CAPE

They got up off the mat.

That is pretty nice look right there. All models have the great looking block, but not as favorable out west by day 15.

Steelers are awful. They should forfeit their playoff spot. Go Jets!

We need something. Cohen says warm east for 2 weeks+ once the SSWE gets underway in a few days. Then depending on exactly how that shakes out, we might get colder!

Sun feels warmer today.

Where do you get the Para? Hasn't updated on TT for days.

Extended GEFS. Its a bit of "pick your poison", but I would definitely roll the dice with this look, even if there might be a tendency for a SER to pop at times- and the blocking should suppress that.

Well I don't really "love" that look in the context of thinking its going to be great for snow chances here. It might work out because of climo, but we would generally have the same issues with lack of cold. Having a bit of ridging out west in combination with a west-based block should get us a better storm track at least.

Love that look at day 15. The massive Baffin Island block vs the One-eyed pig GOA vortex. What a cage match. Hopefully the suggestion of a PNA ridge is real. That would probably tilt things more in our favor.

What a look.

The way the Steelers have been playing, they would have trouble beating the Jaguars. Buffalo might not need that game next week, and would probably rest players. The Ravens just need take care of their business, and let the chips fall.

Been like that here the past 6 months in particular, but I don't know what exactly to attribute it to. SE parts of our region have definitely been slammed this year. It has always been more hit or miss with events here, especially rain during the summer, and it may very well go back to that tendency next year. eta- can we get this tendency at least once when there is some cold air in place?

Raiders are a disaster. Too bad the Steelers are in a free fall. Nevertheless..

The main reason we are seeing east coast/WAR on the models is because a lot of energy is breaking off of the main vortex, dumping out west, and amplifying. Ofc it is also loading our nearby source region for cold, which has been a problem so far. If that vortex breaks down, then we play with fire as the flat Pac ridge will likely expand/strengthen, and we may end up with a mean trough out west anyway, and an increased likelihood of a SER. Ideally we get the Pac ridge displaced further NE towards AK, and build heights into the EPO domain. Fwiw, the extended GEFS does this around mid month, but the main Pac ridge is centered a bit too far west, so it has the trough mostly in the western US and a tendency for SER, but it doesn't look like it would be a fixture. The blocking is there, and more west based, so that would help. The pattern continues to look active, and despite the issues with the Pacific, there will be chances. Hopefully the end result doesn't resemble last winter lol.

Go Steelers!

lol Read my latest post. Maybe that will help answer your question.

When we have high latitude blocking, northern Canada is going to be "relatively warm". The intrinsic state is lower heights in the HL regions, and the cold tends to stay there. We need that to be inverted to get persistent cold down here in the midlatitudes...BUT, the primary issue so far is the strong, sustained NE Pac vortex pumping warm Pac air into our nearby source region for cold. So the HL blocking is not really the issue(although the NA ridge has been positioned too far east so far)- rather there is simply a lack of cold air to drive far enough southward, and the baroclinic zone ends up further NW. That zone represents a thermal gradient, or zone of conflict, and is where low pressure will develop/track along the eastern side of a trough. Unfortunately that has been generally west of our area so far this early winter. It remains to be seen if that can shift further SE as we move forward. A combo of relaxation of the NE PAC trough (colder in the Yukon)and a continuation of the negative AO plus more of a west based -NAO would allow for some favorable outcomes as we head into our best snow climo period. So yeah, patience lol.

Ravens can help them seal the deal.

Thanks.

I wouldn't worry too much about the end of an op run. Recent GEFS runs have been consistently depicting a developing west based block beyond day 10, as has the EPS.

Who is "them"?

I am just having a bit of fun. I do most of my "productive" posts in the early AM. I am down with all of these general ideas and have been for awhile.

Some of us don't honk. We just state what the current guidance is depicting, add a little context, and speculate a bit. Ofc I am probably not a well respected poster, so no one really cares what I say.

High of 32. Kept a fire going all day. Heat pump didn't kick on once.

Man if you think people are panicking here...check out the NE subforum. Probably bad news for us when they are melting.