CAPE

Be careful riding the 12k NAM/Canadian combo against the better guidance That said, I have expected a more expansive area of precip further NW. Need to see some movement in that direction by the GFS and Euro at 6 and 12z. The Euro actually has a decently broad precip shield- it just needs to juice up a bit.

The worm has to turn at some point. Bad luck and all that, but climo says it should especially given areas south and east are now above average- and February is the time where it just seems to find ways to snow.

The window for a period of moderate snow seems tied to this upper jet on the front side of the trough, with a ribbon of vorticity below at h5. Pretty impressive jet and the models might be underdoing the extent of the precip. I think the 1-3 area has a chance to be more widespread(expanded north) than depicted. The quest for more blues continues..

I think we generally know what this is going to be, but I still think there is potential for some juicing up/expansion of the precip as we get closer. Could always go the other way too.

Just grasping at straws up in here, trying to spread those blues.

Possibly, but also need a wave of some significance to be riding along that boundary.

Considering the GFS is pretty much alone with the aggressive cold push, and it was wrong with that last storm, it is possible that the location/duration of the max precip area is not correct. It will be interesting to see the CMC and Euro, given what the ICON() just did.

ICON snow map. Quite a shift north and juiced with the precip(not all snow) and the coastal is a factor. Too bad IT SUCKS.

lol ICON. Who knows, once in awhile it figures something out.

Oh stop lol. I decoded incorrectly.

Misery loves company.

Agreed, but it did move towards the better guidance this run.

NAM trying with the coastal at the end lol

Another potential issue with the GFS (again) is that it is more aggressive with the cold. It is significantly colder than other guidance while precip is falling. CMC and Euro are marginal at the surface.

I wouldn't mind that either, but the GFS has been a bit unsteady lately. Still think 1-3 seems reasonable, maybe a bit more down your way if the GFS has a clue.

Consult with DT.

A coating of snow on SB Sunday following a Spring-like Saturday would be lovely.

Throw out the NAM, which is a complete outlier, (and should almost always be thrown out on principle) the preponderance of guidance suggests a minor event on the order of an inch to maybe as much as 3 in a few places. Any changes that occur going forward would probably be minor, with a better chance of it going the wrong way given the overall fast/progressive nature of the pattern.

6z EPS is slightly west with the trough, and mean low position is slightly closer to the coast. Trough still positively tilted and results in the same general outcome.

If we want to see any impacts from the coastal yes. As it stands the southern vort sliding up on the east side of the developing trough is the focus for any snow we get as depicted. That also induces the coastal low, but too late. Shift that all west some and well.. maybe.

GFS has trended towards the Euro at h5, with more of a NS vorticity lobe rather than an elongated, sharper shortwave more conducive for a phase with the southern vort, which would result in a sharper, deeper trough allowing for a bigger event. Instead we are seeing the depiction of a broader trough with the vorticity disjointed and strung out, and little to no impact from the coastal low, which is too far east. 12z yesterday that produced a significant event- 6z run this morning-

The problem with getting any love from the actual coastal is the NS is still largely acting as a wrecking ball, broadening the overall trough, and shoving everything east. The coastal low develops over the baroclinic boundary offshore and gets going too far east.

Good luck with that!

Looking at the GFS over the past few model cycles, the primary NS shortwave has trended more towards a vorticity lobe(lacks sharpness) and the attempted phase with the southern shortwave is sloppy(partial/late).The precip we get as depicted is associated with the southern vorticity max that slides up ahead of the broadening trough as the NS dives in behind. This southern vort has trended sharper/ further SE. The NAM fwiw has it further NW. Don't have time to go through all the guidance but suffice to say some changes in the subtle interactions are still possible.