CAPE

38 with a soaking rain here this morning. 0.35" so far.

The recent trends across guidance are in the wrong direction. The wave(s) of interest will form along/ahead of the front, but recent runs of the globals are delaying the progression of the trough a bit, so the low pressure track is further west, thus warmer aloft and at the surface for much of our region while precip is falling as the cold is delayed. The general outcome that had been advertised before the more recent 'trend to better' was almost all of the precip falling ahead of the front in the warm sector. Lets see where we go from here. In general the further NW, the better if you want to see some significant snow.

CMC has been the least snowiest, and HH GFS resembles that depiction at the surface, but not quite as shitty. Any guesses how the next couple runs of the Euro will trend?

I was expecting this post lol.

Cold, dry wind following warm, wet rain. Well that's the most likely outcome.

C'mon dude, Carroll County is the northern hinterlands. Way up north. With mountains and stuff.

12z Euro is better.

Maybe next winter we can have a rule about bombarding the LR thread with snow maps every model cycle. They should be reserved for discrete storm threat threads imo. We had a thread for posting digital snow maps, but I guess it never got pinned.

0z Euro is also earlier and cleaner with phasing, and develops a sharper trough. Not as progressive, and that gives a low developing along the front more of a chance as the cold comes in. Maybe a bit of a trend here. CMC still not quite onboard.

And I didn't say I was rooting for a drought in winter, but somehow that was your take.

Early to mid March I would agree, at least in recent years. The end of March and into the second week of April.. maybe head to Canaan, or Maine.

You were talking like you get snow in your yard on the reg into the second week in April. The years I spent up there late March and early April were not at all memorable for winter weather. Ofc you might be the only one here who cares about a random wet snow shower at that point lol. I am sure the GFS will be there to tease you with the possibilities, maybe into May!

HH GFS with a sharper shortwave and a bit more in the way of snow as the cold comes in Saturday. GFS is 'noisy' the last several runs if nothing else.

They aren't very useful at range, and we sure don't need to see every d7-10 snow map from every op and ens run posted. That gets pretty tiresome. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think in the context of the Wed event, she meant that the snow maps verbatim aren't very useful with such marginal surface temps and likely low ratios. I made a post about that myself.

lol some of these Carroll county folks talk like they live in Maine. I lived there for 10 years plus and I remember one or 2 decent snow events in late March, and nothing significant comes to mind for April. Its a decent place for snow locally, but it ain't all that.

Dry isn't drought. Its relative. I don't want 4" of rain in March, and there are considerations other than snow. I had a great January here, so while I wont complain about some wet snow in the next couple weeks, it's not like something I live for. Rooting for big qpf going forward is rooting for rain, even in your yard. It's Spring dude.

Yeah Mount Manchester will have orographically enhanced continuous deathbands with a temp of 32.5, while the surrounding areas will be 34.7 with snow tv and light mulch coverings when it comes down harder.

Is this the place to talk about warm ground, March sun, and 35 degree surface temps?

I hope it stays dry for the next month. The water table has just broken the surface in my seasonal wetland- just a couple random shallow puddles. Easier to larvicide if it doesn't get too expansive.

Saturday looks like a wild day weather wise regardless. Warm, wind, maybe thunder, then sharp drop in temps. Maybe we can get some snow showers with the front but with the progressive look, any low that might form along the front as the cold comes in would probably end up too far east. That GFS run with the perfect phase and sharp negatively tilted trough would have done it, but it now looks similar to the Euro, although not quite as positively tilted.

Hope it came back quickly. GFS has fully caved, as we knew it would.

The Wed deal looks like classic snow tv. Very marginal low level temps and warm ground with no mechanism to bring colder air in at the surface other than elevation + rates. No one should be paying much attention snow maps as the ratios will probably be something like 5 or 6:1 for places where it manages to accumulate. The positive snow depth change map on the 3km NAM would probably be close to reality.

HH GFS looks just a tad different for next weekend lol. Almost a full cave to the Euro/CMC depiction.