CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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Yeah I mentioned this in the banter thread after the 18z GFS run yesterday. Had a nice band all the way to the coast. Just missed my yard by a few miles verbatim. Maybe the Mesos will pin down the exact location over the next several runs- or take it away lol.
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Despite all the imperfectness, somehow things align in a way to produce snow a few times almost every winter.
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We don't always do winter around here, but when we do, it is usually backloaded. Even DT was predicting the back end of winter to be colder/snowy for the MA, before he started hyping the upcoming pattern as the best since 1996.
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We have an evolving pattern. A little patience is probably a good thing.
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Yeah we don't need to wait for blocking to break down and hope we get an HECS. Enough with the Archambault crap. Just give me a pattern that increases the chances for a storm to track to our south and produce some snow. A sustained -NAO does that. Light snow, moderate snow- all good.
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Hopefully this doesn't become a can kicking exercise in the LR. This is where we want the block, and we hope for some Pacific cooperation. This is a good look right here. EPS has an impressive west based -NAO as well, but maybe a bit less favorable look out west.
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Yeah its going to take some patience, Both the EPS and GEFS build the +heights more NW towards the Davis strait by the first week of Jan. Until then its going to be a struggle to get something to track underneath with a lot of energy dropping down so far west, and the NA ridge in the near term displaced too far east.
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Have the last several pages been negative? Hadn't noticed that. And that looks pretty shit for here.
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Don't panic Ji!!
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This is really nothing new going with the trends on the means.
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This is an h5 look that will get it done for a moderate snowstorm.
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@Ji Not a cutter.
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HH trying to do something with a southern wave and cold pressing.
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The Steelers getting their derailed train quickly back on track can help the Ravens cause immensely. I might throw up in my mouth a little, but I will be rooting for them hard the last 2 weeks. A win against the Colts or Browns, assuming the Ravens take care of their business, would put them in the playoffs. Alternatively, the Raiders beat Miami this week, or Buffalo doesn't rest all their key players the final week against the Dolphins and they win, would get them in.
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Transient.
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He would be praying for the GFS to show the mother of all cutters by early Feb.
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Da fucck is going on here. A few miles to my south gets a flizzard and still not a flake imy!
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Must be the solar min.
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Look where the NA ridge is located. Cant have a high and a low in the same place. Ideally we want the +heights focused further NW. There are hints of that towards the end of the ens runs.
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Troughs dumping too far west and shortwaves amplifying too soon/west is a tendency during Ninas correct? I think this is what we are going to be battling as we try to time up a storm with a favorable NA. Hopefully we can get a bit of a PNA ridge at just the right time.
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No, its workable on the means. But we know it will be uncooperative at times. And again, my posts were wrt this particular op run.
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Oh I am sure I will get better rain events than that.
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It could be meteorologically impossible. Toss!
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Its one op run. I am just looking at it at face value. Not making any broader conclusions. I evaluate at h5, not the surface, and I can tell ya I saw where this run was heading pretty quickly.
