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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    Always drink the water.
  2. CAPE
    What are we all drinking? Old fashioned mood here.
  3. CAPE
    2.13" here over the last 7 days. Big improvement over the prior 2-3 weeks.
  4. CAPE
    0.17" overnight. Mostly missed everything yesterday. Heard plenty of thunder. 0.93" since Sat, so no complaints.
  5. CAPE
    Lots of thunder here between the severe storm that passed SE and some new stuff developing just to the north/nw. Betwixt and between so far. No shelf shot, but got a pic of something to the north a bit ago.
  6. CAPE
    The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Talbot County in eastern Maryland... Caroline County in eastern Maryland... * Until 745 PM EDT. * At 659 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Oxford, or 8 miles southwest of Easton, moving east at 35 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR SOUTHERN TALBOT COUNTY!. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Mesonet. A Personal weather station measured a 84 mph wind gust on Tilghman Island. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely.
  7. CAPE
    Sounds intense from here. Lots of thunder.
  8. CAPE
  9. CAPE
    The 60 min is an excellent, very drinkable IPA. The 90 is a superior DIPA. The 120, well.. another level.
  10. CAPE
    The 120 is superior; not so sure about a storm.
  11. CAPE
    Those 2 supercells on the track to the south of DC look pretty impressive. Need some congealing into a linear line or else it will be pretty isolated.
  12. CAPE
    Was it any better in Cross Junction?
  13. CAPE
    Drinking a 120 and waiting for my storm.
  14. CAPE
    Latest AFD from Mount Holly on the threat for severe- For tonight, the main player is the main larger shortwave and smaller impulses of energy rotating around it. One weak embedded shortwave and vort-max is located over western West Virginia at present, heading northeastward toward us, while another is over northeastern Pennsylvania moving likewise. CAPE in the 1500-2000 J/kg range and shear of 20-30 kts will thus likely result in an early band of strong to severe storms over the northern areas this afternoon, followed by another band forming to our southwest and moving across the area this evening. This is why we have a northern watch extending only to 8PM in the north and until 10 PM further south. Some guidance, notably the CAMS, suggest a minimum of activity in the middle of the CWA, near the I-195/PA Turnpike corridors possibly up towards I-78. Don`t feel confident to put a gap in the watches, but if there is a minimum over the middle of the CWA, won`t be surprised. Main threat this evening is damaging winds with clusters and supercells producing winds of 60-70 mph. Some hail is also possible, and an isolated tornado can`t be ruled out, but overall the risk looks lower than it did for yesterday. We`ll also have to watch the flash flood threat, with any cells moving over the urban corridor having a decent potential for at least nuisance flooding, but right now storm motion looks like it will strong enough to preclude a flood watch.
  15. CAPE
    I want a good shot of a shelf. Been awhile. Decent chance this evening. In a local chasing mood.
  16. CAPE
    The worst of it passed just to the NE. Picked up a quick 0.15" with some good cracks of thunder.
  17. CAPE
    Warned storm here. Plenty of thunder and gusty winds but right on the edge of it. Nice downpour now.
  18. CAPE
    I'll take the 18z 3km NAM
  19. CAPE
    Luckily I have no terrain induced impacts here. Every place is basically sea level (or below ). If I were to move further inland I would specifically seek out the upslope areas of the western highlands. No way I could deal with the climo of the leeward valleys/rainshadows. Might as well just stay here lol.
  20. CAPE
    In a bit of a rut as a team for sure. Hopefully it's short lived. Acquiring a legit starter for the stretch would be really helpful in order to seriously contend for the division.
  21. CAPE
    Latest CFS runs are pretty weenie- more of a CP based Nino. Pretty nice h5 looks for late winter, similar to the new edition of CanSIPS. March.. back loaded winter of yore?
  22. CAPE
    Latest edition of the CanSIPS is suggesting an El Nino somewhat weaker than last run- more on the moderate side, still basin wide, and with strongest sst anomalies shifting westward through winter . H5 maps are less weenie than last run, but through all the coarseness of a seasonal model, still suggestive of an overall pattern typical of a Nino, and possibly quite favorable for the MA, esp late winter.
  23. CAPE
    82/68 Not awful here, but notably more humid. Dews should be on the increase overnight. Tomorrow looks downright sultry.
  24. CAPE
    Disco from Mount Holly on the rain threat for later today and tonight- The main focus for this evening and tonight will be the potential for convection. The greatest instability will be located across our western zones this afternoon and early evening. Guidance indicates this will spread east into tonight as the aforementioned height falls and shortwaves begin streaming into the area. Guidance, including the CAMs, are notoriously poor at accurately modeling these types of subtly forced nocturnal convective regimes. If you need any proof, have a look at the past several days upstream across the central CONUS. Thus predictability and confidence in the details of the convection for tonight is low. Fortunately we do have some synoptic clues to help us out. As of now, it appears the greatest potential for convection will begin ramping up in our western zones around 4-6 PM or so, with increasing chances of convection spreading gradually eastward by the 8 PM to 12 AM time frame. The greatest height falls and instability appear to be during the 12-4 AM time frame, thus this is when PoPs with this forecast package are the greatest in the likely range. As one may guess, the PoPs will likely need to be adjusted in future updates as confidence in the details of timing and coverage of convection increase.
  25. CAPE
    Looked like this would be a quick hitting shower then clear out, but additional cells formed behind the initial line. Ended up getting a decent little soaking with a few torrential downpours. 0.57" Wasn't expecting anything with only a slight chance of showers in the forecast for today. Yardwork on hold.
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