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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    Not much different than 12z really. It is just missing the shield of lighter precip further NW. If I really cared, I would look at the individual members but right now I have better things to do. Another run to over-analyze in a few hours.
  2. CAPE
    They are pretty useless at range imo, but the masses want to see those blues and purples and pinks.
  3. CAPE
    A tweak or 2 and we are good.
  4. CAPE
  5. CAPE
    It is a phase but it's positively tilted. Given the ridge axis and the continued progressive nature of the pattern, I'm not sure what you are looking for is in the cards.
  6. CAPE
    Don't forget the ICONIC SUCK and CMC. They are on the suppressed side but its there. And the CMC ens is closer than the op.
  7. CAPE
    That type of interaction is generally want we want. A scoop not a squash, and it needs to happen far enough west. Always timing.
  8. CAPE
    I think its too soon simply because this is all we have to track at this point so there is no reason to start another thread.
  9. CAPE
    It is with the initial piece but then there is yet another hammer coming down lol. Very volatile with the amped up ridge and the TPV shedding off vortices. More fun and games(changes) to come.
  10. CAPE
    Jiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiinnnnnnnxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  11. CAPE
    We got a storm. Details are for later. SE VA PUMMELEDD!
  12. CAPE
    Its better but might not quite get it done this run. effing WB..
  13. CAPE
    I am on pokey WB but at hour 129 it looks better than 0z run
  14. CAPE
    The southern vort is stronger and further west(good) and we want the NS to come in further west and play nice
  15. CAPE
    Still some work to do, but the idea is there across guidance now. GEFS better.
  16. CAPE
    The ICON SUCKS has it, but it's a southern VA/Lower eastern shore hit.
  17. CAPE
    Back away from the op snow maps at range. Slooow, steady now. I know you can.
  18. CAPE
    Deep winter look and feel end of Feb/Early March? Been awhile.
  19. CAPE
    I always thought the late week deal was too soon. Once it goes by we have the cold coming in, and the Euro I think was the first I noticed depicting some trailing energy a day or so later. That was the key.
  20. CAPE
    You need to show up earlier for these models runs- I am not a PbP guy, more of a color commentator. I promise I won't be a Romo and talk all over you though.
  21. CAPE
    The changes were evident pretty early- More separation from the NS energy associated with the Thursday-Friday storm, so our shortwave was sharper/ wester, and better interaction with the next NS piece dropping in.
  22. CAPE
    12z GFS- Our shortwave of interest is more distinct/stronger with higher h5 heights out in front. NS coming in. Lets see if we phase.
  23. CAPE
    lol thanks. I do my best. I don't always have the time, but when I do and there is something trackable, I try to do a bit more analysis. Hopefully some folks get something out of it, and I don't make a fool of myself in the process.
  24. CAPE
    12 km NAM at range- always a good laugh.
  25. CAPE
    You sure the guidance has the ridge placement and amplitude correct 6+ days out? How about the timing and depth of the NS energy dropping southward? Uncertainty is the answer.
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