CAPE

^Headed to Tug Hill?

Those who are jonesing for Spring snow should take a drive. The places that typically get it are going to, and maybe a good amount in some cases. Per WPC- As the low lifts northeast, it will be accompanied by moist and warm advection from the Gulf of Mexico with widespread and ample precipitation spreading northward. Initially, the column will be too warm for any wintry precipitation. However, a cold front sinking southeastward will lead to CAA and full-column cooling, aided by what is likely to be an intense deformation axis on the NW side of the low, into which robust WAA will drive strong omega through the DGZ. This suggests that a period of heavy snow is likely as precip changes over from rain to snow, and model-cross sections indicate a chance for CSI banding across upstate New York Thursday morning. While the heaviest snow is likely in the terrain where temperatures will be colder and cool more quickly, WPC probabilities for moderate to heavy snow have expanded slightly to encompass some lower terrain as well where the dynamic cooling will overcome the marginal low-level thermal structure. WPC probabilities have increased, and are now high for 6 inches on days 2.5-3 in the Finger Lakes region, the Tug Hill Plateau, and Adirondacks of New York. In the Adirondacks, locally more than 10" is likely where some upslope enhancement will occur as NW flow develops behind the low. WPC probabilities for 4 inches are moderate for much of upstate New York outside of the Hudson River Valley, and parts of VT. Lighter snows adding up to a few inches are likely as the low pulls away in the favored upslope regions of WV, and downwind of Lake Erie and Ontario.

Looks familiar.

Bugs are prolific. A late season freeze or 2 will have zero impact.

Well, a half inch or less there probably doesn't bode well for snow in your yard.

Mount Holly on snow chances. A tad different than that Ukie snow map above lol. For those who enjoy Spring snow, our eyes turn to the behind the cold front as cold air will race southeastward into the region by Thursday morning. I`m not to terribly bullish on wintry precipitation however with the cold air surging, its becoming increasingly likely that we`ll see rain turning to snow for the Poconos however it will likely be highly elevation dependent. Generally less than half an inch will be possible but with an increasing solar angle we may not see very much actually accumulate.

Latest AFD from Mount Holly- As the midnight shift mentioned this morning and I`ll repeat verbatim, "it is becoming clear is that the large-scale pattern is favorable for an axis of decently high QPF, with upper-level flow becoming increasingly parallel to the surface front. With intense large-scale ascent via differential cyclonic vorticity advection and warm/moist low- level advection, precipitation will be widespread and fairly long-duration (despite the fast movement of the surface low)." So the challenge is where exactly does that axis of heavy precip develop? Based on trends in model guidance, forecast keeps the heaviest precip over our CWA with the highest totals (1-1.5") just east of the I-95 corridor. While subtle shifts are likely within the guidance of the next couple of days, I anticipate we`ll see at least some portion of the forecast area will recieve a prolonged 6+ hours of moderate to at times heavy rain even as the system is gaining speed moving to towards the northeast. As such, we`ve introduced heavy rain wording into the forecast for the Wednesday afternoon and overnight time periods.

Guess where WPC has the axis of heaviest rain for Wed currently. Still some disparity across guidance. Hopefully no more than an inch.

Sudden wind.

73/64 Feels humid.

Temp has jumped to 73. Windy too.

Been partly sunny here the past hour.

Looks like the overrunning part is done. Only 0.18" here. 2.95" for the month currently.

Yeah it looks like maybe some isolated straight line wind damage, and an outside chance of a weak tornado SE. A run of the mill gusty storm with some T&L would be nice.

Warm frontal overrunning about to clear the area. No thunder here. Lets see if we can get the surface cooking now.

Raining pretty good here now. Haven't heard any thunder yet.

Just drizzle/light rain here. Looks like this first round may stay mostly to my NW. I'm not mad. It would be the first rain underperformer in about a year lol.

Not really LR anymore, but the mid to late week storm looks like it may be an impressive rain producer for our region. Latest AFD from Mount Holly- As the low approaches the CWA Wednesday afternoon and evening, considerable large-scale lift will be in place via right- entrance region upper divergence from a favorably positioned 250-mb jet streak, strong differential cyclonic vorticity advection downstream of the advancing, more neutrally-tilted trough, and substantial warm/moist advection on the northern periphery of a poleward-advancing warm sector. Models indicate widespread precipitation developing in this regime, convectively enhanced near the approaching front and in vicinity of the intensifying surface low. Model soundings do indicate some instability in the pre-frontal warm sector, especially if the surface low tracks farther west. Have added thunder to the forecast for much of the region Wednesday afternoon and evening. Heavy rainfall is quite possible with this setup, especially since upper-level flow will become oriented mostly parallel to the approaching front (thanks in large part to the high- amplitude ridging downstream). QPF of 1-2+ inches is depicted with the CMC/ECMWF (50+ percent less in the GFS/ICON). Given the potential convective enhancement of the precipitation and a couple of antecedent soaking rain events, this seems like a setup that favors some flooding potential. Will monitor this closely as the event approaches. In addition, very strong cold advection will occur on the upstream side of the cold front, with temperatures dropping 10-20 degrees in a matter of a few hours after frontal passage. The cold conveyor belt of the intensifying surface low, along with favorable frontogenetical forcing/deformation, may produce a band of precipitation on the west/northwest side of the low that lingers for several hours. Thermal profiles would favor a switchover to snow for the southern Poconos and far northwest New Jersey, perhaps resulting in some accumulations Thursday morning.

Lol wait until Wed-Thurs.

Yes it is, and thanks. Did it on the cheap a couple years ago and it turned out pretty good. The motivation was to further lessen the grass area, which is hard as hell to keep going in the woods and with the silty/sandy soil here. The wetland is back in the woods towards the left in that photo.

The morning round would be elevated convection on the backside of the initial wave with the warm front. If there is a decent period of clearing, the afternoon round might be a tad interesting. Without surface heating the inversion will hold and any severe will be isolated at best. Severe looks more likely in central and esp SE VA.

After mowing the chickweed down, the grass(and clover) look pretty good. Beginning of the "good lawn " period. That will last until about mid June here, then it will gradually burn to hell from the Solstice through August. Then it is rinse and repeat in the Fall. Or just give up lol.

Enhanced risk for SE VA now.

Time to mow the chickweed.

Euro/EPS is more amplified and not as progressive as the GFS, so that would be the evolution to root for to get a chance of frozen for the MA. Even that as depicted would favor the western highlands and maybe places like NE PA- typical climo favored regions for Spring snow.