NCSNOW

Has anyone seen the UKIE from overnight? Its usually good at dissecting phased storms. IF its not seeing a phaser like the gfs is showing, then It definitely lends more credence to the euro .

GLL ruins this run.  Hiccup hopefully . Way to early to tell. Noticing more an more qpf every run. Not least bit suprised there and betting the streak, id say .5 -1.0  qpf is easilly doable. Just need our HP positioned right and no GLL.

12 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

This will be a good test for it. Right now (18z) it shows an apps runner while the 12z Euro shows a miller A. Will the Euro cave?

Nope. Its all about  the position of the HP up  to our NE. How the timing shakes out effects the press of the flow, and in turn will determine the ns vort, potential for phase etc. Models should get a good handle on 5h here in a cycle or two. Right now euro has more modeling in its corner than fv3. But lets see what euro and eps does at 0z tonight and 12z tommorow.  Watch the position and timing of the HP . Biggest factor to getting frozen verse unfrozen.

I stuck the keys in the ignition and fired the bus up early this morning. Enjoy the ride and heres to crossing that 20 inch seasonal mark for everyone below 1200 feet. 

12 hours ago, CaryWx said:

Yes, may not be snow sign yet but I can open the fireplace again after mid month I think

We dont fire up the bus for cold, even if its vodka cold. Only winter precip. GFS says to put the key in the ignition. Ill wait a couple more days. Seen to many head fakes.

Late next weekend into Monday is really starting to look interesting. Been watching since Grit post yesterday on Euro 12z. Now fv3 and gfs starting to send smoke signals. Im not ready to fire up the bus but i got the keys in my hand. 

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I dont think many would call the winter epic even with a feb 2010 redux. Greatest comeback would be a good term but epic winter is off the table in my gradebook

To each his own. Still has a legit shot down here. Need to sink these last free throws for the win. Still time.

3 hours ago, oconeexman said:

Itll take an absolute perfectly timed event to score right meow. Hope and pray a flip is coming around day 15.

Its got suport same time frame fv3. Nice trends this afternoon

So around Jan 10th, 11th the coronal hole is going to stall the MJO again? Is that the thinking/consensus? If so is the stall what causes the MJO to go inside COD? or is it other factors that cause MJO to go in COD? Enjoy reading ya'lls thoughts on this, easy to understand layman's terms . Weber knows this stuff upside down, but I'm afraid to ask him. His answers require higher intelligence than yours truly possess for discernment.

Whats happening now is a prime example of why the Pacific is so much more important to have on your side verses the Atlantic (-Nao, etc) . Its what matters the most as far as effects on the SE winter weather pattern. You screw up the Pac pattern and your gonna toast. We are literally gonna be punting December 26-January 15 at a minimum from the looks of things now and that very well could extend on into the Jan 20-30 time frame. February and early March still could set up in stellar fashion or continue with the putrid garbage we are experiencing now. So the jury is still out on the last 1/3 of winter. Playing with house money this season, but I hate forfeiting the Prime climo dead of winter. We never see the Dog days ( Mid July- Mid August) at -15--20 BN lol! However getting +15-+20 is a piece of cake during the dead of winter.

The pacific is like a Pressure washer of hot steam. To much warm soup whipped up and its driving/forcing the NH pattern currently. Until something negates that, we aint gonna see a change to our sensible wx downstream.

Record warm fall? Wasnt November. Raleigh and Greensboro ended up -4 for Nov.. Actually Dec was fine till last 5 to 9 days

Nothing like having 2 days off and using the mikd weather in your favir to pkay some Golf. Only problem is it rains 24/7 now a days. Yard is like mush.

1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

It's possible. The models have been terrible lately.

Not sure if we should still put equal weight towards the GFS, and put more towards the FV3-GFS.  

The royal battle right now is between the eps and gefs handling, forecasting the mjo. Webber has pointed out how historically horrendous the eps is with forecasting mjo. Lets hope thats the case today cause gefs sends it phase 7 and 8 which is cold and eps sends it cod warm phase back to 4. Its been grinding or stuck in 5 or 6 past 12 days, hence why weve had warm weather. We have everything on our side but the mjo. Its the wrecking ball to our perfectly lined up pattern. We get to phase 7 and 8 then we will all be in business real fast. The soi has tanked to negative territory so thats a great sign. Trend is our friend, hopefully eps plays catch up in a day or two and gets a clue. Lets hope its off its rocker again with the mjo

Seeing some cracks in the torchfest wall. Ive said to hang tight till Jan 1st and the models want be so depressing anymore. Sticking to my guns and well see come Tuesday. Cant look anyworsebthanbthese past few days lol, so can only go up. Think our friend the NAO may come around to save the day. Biggest thing that needs to happen is get the MJO in to phase 7 and prefearbly 8. Just get it moving out ofbthe dumpster fire phases. Lets see ifbthese cracks, keep trending next few runs. 

