CAPE

Chuck?

And it continues. After a couple days of warm and muggy this week, heat gets knocked back as another trough digs in over eastern Canada, with an upper ridge building well to our west. Looks a bit unsettled Friday with a potential disturbance moving along the front, possibly lingering into Saturday. Potentially a really nice weekend with temps in the low 80s.

Looks like a really nice fourth with temps well into the 80s and dewpoints in the low 50s.

Probably not much that can be done about it other than place it where the wind is blocked. I am in the woods so I have tree branches that hang over the gauge no matter where I put it. Tends to catch lower than actual, but not by much. I use this link to compare. https://www.iweathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours You can zoom right in over your yard and click to get the rainfall. It tends to be a bit higher than my gauge especially when trees are leafed out, which makes sense. Always pretty close though- usually within 0.15".

There was some decent T&L with the storms that moved through last evening, but the line was weakening as it approached. On and off showers overnight into this morning bumped the rain total up to 0.68".

from CPC/NCEP- In summary, though La Niña is favored to continue through the end of the year, the odds for La Niña decrease into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (52% chance in July-September 2022) before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (58-59% chance.. Most likely we are looking at a weak Nina for Fall/early Winter, trending neutral towards early 2023.

It's a bit early for this lol. Chill.

I wonder how much it costs the Canadians to run the CanSIPS? New edition implies a 'close the shades' type winter. Has the broad, flat Pacific ridge south of the Aleutians and +AO/NAO for the entire winter. Lucky for us the CFS is not as bad.

Next week looks potentially active with a frontal boundary in the area and a series of subtle shortwaves moving through the northwesterly flow aloft.

I've seen worse patterns heading into the heart of summer. This look would likely produce temps around average for the MA.

57 here.

A few rumbles of thunder and a decent downpour. 0.32". Good enough to water the plants.

June so far.

Same here. Decent gust front but the line split. Didn't even get much rain from it.

Up to 1.35" here now. Beneficial rain this morning. Looks like it's winding down.

Repeating pattern continues. Some brief upper ridging and warming this weekend, then looks like back to a few days of 80 w/upper 50s at night.

Steady, soaking rain here now as that band has expanded east. Up to 0.75".

0.62" here, but all that fell late afternoon/evening yesterday. That N-S band has been just to my west overnight. Places along the Bay have received 2"+ amounts. Guidance shows it shifting east later this morning but also weakening.

I was at terrapin on Kent Island when the initial part of that N-S training band hit. Got soaked. Drove out of it heading home, and now looking at radar and see that area continues to get it pretty good. Meanwhile 0.38" here at home. Honestly wasn't expecting anything here before tonight.

Heaviest rain looks to occur along the N-S lying stationary front, which seems to favor central PA into C MD and N VA based on latest guidance. Still uncertain exactly where that front will be and how it interacts with the upper low off the coast. WPC has central MD including DC in a slight risk for excessive rain D2.

55 here currently.

Best chance of hitting/exceeding 90 this week looks to be tomorrow, and more likely for places west of DC.

49 here this morning.

A spilt flow pattern setting up this week.

Repeating pattern continues for now. The next NS closed low flattens the upper ridge before it propagates east, with the tendency for low pressure off the NE coast to keep our region coolish/ inhibit the eastward advance of big heat.