Ice breaking out southern foothills.

Hour 42 Nam 0z  has snow all Triad

Cant post map on phone. Off PIvotal