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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    Upstream is clearly important regardless of the strength/persistence of any NA blocking. More so these days. We torched last year during that blocking episode because of a SER induced by a deep US western trough, itself induced by an impressive Aleutian ridge, courtesy of La Nina.
  2. CAPE
    This would be a pretty good look at range (a month later) if it persisted over multiple ens runs.
  3. CAPE
    Probably. While the upper ridge in the NAO space is there on that run, it's impotent as advertised, and it will probably be completely gone at 0z. Let me see it persist over multiple runs and on the means. Sometimes we see heights rise in the NAO domain briefly, but need perfect timing with a wave. What I like to see- and is most useful esp in a Nino- is a sustained blocking pattern(dipole) where we just wait for a legit wave to track underneath. Also snow chances suck regardless because it is November.
  4. CAPE
    To me, it means not useful/ not a sustained atmospheric blocking pattern. A transient -NAO is a crapshoot at best for our purposes. An actual(and more useful) sustained negative NAO is difficult to identify from a random op run or 2. A true NA blocking pattern is usually something that becomes evident over multiple ens runs.
  5. CAPE
    Thought he was more semi-retired. He is a legend in local forecasting. There surely is work for him if/when he wants it. His contributions are always value adding.
  6. CAPE
    It's bootleg and couples with an amplifying anomalous eastern US upper ridge, as a deep trough digs out west. Same thing we saw multiple times last winter. Just another random GFS op run though.
  7. CAPE
    Sipping on a 2022 BCBS for HH. So nice.
  8. CAPE
    That's 40 days away. Not a chance in hell these extended products have a clue what the NAO domain will actually look like. More likely the Pacific will be somewhat close to reality- looks Nino-ish. That said, I agree with you. NA blocking hasn't produced much here lately. Cross polar flow with advancing cold and a well timed wave along the thermal boundary has.
  9. CAPE
    The article with numbers is posted in the November LR thread.
  10. CAPE
  11. CAPE
    I think maybe too much attention is paid to the SST anomalies in attempting to characterize ENSO events, instead of the actual temperatures. Look at where the highest SSTs are, and that aligns with the location of strongest forcing- albeit relatively weak.
  12. CAPE
    The NPAC gyre and associated currents affect the PDO and the (warm) SSTs near Japan, but understanding all the variables and intricacies is beyond the scope of my interest lol. I have other things to do.
  13. CAPE
    Continuing to see SSTs cool north of Hawaii, and also some increase in temps in Gulf of AK and along the US west coast. PDO appears to be trending towards positive.
  14. CAPE
    Maybe you have finally figured it out. I doubt it though. I predict many Ji "disaster" posts based on LR GFS op runs.
  15. CAPE
    6z GFS: Hi Nina
  16. CAPE
    We need some precip. Soil is parched. Blowing leaves kicks up a lot of dust. The farmers doing their Fall thing create ground level dust storms.
  17. CAPE
    Not sure about that, but it should be a little better than an inch or whatever fell there last winter lol.
  18. CAPE
    Yeah, let it be mild in Nov. Who cares. Only point I am making is the longwave pattern can look like crap in mid to late Nov in a developing Nino, and there is not much to be gleaned from that wrt the character of winter as a whole. I really don't expect this Dec to be anything like 2009, but it could be decent. My thinking is mid Jan through Feb will be the favorable period where we may get just enough cold with a more favorable HL look, in conjunction with an established STJ.
  19. CAPE
    Not saying this is how it will go, but this is where we are at h5 on the means roughly 10 days from now.. Compare it to around the same time Nov of 2009- And this is where the pattern ended up a few weeks later-
  20. CAPE
    The Roundy-Webb parrot will be right back at it when his daily post limit expires/renews at 1201am. Can't wait.
  21. CAPE
    High of 72 here, but temps dropped into the 60s mid/late afternoon with some clouds moving in. Currently 60.
  22. CAPE
    Not much of interest in the near term other than modest rain chances for some areas late this week and a chilly period late weekend into early next week. Outside chance eastern areas get brushed by a coastal storm off of NC early next week. Towards Thanksgiving there are hints of some change in the pattern, with a -EPO and a neutral/slightly positive PNA. AO and NAO look to remain somewhat positive. There is still a signal for a storm leading up to Thanksgiving. Still looks mild but might be our next best shot at some widespread rain across the region.
  23. CAPE
    They are who we thought they were. I would like to see Lamar with more TD passes, but when you can dominate on the ground like that, you eat clock and demoralize a defense.
  24. CAPE
    They are. And still without Williams, Bowser, and Ojabo lol.
  25. CAPE
    Ravens are so good at the UFA game.
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