CAPE
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I suppose we should discuss this here. Probably not thread worthy. A lot to overcome to see anything appreciable- fast flow, relatively weak forcing, very dry air in place, and marginal temps. Would need enough lift to overcome the dry air and then get a period of moderate precip to fall to cool the surface.
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Setting up for our mid month Hail Mary event.
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Looking ahead on the GEFS the -NAO weakens some but there is an improvement on the Pacific side with the EPO/WPO trending negative. Mean trough position shifting eastward. Colder look. Good trade-off if real imo.
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This gives an idea of the spread among the members wrt timing and location of low pressure. The mean looks like a lead wave and the a follow up wave, but that is probably not the way it will go. Overall the period still has potential but a ways to go before we can know.
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0z EPS has a pretty clear signal for primary low pressure tracking to our NW, with hints of secondary coastal development for the early March deal. Still plenty of spread. 0z GEFS also indicative of spread among the members for the early March window. Appears to be at least 2 camps with some timing and track differences and/or a lead low tracking NW and then a trailing low. I don't have time to look at the individual members and probably not worth the effort anyway. Still pretty far out.
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Oh I am sure there was a random op run or 2 where that was the case. In addition to tracking to Cleveland, Minneapolis, and Savannah Georgia.
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18z GEFS is meh. Signal for a NW track on the mean is pretty strong. A step back from 12z, but still way out there. Look at the changes we are seeing for the 28th the last couple runs. Long way to go. The BASE STATE is Pacific suckage. That isn't going to change anytime soon.
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The Nina needs to continue to decay. That will shift the location of the persistent +height anomalies in the Pacific, and thus the location of the downstream trough and eastern ridge. We need a longwave pattern phase shift, and it probably wont happen in a major way until our climo goes to crap in the Spring. Good news is these features never stay fixed in one location. A few tweaks on the Pacific side with a favorable NA, in conjunction with shorter wavelengths as we approach Spring can get it done.
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The MJO is probably never gonna get "there" as long as we are in a Nina. Even in a decaying Nina, by the time the atmosphere responds it will be March 27th or something. Best to stop looking at it.
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Coastal redevelopment quite a bit souther on the 18z GEFS for the 28th event. Big improvement and great track for SNE. Maybe the trend continues? Sometimes models don't quite 'see' the block at range. P sure that one is in the weenie handbook.
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Yeah lets wait and see what the GEFS has. Last 2 ens runs were pretty similar.
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Cocktail cherry dummy.
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Not a bad run. Key features just a little off from 12z run, specifically the timing/location/strength of the vortices underneath the developing NAO ridge. Less confluence and weaker surface HP in eastern Canada as the low approaches.
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Nice trend south for the 28th for SNE. Crush job.
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120 is it. 17%+ abv and the big malty/slightly sweet backbone is pretty effin good.
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First things first- this weekend still looks decent for a bit of frozen for lower S MD/lower eastern shore. Maybe a coating to an inch.
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Eh, dry slotted here. Ended up with half a storm. Still the biggest event since 2010.
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Fuck, I am on to a 120 now. This better not cut.
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'Bad Pacific' in this case refers to the massive Aleutian blocking ridge. That places a deep trough digging southward along the west coast- so they have the moisture source plus the cold draining from western Canada. And yes it's the higher elevations that get the snow, but in this pattern even places that don't normally see frozen can also get in on the action a bit.
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I am getting set for the epic HH run (lol). First up- a quick and dirty Old Fashioned in a frosted glass.
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There are all sorts of issues with that period, mostly all a result of the bad pacific. I could go through the list, but I won't. If we are going to get a late win in this shitty winter it is going to have to come in a pattern with plenty of warts. A +PNA may materialize- maybe mid to late month? Or surely by early April. So yeah, you can forget that dream the way things look now lol.
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Yep. It has been trending better, but as we know it usually goes the other way at some point.
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The h5 look is somewhat improved on the 12z GEFS for that period, with a broader trough/the eastern ridge is flatter and more offshore. More conducive to a low track over or just to our SE vs. cutting west. This might be as good as it gets this winter.
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The majority of the 12z GEFS members have LP tracking to our NW, with some of those suggesting secondary development or some sort of trailing wave. A few members just have a low tracking to our south. The signal for frozen for our region in the March 3-5 window is about the same as the 6z run. 1-2 inches east of the western Highlands.
