CAPE

There is a pretty complex split flow pattern that probably explains some of the differences between the models for mid/late week. GFS is notably less amplified than the Euro.

Days are noticeably longer. Sunrise/sunset positions are notably different. I can sense Spring on the way, and its a bit depressing.

I don't think this is very good trend if you are a Polar Vortex.

We just experienced a longwave pattern that produced the coldest Jan in many years. Atmospheric memory.

Yeah I see some difference at the surface on WB. I generally only look at h5 on the extended product, and I don't trust it for more than 10 days beyond the end of the ens run it initializes from. Too prone to going to boilerplate ENSO climo. Don't we know it after last winter.

Euro? Looks pretty similar to the last run to me. Last couple runs have really picked up on the improved look in the NA, which makes sense given recent ens runs.

Sun and temps in the 40s and 50s mostly did in the last of the actual snow cover. The rain took care of the leftover patches and shrunk the piles, but more importantly it washed the roads of caustic salt.

Chuck told me thats a +NAO

Easy. Hug the one with a -PNA.

The GFS is kind of by itself with the more diffuse shortwave energy and flatter/colder solution.

Snow climo for Feb is pretty darn good for the lowlands too.

Rainfall event total- 0.93"

The takeaway from that product(specifically for that location) is that snow becomes at least possible around the 9th and the strongest signal is the 12-14th window, but that's 10+ days out. Even there a significant number of members have little or no snow. Overall still pretty scattershot. Imo the snow mean tools become more useful when there is consensus on a discrete threat inside 7 days. I will say given the advertised pattern progression, that window around the 12th does look interesting. Prior to that it's probably going to be more of a struggle to get snow for most of our region.

The 18z GEFS has that look. First time we are seeing an indication of an actual 50-50 low on the mean.

This is the period where things can really get interesting and set us up for the latter half of Feb into March. The NE PAC ridge amplifies and undergoes an anticyclonic wave break, forcing a significant piece of energy associated with the TPV rotating southward to push eastward towards Atlantic Canada, which in turn begins to build h5 heights into Greenland.. From there the progression continues, with additional energy dropping southward overtop the EPO ridge, flattening the SE ridge and initiating further amplification in the NA, with a potential atmospheric block developing around mid month.

There might be a shot next week for something minor, then again in the 10-12th window, but its low probability for our region imo. Indices/teleconnections favor mild here. We are now pattern chasing for the latter half of the month at this point, and there are some good signs, but no slam dunks. All been discussed ad nauseum already. Just a waiting game and monitor how the pattern evolves over the next 15 days to see what actually materializes.

It's D15 on an op run. Chill with the over analysis.

6Z GFS is all about it. Certainly are indications on the ensemble runs lately, with the Scandi ridge building into the NAO domain.

Improvement in the NA on the 18z GEFS- a little closer to a useful NAO block, thermal boundary pressed further south with below avg temps pushing into the MA for mid month. Still waiting on the Pacific to shift a bit.

Other than something transient, -NAO wasn't a thing that winter.

-NAO not always required for snow.

Nice gradient pattern. A well timed wave could bring a moderate snow event. Op and ens guidance have been hinting for this timeframe.

Hell of a front. Then back into the 60s by the 15th. Just an op run at range but looks like some volatility in the longwave pattern the first couple weeks of Feb. Buckle up. Probably a chance or 2 of frozen in there.