CAPE

There was a -NAO but It wasn't really a true block as it lacked the lower heights in the 50-50 region. There was a TPV underneath for a time, but it shifted west and dumped into the western trough. Then the whole avocado came south and we had the big cutter around Christmas with Arctic cold behind. Another missed opportunity that can largely attributed to the state of the shitty Pacific, and the pattern broke down a few days later. We have been stuck in this garbage pattern since.

Shouldn't be any cutters with this look. Our primary fail mode risk would shift to that thing Ralph fears. There is still an indication of a coastal low around the 11th, but just offshore this run.

Disaster!! This is the post I expected from Ji.

Ji the optimist lol. I suppose if every run going forward made a similar adjustment maybe Leesburg would get some front end frozen. Most likely just run to run noise though. The primary actually ends up tracking further NW this run.

It didn't. He might be looking at a single panel comparing the 2 runs wrt the secondary low. Sensible differences are zero.

With the advertised changes on the Pacific side, cold air in place, and a textbook -NAO, there shouldn't be a SER to suppress.

The former is not surprising and a good move. The latter- I still have my doubts.

Could be cold and dry as a promising wave gets crushed by an overwhelming 50-50 on steroids, followed by a warm up.

@vastateofmind Drinking a Flying Dog Family Drama. Not your typical Pilsner.

That is nice. The precip panel I posted above ends up like this. Here we go!

The difference is, assuming its real, the persistently awful Pacific reshuffles and finally the ridge morphs into something that could be helpful instead of a hindrance for snow in the MA.

We're all gonna do it again. You know it. This is the one!

Potential, and only 10 days away.

As advertised on the EPS the March 4th fail storm at least helps jack up the Block. Textbook -NAO dipole with closed h5 contours.

GEFS in the LR is advertising a -EPO/WPO driven pattern with AO/NAO around neutral and a neutral PNA. That would bring some cold.

Maybe. At least as advertised there is cold in place with some actual High pressure up north.

It's possible, but not wasting time on a 372 hour op run.

Not worthy of any analysis lol.

locked in.

About right if the EPS has a clue.

Yeah the Canadian and the CFS fwiw are more like the EPS. Maybe Judah can enlighten us on the likelihood of a quick SPV rebound.

The h5 look on the EPS is much better than the GEFS for that period.

The thermal boundary being displaced to our northwest has been the core issue with the pattern since at least the beginning of Jan.. I see the difference in the advertised look here and ofc that is a more favorable h5 pattern, but we have seen model simulations depicting this general progression on the LR means/extended products previously, and it doesn't verify/reverts back to the same general unfavorable look- Aleutian ridge/western trough/SER. I know because I have been one of the optimistic ones posting those 'improved' LR looks the last couple months lol. This time it might be more believable, as the Nina continues to weaken and we head towards Spring.

I am all into the idea of the Chuck/Hail Mary period. I'll take mid March snow. Snow anytime is good. But climo gets progressively more hostile for snow especially in the lowlands mid-late March. Would be nice to see that look move up in time for once. The Nina is decaying, so we should see some changes with the position /strength/orientation of the Aleutian ridge.

At this juncture, I have my doubts. We have seen this look a lot on guidance over recent weeks, and we never get there. Maybe by early April.