CAPE

Pretty good outcome at this range. Just one op run. With no help in the NA we gonna need some good timing.

Well, it moved lol

Some crazy cold HP. Might be a bit much but its on the move with no blocking to speak of.

Hard to be mad, but if we just had more typical below avg temps this week with the true arctic cold/ HP just to our north, we would have been getting the snow instead of the deep deep south.

He is referring to the snowfall prediction contest for this winter. I think. I didn't participate but I am guessing most were on the low side, so yeah probably good.

There are some misconceptions about this and what is 'good' or 'bad'. It isn't that simple. There are also 2 Pacific Jets- The NPAC jet is a part of the Polar Jetstream, and what is often referred to as simply the Pacific jet is part of the Subtropical jet. (there is both a Polar and a subtropical jet in each hemisphere) The STJ is usually quite weak/retracted in a Nina while the Polar jet is predominant, and in a Nino the STJ becomes more prominent and tends to be extended and located further south. That's what gives us the active storm track across the southern US. There are also 'degrees' of retraction/extension with both jets. In general a jet with an extended core of stronger winds favors a ridge in the western US (+PNA), and retractions favor a -PNA.

High of 17. 2 straight days in the mid to upper teens doesnt happen too often. With clear skies tonight, should get down around 5.

Yeah it had a pretty nice look at h5 and the surface for the very end of the month, close to the same window as the AI storm.

Yeah cloudy here all night. Only a low of 11.

For early next week- probably not a high probability at this point but there is still enough uncertainty to keep an eye on it. The wave timing and degree of interaction between energy ejecting eastward from the southwest, and NS energy riding overtop the ridge and dropping southward is probably not going to be exactly correct as currently modeled. On current runs(GFS here) the NS vorticity digs down right overtop the southern energy and it shears out and then gets kicked off the coast with only weak surface development/precip in the mid south and a bit of snow in KY and TN on the northern edge.

First things first. Early next week is still on the table with some energy ejecting out of the SW. No way to know at this point how exactly the NS energy will interact. GEFS suggests some potential exists.

Yeah I keep waiting for someone to prove the earth isn't a sphere. Seems really flat when I look out my window.

Best chance for a dusting or a bit more will be the immediate coast- Rehoboth to OC. The rest of us will have a virga storm with a few flakes making it to the ground in some places.

18 currently, which is the high for the day.

We know you don't care about the science. All you crave is model generated digital blue over your yard every run, and become performative when you don't get it.

The Canadians have some minor accumulations too. I made a post or 2 about this days ago in the other thread, but its just weaker than it could have been. UL energy moving east underneath a strong jet streak at 300 mb. Good lift but dry air/not much moisture available.

Only dangerous if you smoke it.

Oh damn not that again

Anti-science people on a science based weather forum. Too funny.

16 and cloudy. 12z Euro has a half inch of snow falling here this evening lol

Monday is still on the table. Beyond that around Feb 2 or so.

Puking stellar dendrites in Lafayette lol

Amazing it is https://www.klfy.com/sky10-camera-network/

14 currently. Not sure it gets out of the teens today without any sun.

That would be better, but a favorable Pacific can deliver as long as it doesn't get completely hostile up top. GEFS has the AO trending closer to neutral around the end of the month.