CAPE

That's the difference on the latest runs for western areas- the low associated with the weak clipper stays more intact. For eastern areas the inverted trough thing never works out at our latitude, and if some light precip does manage to fall temps are warmish, so probably light rain or maybe a snow tv mix.

That would be a pretty good NA look by traditional standards/ if we looked at it in isolation. Specifically in this case what that panel represents is a step in the transition from the prior Pac puke onslaught with a torched Canada to the pattern being advertised a few days later on the latest EPS weeklies. That is the same look depicted on Jan 1 of the weeklies, and it ends up like this by the 6th-

It is Nino-ish to a degree. Not sure about STJ contribution, but if this look verifies we have a mechanism between the EPO ridge and the stretched TPV for Polar air to chill Canada pretty quickly with cold moving southeastward from there. Maybe after this pattern reset and being further into winter we get better luck with NS wave timing. A little -NAO action certainly would help to slow the flow a bit and hold the cold in instead of exiting stage right as a storm approaches. AO/NAO looks neutral here.

The latest extended products have normal temps back in the east within the first few days of Jan, then colder from there through mid month. Pattern might go more 'classic Nina' by the end of the month, but the -EPO looks to persist into early Feb which should keep the SER on the flat side.

Yeah all the ensembles depict the same general pattern evolution. Canadian is quickest in getting some colder air eastward.

The shortwave energy is sharper and goes more neutral over the last few runs of the GFS. The surface reflection from the weak clipper is also a bit stronger so maybe between it and the developing offshore low we get a bit of moisture transport.

The extended products have been pretty persistent with the idea of a cold period in January. We shall see if we get lucky with coincidence of antecedent cold and a well timed wave.

Good question. Don't expect a logical answer.

That's a 10 mb temp anomaly panel. Not very relevant to sensible weather.

12z CMC ens gets the longwave pattern back to a solid look by Jan 1. Temps are even a bit below normal. Probably a little too soon, but majority of guidance is moving towards this in the LR.

0.62" total

Just looked. Somewhat interesting.

The beginning of the advertised pattern change on the extended products is evident at the very end of the latest ens runs. The NPJ is forecast to be (too) extended for the last week of the month, but around NYE there is some retraction that relocates the exit region, so the GoA trough retrogrades while a downstream h5 ridge starts to redevelop. The jet configuration has been shifting, so its hard to say how stable this will be. In general a retracted jet is favored in a Nina, but with the weak nature of it(and tropical forcing) who knows. When it retracts too far westward the characteristic Nina NPAC ridge develops.

Moderate to occasionally heavy rain showers moving through this morning. 0.33 so far

The last few runs of the Euro weeklies are depicting an increasingly colder look for early to mid January. GFSX and CMC weeklies are advertising the same general h5 look for the first half of Jan. All 3 are hinting at +heights building into the NAO space.

I must have missed it.

MVP is a regular season award. His playoff record is not great at this point, but it is a team game. Lamar threw a perfect pass to Flowers who fumbled the ball going into the end zone early in the 4th quarter of the AFC championship game. If he scores there the Ravens have all the momentum and the crowd is going crazy, but instead it was deflating. There is no excuse for purposely designing a game plan where the RBs have 6 total rushes, against a defense that was mediocre against the run(and great defending the pass.) The Ravens were the top rushing team in the league. McNabb..no lol. Come on now. Good QB. Not comparable to Lamar.

Allen is great. He could win it. The Ravens did blowout the Bills 35-10 the 4th game of this season though and Allen was awful, but that probably doesnt mean much at this point. If the Ravens keep averaging -100 yds in penalties they will be a quick out in the playoffs.

STUD

Yeah 2 great late games.

They are dominating so far. Largely escaped the 2 turnovers.

He is awful.

Ralph wtf? Why is your team being so generous here?