NCSNOW

Nam at end of run has dps in teens across GA/SC state line. 

Thing is you know surface temps are gonna trend colder as we get closer. Globals never catch the cad,  forecast it correctly. I doubt very seriously triad and alot of areas ever get to 32 during precip. Should be getting a peek by this time tommorow with nam.

5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

How does the 18z EPS look? Does anyone on here have access to it?

In mtn thread it went way up for Asheville. Need to check

18 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

So if the storm ends up more north as depicted on the GFS and even the euro(from today's run), I think the question is; do we develop more CAD and consequently more southward expansion of ice. It will be interesting to see the next model runs...Tomorrow we'll start getting into the NAM range. Historically it has done well with CAD setups, but I'm not sure if it's dependable right now.  

I was looking forward to a few inches and excepting some mix keeping a lid on it at that. Then getting ready for more opportunities coming up as soon as this exit stage right.

But today Im getting an uneasy vibe an warry of a potential significant freezing rain event. .5-.75+ frezing rain is on the table now.

9 minutes ago, Thor said:

High keeps retreating, driving the warm up. 

Dont focus on the letter H. Look at the 1st semicircle thats closed off. It expands contracts,that letter moves around,but the center point is almost in same location. 

Amazing folks still let the YoYo model play them like it does. After all these years.

3 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

18z GFS looks like a western foothills to NW Piedmont ice storm. Good snows from extreme NW NC up into VA to the MA. 

Did it Miller A or B? If B, where was transfer, primary track before transfer if occured.

Over.80 qpf most of NC west of US 1. Goes up to and above 1.0 for central VA. Big jump up in qpf from oz euro. Big trend is all guidance is more amped up( qpf) which shouldn't surprise no one.

3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Looks like mostly sleet and freezing rain for the major population areas in N.C. this run. 

Yep very canadian like. Big alarm just went off to be wary of a high impact Ice Storm. I aint just talking a winter storm warning, Talking lights out for several days deal.

Yes: Futher south lp and better hp placement. Improved with position of big players

Just now, BornAgain13 said:

Maps??

Gefs is ramped up qpf as well. seeing alot of 1.0-1.25: No suprise

UKIE is nice: 6 most of triad and I40 east past Raleigh

Interested to see how the STJ upcoming split flow times out these southern sliding pieces of energy. Now that we have a pattern to work in that's conducive to being cold enough for frozen. These HP sliding across and not being interfered with by GL on top of the fire hose that want shut off underneath us, tells me we are fixing to get a belly full of winter threats. I'm betting by mid-late next week will be in another storm thread , Jan 17-19.

Notice qpf spike futher east with latter development.  Have to watch this transition line and timing of the mix if it involves freezing rain. Nothing like 2-4 inches of snow and .50+ freezing rain on top. 

QUE The Brick to start us up a thread. He usually has the mojo. Tell you what this will be the second thread a needle timing event this winter with the Cad HP sliding into perfect position right as we have a southern wave sliding west to east underneath us. Tis our season so far, knock on wood!

How bout the Nam. Is it runing poorly and no govt worker around to fix it as well? Or is runing normal and we can rely on it like we normally do, the caveat having to adjust to all its known biases, faults etc.  Hate to be looking at it Friday and no warm nose showing up, thinking our column is all snow sounding,then waking up saturday to pinging noise.

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Happy for the South but some of us in the northeast are starving lol

Enjoy if this ends up being squashed =)

Its 2009/2010 reversed. Yall couldnt find ways not to jackpot.

55 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Worried about stale cold, slightly!? If this cold front comes through Wed, an the storm came later Saturday, then might be hard to hold on to cold that long?

I fully understand where your coming from. This will be different than one of our normal worries you alluded to. We will have NE flow the whole time at the surface. For mby Id say my biggest concern is to end up getting northern fringed due to suppression, which would be good news for you upstate folks. Still think from your area back into NE GA will score  frozen. Precip should start before sunrise Sat for yall if my timing is right reading models. Dont hold me to it, but thats another posotive.

Nice little thump on 0z euro.2-4  i40 Nc From mtns to Raleigh area. Continues to not wind up the low, sheared energy.

Ukie stays south and weaker than american guidance.

I have no idea what that mess was at halftime. Thought models where hard to understand. Time has passed me by. Clemson looking good. Gone be flakes flying at the ticker tate parade. Take pics Mack.

1 hour ago, kvegas-wx said:

You guys lettin' me down!  Someone promised me 72° and sunny until June the other day.  Until I see the FV3 starts honking ice I'm not on board for the NW piedmont and triad.  The low level cold already in place by end of week is certainly enough reason to be concerned, but there is little reinforcement for it.  No snow pack really anywhere to the north and no new cold shot during the LP passage.  Am I missing something?  Otherwise that CAD signal should erode quickly, right?

This cad isnt gonna erode quick enough and will be locked in. Yes freezing rain is self limiting process as far as sustaining 2m temps below 32, But If you do get freezing rain starting off with temps in the mid to upper 20's, by the time you freeze, get enough latent heat to release because of the process the storm (qpf) is outta here.  Anyway

Two things I'm siding with is the euro/Ukie idea of weak Miller A and more qpf than what they are advertising with that scenario. Certainly you can get a phase or quicker phase and that changes up sensible weather as far as precip types and amount of qpf. But we are inside 120 mark now and to discount consistent euro/ukie at h5 with other modeling trending toward it isn't the smartest move.

Easily 2 million with lights out if that Canadian verified. You get 1.0 plus freezing Rain and temps in 20's, It will knock power out to 100% of grid. Exactly what happened in Dec 2002. That map is over high populated areas , Charlotte,Triad, Richmond. Ugh, worst case scenario. Anyway lets do another storm with 1.0+ all snow, like those better.

22 minutes ago, msuwx said:

UKMet valid 0z Sunday. 

Thanks for posting. Just as I suspected. Thats a good spot for the HP as well, unlike the american suite which has the axis way up in Canada and the primary L in eastern KY/TN.