NCSNOW

The RDPS (which is the Short Range Canadian model and pretty good only goes out to 48. The pic above is the GDPS or Long Range Canadian Global. I wanted to post the Short range RDPS but Pivotal has the area we need to see botched out o figure. However I can make enough of it to see it looks probably as sexy as the 18z nam if not more. 

If this rabbit chase doesn't pan out. Good news is we have at least 2 more on its tale coming up mid week and next weekend.

Here was the Canadian at the same time today. Notice the isobars are a litllet flatter out in front coming across NC. Want them the sharpen up more SW to NE. The storm is wound up more/phased energy on the 18z Nam is whats causing this. If it can hook up phase eitheir quicker, futher north or stronger, then the trough orientation will change. 

NS captures SS on 18z Nam. Just wish SS would be a little further north coming of Texas coast. It digs to deep from AZ till GOM before it gets captured. Oh this is so so close.

1 hour ago, SouthCentralWakeCo said:

 

 Today is the day the rubber meets the road model world. NS has made the jumps we needed and now we need a favorable tweak from the southern piece of energy and several folks will be in big time business. Everything is coming into to better RAOB sampling areas today. 

5 hours ago, Queencitywx said:

The first of the three snows in a week if I remember right. 

It was the greatest 10-14 day stretch of winter wx in my living history. Had 4  seperate events. 3 where Winter Storm warnings ( one being the crusher)

10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I never bought the disaster that was showing up a few days ago. All the ensembles showed the same tpv drop and drift into eastern Canada + the -nao. I've never seen that type of progression just evaporate and flip to warm in the east. It didn't make sense. All we can do now is keep fingers crossed and hope incremental  improvements continue. My gut instincts are telling me we're in good shape. 

You follow your gut and stay away from JI and youll be alright.

29 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Ok Snow.   Let see what happens.  I'm in your corner but not sure given the models wild output  

Heres how I see our odds. They play powerball in 50 states. But this storm is like the powerball and the only 2 states who can buy the winning ticket are NC,SC, heck Ill throw SeVA in there as well as some carnival cruise ship passengers on a boat 100 miles off the coast. But someone has the winning number and guranteed winner. So lets hope its someone in sc,nc,seva. And then lets hope when they scratch it off its frozen precip and not cold rain for the prize.

Next week has potential mid week and following weekend.

But to be very clear, im referencing the potential storm for this coming weekend. You guys watch h5 and youll see we are on the half inch line, not 1yard line and about to cross the plane of the goalline for a Touchdown. Its amazing how big a difference downstream at the surface it will make if one of two or both pieces of energy can just get the slightest nudge here or there. These nudges are 50 to 100 miles and 48 to 60 hours from this pivotal intersection with each other. This has some pretty significant implications for not just ENC, upper SC coast, but a lot of central and possibly western NC, Upstate. Tonight at 0z we need to see the trend continue and not head back to more seperation. This is a swing at the fence type deal. Its eitheir gonna be a homerun or a whiff, no middle ground. I can tell you if we miss it'll be by the smallest of margins the way models are showing it right now. 

Hope you guys realize just how close this weekend event is to doing more than possibly kissing the coastline. So so close at h5. Even though surface looks like we are 200 miles from moisture. The 2 pieces of energy we need to phase and caues a boom, are within a nose hair of making this happen. If only the southern one would just come off texas coast into Gom halfway between brownsville and houston, or heaven forbid houston area someone will get thumped. Right now its been brownsville. Northern stream is about to trend back sharp enough and come in behind ss energy. May just be a long fly ball at the warning track, but still has time to clear the left field fence.

32 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

For all the Athens to CLT folks (the newer guys anyway) this graphic is a perfect depiction of what happens when our precip has to come over the mountains. Imagine drawing a line from Raleigh to Macon- all things being equal, you would expect that snow line to be pretty consistent. Instead you have a 200 x 100 mile area with absolutely nothing (and especially the western upstate bubble ) due to the drying effects of down slopping winds off the mtns. Unless the cold is in place before the precipitation, this is how it will go down. It's easy to understand the frustration for people in the Athens to GSP to CLT line (and to a lesser extent the Midlands) who see this over and over again. 

There are 19, yes 19 peaks in the Great Smoky mtns over 6,000 feet. Look where that is and its easy to see why especially Mack and Lookout suffer so much. Bad enough where we are downwind of SW VA and WVA on W/ NW flow.

Thanks NC_hailstorm. Your last call/timing verified right on the money.

Yea its ratios. Rare we see it working in the favorable direction from 10:1 base. Id be ecstatic with a 2-3 inch fluffer followed by several days of temps ruining 10 or more BN. 

58 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Kuchera maps for the 6z GFS had 4-5" in the triangle. 

HOLA! EPS is frigid next Thursday. That 1/4 inch snowpack must be doing it lol.

FV3 at 6z:

last night fv3. Falls says its down at 6z so I;ll try to post when its out or finished.

Here was the canadian last night. Again difference is whether the anafrontal can be enhanced by catching the very weak wave out in front and it rides up the front, enhancing moisture. GFS doesnt have this. last night fv3 and Icon did. Euro was very bland just a front passage, lowest qpf.

Gfs is only one of 4 0z models without little wave to amp on front as it comes through. We need thst little wave or energy east of apps

0z Fv3 is better for you orangburgwx. Solid 2 to 3 inches columbia up to GSO and all points east. So all globals look encouraging for day 4 to day 5 event. Under 5 days finally for a little event. Should have good ratios but its a quick hitter. 3 to 5 hr event then serious cold to follow

7 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

What about SC?

Light accums, gfs misses and is inch less here because its just cold front an east of apps we all know how that works. Icon is to warm for you this run. You want to root for canadian solution. Amps a wave out in front. Gfs doesnt have this energy in front to amp.

0z Icon,gfs and canadian bring snow tues into wed. Canadian is best 3 to 4 triad to coastal plain. All models light. Icon and gem have low ride up front and helps enc

55 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

PTI is the airport but GSO is the ICAO identifier. 

Piedmont Triad International Airport; Thanks QC. Tramadoc rain held off just long enough and was light enough to not cause any issues. Fact the pavement is still dry at noon time go figure. This sub freezing pattern, warm up to mid 30s rain, then back to sub freezing is wearing on my patience. 

Rain just started here at PTI: See if its steady enough to wb down.  wetbulb is 28,7

 Nam shoves energy futher east on h5 for begining of weekend storm. Interested to see this thing by friday as its getting sampled. Feel like we havnt heard the last from it.

1 minute ago, WeathermanTy said:

Can someone anyone post the 18z CMC for nxt Tue and Wed? I want to compare the 12z and 18z. 

Its 12z canadian and 18z fv3. 12z canadian is a beaut at h5. My typo mistake