CAPE

With the advertised pattern there likely will be no long trackers(probably a good thing). Still a decent chance something pops up around March 10th, but in general the 'good looks' on the ens means with the SE ridge flatter and the boundary closer have been getting can kicked a bit. Problem with that is we don't have much road left.

It used to be a pain in the ass (one at a time) but it's been multi-select and delete for a while now.

Where's Ji? HH GFS was a disaster!

It's all relative lol, but in general, better with age and experience.

Thanks. I just try to do objective analysis as much as possible without debbing or cheer leading. Years ago on Eastern I came across as too much the former for trying to call it as I saw it. Probably too heavy handed. I simply wasn't as good a poster then either, but most here can probably look back and say that. It was a different environment back then too, with no sub-forums and generally more weenies and model hugging (I think) without knowing/caring about the physics.

I actually did the beds in front last December after the last of the leaves came down. Stocked up on mulch the few weeks prior. Looks great out there and about 30% less to do now.

Going to put some fresh mulch down today. Chickweed is emerging, and the dandelions are perking up just off the surface getting ready to prolifically spread. Time to extract some (losing battle) but it feels good when you yank that carrot up.

Exactly. I made a post the other day when it first showed up on the GFS saying the same thing. This sort of a deal might work better for places further NE, but pretty low probability around here east of the mountains.

This has been pretty persistent on the GFS op runs, but it's an odd set up. Basically a glancing blow type frontal boundary with some colder air behind it, but I have my doubts about how far south it actually gets, the degree of cold, and the mechanism for any significant precip. Probably the most likely outcome is an uneventful brief cool down before we warm again next weekend. The 6z GEFS suggests maybe a light coating of snow, but not much of anything on the CMC ens or the EPS.

Fun times tracking another small scale event lol. As advertised it is probably about a 50-75 mile wide area of decent precip. At h5 there really isn't a shortwave, and the upper jet as advertised isn't all that favorable. Appears this would mostly be driven by the sharp temperature gradient across the Artic boundary with fgen forcing at h7 and h85. I am sure the models have the location of that boundary (and forcing) nailed.

Perpetual. Should be rapidly winding down over the next couple weeks. Love that layer cake off to the right.

That's a given. And you can have that a day or 2 before and after a paste bomb.

March 14 > 93 March 15 > 93 We aren't getting those though. I will take a storm like March of 18 over 93. This is an IMBY bizness.

It's a crapshoot, and it wasn't my idea to name storms after me lol. (well the Jan 3 one maybe given the crap pattern we were in at the time I got bullish on that window). The last one(the fail for this Sunday)I just saw as a sneaky chance with that trailing wave after the storm of last night went by and the boundary sinking south, with colder air in place. It looked promising for a few days, but as has often been the case this winter, the guidance was pretty far off on the timing and placement of the NS feature(s) at range.

At this juncture I would put my money(about a dollar) on the March 8-12 window for a possible modest to moderate winter storm based on the currently advertised pattern progression on the means.

Probably not, but you never know. It has been hinting at a little something for that timeframe but that sort of a look will almost always be underwhelming east of the mountains and/or end up further north.

I went back and looked at my photos and it was more of an all day event here on the 21st, but didn't really get going good until early afternoon. Heaviest was late afternoon into the early evening.

Yeah I don't remember it melting that fast. Ofc the height of it here was late afternoon I think with the deform band.

The medium range looks pretty active but for now it looks like most of the action will be north of us. Looking ahead, recent GFS op runs have advertised a winter storm that takes a more favorable track for our region around the 10th. Looks active leading up to that and the pattern looks decent, but it remains to be seen if anything can track underneath. The best h5 look on the GEFS is centered on March 10 with a favorable AO and NAO, indication low heights off the Canadian Maritimes, and there is a bit of a signal for a storm. Still out in fantasyland and it is getting kinda late.

Rained most of the night with the temp right at 32. A bit of a glaze on the deck railing and tree branches, but nothing too significant. More rain that I expected though given how dry some of the guidance looked. 0.42" and still raining lightly. Temp up to 33.

Temp down to 32 now. Dry out there though. Not sure I will see much more than a tenth total for the 'event'.

I remember that one I think. I was just a kid and it was a nearly snowless winter and the forecast was for 1-2" iirc. Ended up with close to a foot. School let out early and fun times sledding late that afternoon.

33 and maybe some mist out there. Not even drizzle lol. 0.02" total. Quite an event so far!