CAPE
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The 12th looks great- for PA northward
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GFS is just so unsteady compared to the Euro. Entertainment value anyway.
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We all waiting on the 12th..
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The GFS will ultimately cave, or its going to bust. Northern MD has a shot at some front end frozen and maybe some minor ZR before flipping to rain.
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I'm 100% confident an inch+ of snow isn't going to fall here. GFS is off its rocker lol. Most interesting aspect with this event is the potential for another half inch of rain after a few mangled flakes and 10 mins of sleet. Denting the drought.
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The overall signal for a winter storm in that timeframe has been notable to strong on the means for a few days. Impressive.
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Now that's some HL blocking right there
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h5 avocado with Barney at the surface
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Euro with an insane h5 look at the end of the run
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I guess the QBO phase is the one element that doesnt align, but the amount of impact it actually has always seemed a little nebulous to me.
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Strongest upper divergence north of the MJO convection. Euro has the wave propagating eastward so an extended jet core makes sense.
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well yeah- look at that +PNA!
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Yeah this look is probably a little too soon. Hopefully we get there. That is a pretty nice track though.
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The second one looks like a cold Miller A storm that takes a classic track.
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10 days out. Hopefully the trend is a little colder and souther, and not the other direction.
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The strongest signal for a MA winter storm has been around the 12th across ens guidance, and that went up a notch on the 0z runs. Surface depiction on the EPS. GEFS looks similar.
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I'll check with Chuck.. All the teleconnections of interest are negative there, including the PNA lol. Chuck should be happy.
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18z GEFS continues to suggest a storm around the 12th might be our first best shot, as most other ens guidance does.
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HH GFS sure was active.. we need a Ji disaster post up in here. JK.
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I don't think many are expecting the magnitude of cold we just experienced- or at least I hope not. It isn't likely to happen. Good news is we don't need that. February likes to snow on us, and the pattern being depicted around mid month and going forward could certainly produce a MA winter storm. Whether it actually does or not is another story.
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Not necessarily, and split flow patterns tend to be more difficult for models to resolve in general. Most other guidance is more in line with the Euro.
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They loving the GFS lol.
