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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    Yeah I was all over this last night. Some of the guidance has trended wetter/more expansive with precip over the last several runs.
  2. CAPE
    61 currently after a low of 27.
  3. CAPE
  4. CAPE
    RGEM cut back but still pretty good along I-95. Need a save from the CMC
  5. CAPE
  6. CAPE
    Don't let RR see this.
  7. CAPE
    A bit late for me. I am already larviciding for Spring mosquito deletion at that point lol. March 5th is better.
  8. CAPE
    Gonna get a double digit paste bomb in mid March with 65 degrees on either side. I am basing that on Chuck's -NAO prediction, WDI, March is a better snow month than December, shortened wavelengths, and seasonal trends. Maybe scratch that last one.
  9. CAPE
    Nam3k is always drier than every other model. Toss it It isn't dry lol. Wetter than the Euro. NAM nest is more useful when in range than the 12km, which is trash.
  10. CAPE
  11. CAPE
    It does seem that west central VA is where the the vorticity along the front, the upper jet, (and probably some terrain enhancement) coincide and provide the best ascent. Further eastward the forcing may weaken some as the trough starts to approach the coast and the coastal low gets going.
  12. CAPE
    The NAM is doing NAM things. It is erratic as eff- just look at its last 4 runs lol. That being said, it seems to be working its way towards the general idea of the better models, but swerving like a drunk along the path.
  13. CAPE
    It could but I think that cake is baked at this juncture. The reality is any direct impacts from the coastal low are probably going to be minor and confined to areas E/SE. I would have to look at the individual members but probably a handful have the coastal organizing sooner/closer to the coast.
  14. CAPE
    Seeing hints of maybe a bit of love from the coastal on the last few EPS runs.
  15. CAPE
    6z EPS
  16. CAPE
    12km NAM for comparison.
  17. CAPE
    If anyone is still tracking the upper levels, forget the NS lobe, the energy dropping in on the backside of the trough, trough axis etc. Not likely to see any meaningful changes with that. The lift is associated with that southern vorticity ribbon on the front side of the trough, and the strong upper jet above.
  18. CAPE
    Modest dreams can come true. 1-3 is the goal. Euro juiced up some.
  19. CAPE
  20. CAPE
  21. CAPE
    Thanks for the persistent reminders! I had almost forgotten since your last posts a few hours ago.
  22. CAPE
    Latest NBM. The 'enhanced' area of snow has shifted NW, likely influenced by the CMC and NAM.
  23. CAPE
    After the warm/wet storm late next week, we should be at least briefly colder in the wake, and there is a chance for something to ride the boundary next weekend. Can see the potential here on the GEFS.
  24. CAPE
    I have a feeling the 6z Euro will increase optimism for expansion of the blues.
  25. CAPE
    6z GFS still steadfast with the central VA jack, and better for S MD too.
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