CAPE

Is the HP located at the southern tip of Hudson Bay, and is it strong enough?

Looking pretty soft. Really bad tackling on that TD run.

AR baby. He is a bad man.

Its a CAM. Good for pinpointing convection(theoretically), but there ain't none of that with this system lol.

12km

Since it has my yard in a lolli i am gonna hug it.

GB D needs to do more of that or its gonna be a long day.

3km NAM is in decent agreement with is coarser brother. Has mini snow lollis and dead spots in between lol.

Me too.

I am going to go out on a limb and suggest it is overdoing the intensity of the precip on the front end just a tad. I know.. that would be very un-NAM like.

LOL this is so perfect from Mount Holly. Not only a great and accurate description of this "event", but also in a larger sense how everything seems to come together and conspires to prevent it from snowing here. Uncanny. A long duration but mostly low impact weather system is expected for Monday night through Tuesday night. Low pressure tracking out of the southern Plains will steadily fill in and occlude as upper level support diminishes, while a weak secondary coastal wave develops south of Delmarva. The result will be an increasingly elongated but poorly organized field of precipitation over the eastern half of the country, which will bring some unsettled weather to our area. Limiting factors with this system are plentiful. Dynamically, most of our precipitation Monday night into Tuesday will be warm advection driven as the primary low tracks to our west. However, this lift source will be weakening as the system becomes more elongated and fractured. The mid level shortwave trailing the surface low will be deamplifying as it runs into ridging in place over the East. This ridging will also prevent the developing coastal wave from achieving any kind of coherent organization even as the primary low weakens. The result is a strung out mess both at the surface and aloft. In addition to weakening upper support, low level dry air will be plentiful at the onset with Canadian high pressure in place well to the north. This will erode the leading edge of the precipitation shield, and lead to a very slow northeastward advance of precipitation Monday night.

No different than usual lol.

Perspective. Other things are way more important. It's the same with rooting for a football team. I don't let in ruin my day or a whole week if the Ravens lose. I have other stuff in my life going on, as I am sure you do. Music right?

I don't look at it that way. I am way past the days of getting disappointed over things I have zero control over. I do like winter weather much more than long, brutally hot and humid summers, and I am considering moving elsewhere when life situations allow it. Might be pretty soon.

At least the UK can still take advantage of a favorable NA.

At this juncture, we can point out what we think needs to happen, but not sure any of it is fixable. Probably should root for the TPV to drop the eff in and phase.

Look where the TPV was on the CMC a few runs ago. It still produced a nice snowstorm for the area.

The interaction with the NA trough is the main issue on the last couple GFS runs imo. Doesn't allow the wave to deepen as rapidly/close to the coast. The Euro has had this look, and seems to have been the primary difference when comparing it to the better GFS runs. 12z yesterday was still a pretty decent run. Look at the difference:

It has been deteriorating for several runs now. The good waa precip gets shunted SE, and the remnant moisture from the parent low heads up over N PA and S NY.

My forecast is for "around an inch". My goal is to see flakes fall at a decent clip for 30 mins, and end up with a coating that looks more impressive than all the heavy frosts I have seen over the past couple weeks. At least blocking patterns can still make frosty mornings.

Its meso time. NAMs get too much love.

I added that last part in to induce a Ji reply.

6z EPS looks essentially the same as 0z. Probably a tick further SE.