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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    It's kind of a saying up in here. You must be new.
  2. CAPE
    Looks like the same idea previous GFS runs had.
  3. CAPE
    The 0z runs will be telling!!
  4. CAPE
    We can always get a simple trailing wave type deal. As for the extreme cold- when we get a pattern such as is being advertised, there is always a risk we could get an unusual cold air outbreak, and operational runs may depict that from time to time at range, but in reality it occurs infrequently at our latitude in the lowlands. Now if we get decent snow cover with a cold airmass in place in the days that follow, low temps of zero or below can more easily be realized outside of urban areas.
  5. CAPE
    Well yeah but this is a winter with a weaker/retracted STJ, with most of the action in the Polar Jet, and combined with a -WPO/EPO, a -AO/NAO and a TPV lobe squeezed in between, that equals chaos. Yes, it is that complicated.
  6. CAPE
  7. CAPE
    Such a delicate balance for us to get snow. In this case the NS vorticity digging south overtop on the GFS is such that the divergence from that develops another surface low to the north, which places the best lift further north. That's mostly why we end up with lighter precip. Euro is completely different up top, so I'm not worried too much about it being a tad slower or the cold not staying in place as the moisture comes in- not with that advertised NA look. Just need the Euro stay the course, and be right!!
  8. CAPE
    Yeah we love complex, don't we lol. I kinda like where the Euro is now, with a quieter NS. At this point NS interaction seems more likely to be destructive than constructive(see the GFS) I think 3-6, 4-8 is probably the best case outcome, and everyone should be happy with that.
  9. CAPE
    I like it. Bit slower, souther, more HP above and out ahead.
  10. CAPE
    Better
  11. CAPE
    Man the advertised pattern is radical, with the -EPO/WPO and the NAO block doing the squeeze play on the TPV. NS vortices flying around, vortex stretching.. we probably gonna have to do complicated to get our snow lol.
  12. CAPE
    we hope
  13. CAPE
    Some improvement over 12z, but still too much NS energy trying to get involved compared to the Euro, which is quiet up top by comparison.
  14. CAPE
    Fuck I hate WB lol
  15. CAPE
    Some early signs of a more Euro like outcome.
  16. CAPE
    Some of that blue to to south might be rain/mix. Up where you are, colder, better ratios. I wouldn't kick 0.43" out of the bed.
  17. CAPE
    Huge difference at h5 up north compared to the GFS.
  18. CAPE
    I have been keeping an eye on it too. GFS and CMC both have a coating, mostly for southern parts of the region.
  19. CAPE
    You sure?
  20. CAPE
    I actually posted it in 2 pictures above.
  21. CAPE
    It's not weak sauce up north. You run a weather facebook page. You should know why.
  22. CAPE
    Look to the north..
  23. CAPE
    At that point the big difference is the amplification and amount of energy associated with the TPV that the GFS is involving. Previous runs didn't do it so might be a one-run error.
  24. CAPE
    Something to monitor for Tues-Wed next week is the GFS brings a trailing shortwave eastward and pops a coastal low off NC. The last few runs have done this and it is also reflected on the GEFS. The Euro wants to dig most of that energy into the SW.
  25. CAPE
    The 6z GFS dropped the TPV hammer in behind the storm. Too much amplification. Not surprising that the GEFS reflects that, with the 'follow the leader' tendency the model has.
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