CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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The trend is your friend on the EPS.
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It's better than 96 and 2009-10 how can it possibly disappoint?
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Not much to say that hasn't been said 100x at this point on the LR outlook. Outside of chasing freezing drizzle, mangled flakes, or a sleet pellet for extreme northern parts of the region in the short term, we are in wait and watch mode for awhile. Maybe something trackable pops up on guidance over the next few days as we move a bit closer to the sweeeeeet period we all know is imminent.
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Yeah it looks like the 'warmth' is a bit delayed from previous forecasts, probably after we dry slot. Just a bit of a disparity between the NAMs and the GFS though- GFS has 50s and even 60s(here) on Sat, NAM never gets the warmer air even to my yard, and keeps the area in the 40s.
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My post wasn't directed specifically at you. The point was we don't need a true arctic airmass in place(for the lowlands) leading up to an event in order to get a snowstorm. Moderate cold will work when the atmospheric setup is very favorable.
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Yeah, it tends to be colder further north. Maybe go back and read the context of the original posts.
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None were very cold leading in. The first storm in Feb I remember temps being around 36 when the first flakes were falling, and the temp pretty quickly dropped to freezing, and then into the mid 20s. The next one was actually rain here for the first part, but when the actual low that became the blizzard moved in, temps fell into the 20s. The coldest by far was the late Jan event where temps were in the teens and stayed there during the whole storm.
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Having all the features in the right places is the key. If the west based block is legit, we should have HP where we need it, and not running away, and lower heights where we want it off of the Canadian Maritimes. There are always variations and more "risk" for the coastal plain, but having a persistent -AO/NAO is about as good as it gets for snow chances.
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It wasn't super cold for any of the 3 big storms in 2009-10. We had the great blocking with a perfect storm track, and ofc we had the active stj with a moderate Nino.
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A poleward shift/relaxation of the Pac jet and associated +PNA does wonders for our temps. Not super cold but much improved towards the end of the run without the firehose pointed straight at us.
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Sounds good. PM me.
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If you can make it, meet me in Kent Island tomorrow. Going to donate blood at 3 pm then I will be heading to the Winery at Red Apple Plaza to pick up some stuff for NYE after that.
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The infotainment system. What vehicle do you have?
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I'll trade these RAR bacon stouts for some of your pumpkin stout
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That sounds like a great stout.
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Yeah I read reviews based on that version- layers of coffee and dark chocolate. Needless to say I was a bit surprised lol. I will be in kent Island tomorrow from about 3pm to maybe 5pm.
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Drinking a Guinness Stock Ale. Now this is a good stout.
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Have you tried the latest version of RAR First Meal Stout? Holy shit is it awful lol. Unless you like chewing on a slab of salty hickory smoked bacon. What a terrible concept. Worst damn thing I have ever drank. I have 3 of the 4 left if you want them lol.
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Yeah I think Cohen is going with the most conservative possible outcome. I just posted it for fun. Given what we are seeing on the LR means now with the blocking, it seems like we should be legitimately in the game around mid month or so. Could always luck into something before that too.
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Steelers are going to rest a bunch of players. No Big Ben, as expected. Good news for the Browns. Lets see if they can take advantage and break their awful streak of futility. Otoh, this wont help the Ravens and Colts. Ofc the Ravens don't need any help if they take care of business against the Bengals. I think this is going to be a lot more challenging than it really should be.
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Good practice for when the blocking gets real.
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When you see Tropospheric vortices crawling around/trapped under the block, you know its legit. This is what we need.
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I posted about this early this morning. I beat the expert to the punch!
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lol depends on which one of the SPV doctors you want to believe. They all say something a little different. Just looking at the forecasted 50 and 500 mb height/temp anomaly alignment I would say we are coupled and primed for long term blocking. Just give me that massive west-based block at the end of the Euro run and hope the Pacific calms down a bit. I will leave the rest of the esoteric SPV voodoo stuff to the geeks to figure out.
