CAPE

2018 was a good one. Classic paste bomb even here. Think I ended up with 7" or so, and you probably did better iirc. Ofc that was another one of those recent "good" Nina winters for eastern areas in general.

Temp down to 33 here, but only 0.02" of drizzle. Generally just a cold, gray winter day. I'm not hating it. Pretty cool contrast from yesterday when it was 70 and sunny.

All subject to change. Significant model errors in ridge amplitude/ axis and timing of northern stream energy coming south is likely at this range. (as we just saw with the failed Sunday-Monday potential).

Yeah I saw that on the GFS. It looks like something that would probably end up further NE. Already coming in a bit too far east at an odd trajectory for our area. Could always trend the other way though!

yeah I need to load up on omega-6

12z GFS teasing for around the 10th. Way out there but this is the period where recent ensemble guidance has been depicting a pretty nice h5 look.

Good luck. This event has been pretty much locked in for days now with some frozen/freezing precip up that way. I just hope the road crews have something better to do around here than drop a bunch of salt on the roads.

36 here. Looks like some chilly light rain today and maybe a more substantial chilly rain tonight. Temps should be pretty steady here until rising later tonight.

The Super bowl day event trended right into the lap of Psu land. It was pretty localized but it trended NW across guidance in the few days prior, well other than the GFS, which never figured that one out.

This might of been the worst storm thread since the internet was invented in 1995 There was no requirement for you to follow it. You probably weren't getting snow from it even if it had transpired.

Nothing killed it. In reality it (our storm) never existed. It was always going to end up however it ends up. NWP mathematical model simulations will always have error, and we, being silly humans, are generally willing to invest in what we would like to be true.

67 here. The high was 70. I might wash the Jeep. It still has some road salt on it from the mostly fail event on SB Sunday.

68 here at work in Easton.

That map indicates what we already know to be the likely outcome over the next several days- all the snow will fall from central PA and north, and little to nothing south of there. Maybe check out the 2 storm threads!

Remember my advice the other day about backing away from the snow maps? You somehow manage to glean information that simply isn't there.

He meant to post the precip anomaly map. Must be slipping a bit.

This is true.

Tilapia

Oh I had others in mind, but I decided to keep it clean.

Might score a mid March paste bomb! At this point persistent cold or snow on the ground for more than a day is a fantasy. This upcoming period won't resemble March of 14 or 15. That h5 look is showing up on both the EPS and GEFS though, and with hints of a blocking ridge around Greenland- albeit displaced further north than ideal- you can see how it might help keep the TPV displaced in a good spot, and to slow vortices moving through the 50-50 region.

Sounds like a frustrated weenie who lives in a place where it rarely snows.

^Maybe this guy should be limited to zero daily posts.

Difficult to see how this can work out given how things have 'evolved' on the guidance over the last day or so. In a nutshell the northern stream energy has no sharpness and no dig. It is a broad, flattish vorticity lobe with the vorticity spread out within that lobe. Earlier runs were depicting a sharper, more elongated wave that dropped down the east side of the ridge far enough west that it was able to interact with the shortwave ejecting out of the SW.

These people at Mount Holly don't seem to understand. Quieter weather expected for the long term with high pressure bringing fair but chilly conditions for Saturday with plenty of sunshine followed by the approach of the next upper level trough and an associated cold front Sunday. It will be warmer Sunday ahead of this feature but there will also be the chance for some rain/snow showers. Thankfully, model consensus keeps the threat for southern-stream precipitation Sunday well south of our area with the cold front remaining a little slower and not able to phase with this energy over the Southeast.