29 minutes ago, The Alchemist said:

I don’t know man, a 46 day euro clown map... just seems to be clutching at straws to me...


.

You could try the 0z fv3 or new GFS I should say for next week. 

1 hour ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

Just a thought but since the polar vortex spilt do you think the models are having a hard time trying to figure out what’s going to happen?

I know the NAO ,AO andthe PNA are going  favorable for the SE. 

Yes, ssw in early stages, plus just because youget a pv split doesnt gurantee anything, its where those lobes set up shop after the split. Does the ssw effect the mjo and drive it into phase 7 and espeacilly 8 or is whats happening up top of the globe an effect of the mjo? Lot to learn about what triggers the causes and effects of the pattern drivers.

25 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Yeah, it’ll be clear by January 1st, this winter will suck like the last 5 or so. Unicorn SSW and perfect looking long range patterns, are going by the wayside. Somebody start the 2019 hurricane thread! Put this craptastic to bed

Lol. You, we got a shot late next week to score some novelty event stuff. Not a long shot and not a slamdunk eitheir. Hope is fv3  is 1 for 1 on sniffing out an event from 7 days out this winter. Maybe 12z it goes 2 for 2. Red flag is  confluence over NE isnt what we normally like to see. But its all we got to look at right now till the mjo gets out of 6.

Give the models a few days and Im willing to bet by Jan 1st the LR picture want be as foggy and well be able to nail down the next window of opportunity. The firehose of moisture isnt going to shut off and its just a matter of getting a trough on the east coast to hang out 3 to 5 days and well time out another amped up synoptic event. Once the models see the ssw propogate down and the MJO finally decides to get into phase 7 it should be game on.  In laymens terms we just need the pac ridge to blow up and drive canadian air down into a east coast trough. These big wets come along every 5 days, thats how theyve been spacing out. Whats impressive is their duration. Just like the early December big dog, this next flood event is gonna get going this afternoon, hit us hard Friday and leave hangover moisture for several day afterwards.

1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

Too much variability in model runs , because of the major pattern changes. People can’t get excited about 1 run that shows snow, and 6 hours later it shows 60s! And we are holding our breath hoping the unicorn SSW will help us have a blockbuster winter

Not that im an expert. But if youll do like Im doing and start learning H5 and look at the pattern forecast and evoloution, youll see with confidence that table is setting up nicely to get the cold back in here. Been seasonal, but SE you always need a nudge BN. Cold is coming. As JB says use metorology not modelology. That pac ridge coming is gonna be a beaut and just what we need to send the canadian air down this way, espeacilly up at the 850 level. The unicorn want be ssw but keeping the stj going like it has and supply the moisture,time up right. The pv split is already happeneing and  the dominoes are begining to fall in place. Be of good cheer for the new snow white year thats coming.

Hope everyone is getting ready, cause the cold is coming gangbusters after we ring in 2019.  Watch the epo and pna. Most important tc for the SE in winter

38 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Quick note:

During the last rainstorm, Greensboro's total precipitation for 2018 reached 62.41". That made 2018 the wettest year on record for Greensboro.

Gonna add to it Thursday. Appreciate you tracking this,  nice follow. GREENSBORO has also had roughly 20 inches of snow for the calendar year. Last Jan was about 8 inches and 12 this December.

Cold is coming 1st week of 2019, no denying.  Should be alot of fun n games Jan,Feb,March on @off. Enjoy and Everyone have a Merry Christmas!

Snowing pretty good up at at sugar base. White christmas. Looks like some slop flakes mixing in at boone as well.

Temps so far this young Season:

Greensboro: November ( -4.2)   December: Up till 19th ( -1.6)

Raleigh: November ( -3.3)   December: Up till 19th ( -1.1)

8 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said:

If this comes to fruition, this would remind me a lot of the 81/82 winter.  We had a southern winter storm before Christmas, a relaxation of cold for a couple of weeks, and then an absolutely brutal period of cold in January that was kicked off by a 2 day east coast winter storm that dropped 8" IMBY (upsate SC).  Couple of things I remember from that cold spell was the Cincinnati and San Diego ice bowl play off game and the air Florida crash in the Potomac.   

Yea Its all house money going forward. Give a double digit storm followed by some vodka cold, Then another SECHS for late Jan into Feb. 

I want to cross the 20 inch mark this year for seasonal total at a minimum.