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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    Extended GEFS also shows improvement on the Pac side for early March. Bob's gut plus LR guidance brings back the EPO ridge. I'm in!
  2. CAPE
    Finally seeing a few flakes falling.
  3. CAPE
    I didn't pay that much attention to all the runs, but it seems the Canadian did well with locating that area, although I don't think it had the higher amounts.
  4. CAPE
    If that area of strong lift had been over your area, temps would have fallen to freezing and snow would have accumulated. Maybe not the 4-5" that the Parrs folks got, but 2-3" would have been doable.
  5. CAPE
    Not getting pummeled?
  6. CAPE
    0.00 qpf = 0 flakes I think that area of snow tv is going to completely disintegrate before it ever makes it here lol.
  7. CAPE
    Open those blinds!!
  8. CAPE
  9. CAPE
    Some of the high res guidance develops a snow squall as the NS shortwave passes through later tonight. Looks like psu land maybe down towards Baltimore could see a burst of snow.
  10. CAPE
    That area was overdue for sure, and you got under the best lift associated with the right entrance region of that jet streak. It was always going to be a fairly small area that would get the heavier snow, but hard to pin down even a couple days out. It seems the Canadians did the best with getting that located correctly.
  11. CAPE
    Or worse, depending on location lol. Congrats.
  12. CAPE
    Mount Holly apparently gave a bit too much weight to the GFS, unwisely. Not sure they ever had 4" in the forecast for this area though. I saw 1-2, with some places up to 3. Either way, had you been paying more attention in this thread, you would have known what to expect.
  13. CAPE
    Enjoy the snow, and hopefully folks along I-95 in the metros get in on the fun. The best lift is shifting NE though and the intensity of the precip will likely wane some as it moves east/se. Nothing here and not expecting more than some light snow later this morning at this point. The GFS lol. It did try to adjust some at the very end but not really close to depicting reality.
  14. CAPE
    Different outcomes than the early/mid winter 'seasonal trends' often occur in late winter/early Spring for a variety of reasons, but in general terms the atmosphere is warming and the base state and associated drivers are shifting.
  15. CAPE
    I hope this is rhetorical, but either way I won't attempt to answer your question based on a model simulation 10 days out that will never come to fruition.
  16. CAPE
    It is better, and has closed the gap with the Euro, but having a bit of a bad stretch recently. I knock it lately mostly to be contrarian to all those who claim it is now the superior global model. Lol it is not.
  17. CAPE
    SREF looks entirely reasonable.
  18. CAPE
    That was the last event it nailed at range. Now the ICON figures it out sooner.
  19. CAPE
    This would be at least 3 losses in a row. It needs recalibrating.
  20. CAPE
    60 leading in to Jan 3rd Sadly this will be nothing like that here.
  21. CAPE
    These tools are all about hyperbole and getting the clicks. No one watches them on local newz anymore(who watches that shit?), so they have to stay 'relevant' somehow.
  22. CAPE
    Stubborn. Actually a bit south and not as broad with the precip max.
  23. CAPE
    Low of 31 here. UHI sucks.
  24. CAPE
    LOL the GFS seems so lost.
  25. CAPE
    We are likely going to get less snow here but not because of temps. It will be due the the initial upper jet streak maxing out further NW, then the new jet emerging from the base of the trough advancing up along the coast that will get the coastal low going, so might be a bit betwixt and between here with generally lighter snow. If moderate to heavy snow does fall here for a time, it will absolutely accumulate, esp given the timing from after midnight through the morning hours.
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