CAPE

I said from the beginning the Ravens were smart to use the transition tag, so Lamar would see what the true market was. No team was ever going to give up 2 number ones and give him a fully guaranteed contract, just because the Browns were dumb and desperate enough to do so with Watson. The Ravens offer back in Sept was comparable to the Hurts deal. They just tweaked it a bit to make Lamar a slightly better deal than Hurts.

The rumors and speculation of the last few days turned out to have merit. Nice. Now go make a deal for Hopkins tonight.

45 with some light showers.

Fun to watch. They find ways to win. Very resourceful. They could use a pitcher or 2, but they have some young arms that are flashing. It will be interesting to see where they are heading towards the trade deadline. This could be the year to buy.

6 in a row for the Os. Wild finish today.

It's much easier to pull weeds when there is some actual moisture in the soil.

The latest ens runs are in pretty good agreement in bringing rain into the region Friday/Sat associated with the low tracking across the south, then another chance the following Monday as upper level energy digs SE into the upper midwest. Sort of stalls over the GLs with additional energy dropping in underneath. Looks Miller B-ish on the GFS.

1.28" total here.

Up to 0.86". Might just make an inch.

Still going strong with round 1 here. Beneficial (mostly moderate) rain falling. 0.55" so far.

Most of the heavy stuff skipped over me too. Just hoping the light to moderate post frontal rain can get me close to three quarters of an inch. 0.37" so far.

You are definitely one of the few 'haves' in this area lol. Just gimmie a damn half inch.

Nothing even approaching severe here, but that's fine with me. Solid moderate to at times heavy rain, with some garden variety T&L. Temp down to 59. 0.27" so far.

Yes it's not easy to find, so a trip to slower lower is probably in order. It was gone in a few days. Nothing like that ever gets to age once in my possession.

Just cleaned all the pollen goo out of mine ahead of the rain. Want to make sure my .25 is legit.

Temp dropped 10 degrees with the outflow ahead of the main line. Down to 65. Winds gusting, but nothing severe. Rain on the doorstep.

If not late this week then perhaps next weekend for a coastal low. Would be cool to see a chilly soaking rain with some wind.

Pretty interesting sounding on the 3km NAM for the central eastern shore(around Denton) as the depicted line is approaching. A general clockwise curve on the hodograph in the lower/mid levels.. decent 0-3km SRH. Modest chance for a tornado? Dry air aloft/ respectable DCAPE suggests a chance for stronger winds to mix down.

Snippet from Mount Holly AFD- The model forecast soundings indicate low instability, generally under 1000 J/kg, however there is near 40 knots of effective shear. This is looking like a mid/high shear and lower CAPE setup. The timing of the convective band would be when the instability is maximized though. The strong forcing for ascent that arrives early this evening with the cold front may compensate for the lower instability. As a result, there is some risk of a few strong to severe thunderstorms with locally strong/damaging wind gusts the main threat especially with a low-level jet of around 40 knots. Overnight guidance continues to hint at surface flow backing a bit as the line of storms approaches. This would increase the low- level helicity or spin. In addition to increased helicity, model soundings show low-level 0-1 km shear around 20-25 kt. This could result in a potential tornado or two developing as these storms move through. The greatest risk overall looks to be in Delmarva and SE PA, with slightly lower chances elsewhere. Given the instability forecast to be on the lower side, convection should tend to be lower topped with a linear mode given deep south to southwest flow.

Slight risk for much of the eastern half of our region. SPC disco excerpt- ...Mid Atlantic/Northeast southward into the Carolinas... An extensive band of convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from the southern Appalachians into the lower Great Lakes region. Modest diurnal heating ahead of this band will result in some destabilization. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg is expected to develop from southeast VA into parts of the Carolinas, decreasing with northward extent to less than 500 J/kg across northern portions of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Meridional mid/upper-level flow will likely result in messy convective mode, with a mixture of clusters, bowing segments, and possibly a few embedded supercells possible. For the Delmarva area and northward, locally damaging gusts will likely be the primary threat, though backed surface winds and increasing low-level shear/SRH may support a tornado or two as well. From the Tidewater region into portions of the Carolinas, stronger instability will support a greater hail threat, in addition to a risk of locally damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes. At least the southern portion of the Slight Risk area may also see multiple rounds of storms, with prefrontal convection through midday and robust redevelopment along the cold front possible by mid/late afternoon.

Late next week will be interesting. A bit of a split flow regime, and guidance will likely struggle with the ultimate outcome at range. Chance for a significant storm to develop along the SE coast.

Was probably 3 ft here on avg after the second storm, an all out blizzard. It was very difficult to measure with the intense wind. Maybe again, one day..

high of 84. anti-urban heat island here tho.