CAPE

How about realistic expectations? Try that.

Expectations play a big role in this for sure. Mine are modest. Only takes 20" here for above avg, and I hit that back in Jan 2022.

2014? 15? Dude you need to get over your WAR phobia lol. Not like its some damn Bermuda high parked out there.

This pattern might not be exactly what we wanted/expected heading into mid Jan, but there is a mechanism for cold air delivery which is NUMBER ONE if you want snow. Because we are in a Nino, we have an active southward displaced Jetstream, bring disturbances eastward along the flow within it. There is cold enough air at the surface as advertised, and the thermal boundary is in the vicinity and will surely be southward enough periodically for well timed waves to give us chances. The -NAO would help facilitate that despite the less than ideal Pacific. That's what I see anyway.

Thanks Chuck.

Maybe those 'saying its ok' fully realize the advertised look is not what we ideally want to see, but also recognize that if that that's hand we are dealt we have a couple choices- find something else to do, or continue to look for chances within that pattern. We have managed to snow in non-ideal longwave patterns you don't approve of in recent winters, and many here are happy with any snow at all, and don't have your high standards of 40"+ per season and KUs in every Nino. In this area we suck at snow in general, and its likely not getting any better going forward. Maybe you need to adjust a bit.

Congrats if that's what you deciphered out of that word salad lol. Highly subjective I guess.

I think we used to do this? Or tried it. Problem is people still end up posting in the wrong thread due to confusion of what belongs where. I like the idea, but I think it probably becomes a headache to moderate, constantly having to move posts.

If that's what he actually said I might agree. I mean, that's literally what I said the issue was. WTF you smokin?

Y'all heard it. The 7th is a no go. Find something else to do.

Okay Chuck

Not far off. Pretty favorable look. A bit more spacing relative to the (would be) 50-50 low/a bit less confluence underneath of it might do the trick.

Not really close no.

HH GFS time... The possible 'event' for the 4th is out of sync in the upper level as the NS vorticity is on top of/behind the southern wave(no phase until way offshore). The orientation of the trough is positively tilted as it passes overhead. That one may be dead at this point without significant changes in timing.

Different reasons. TPV lobe position is spinning off energy in this case. What we need is a legit NA block with a quasi-stationary 50-50 low. That would lock HP in SE Canada where we want it.

Not a torch, but that low tracking over the GLs doesn't help the low/mid levels. Op run 8 days out so who cares.

What period are you referring to? And what pattern am I rooting for?

In my neck of the woods this is the type of setup that has worked pretty well multiple times in recent winters. A well timed healthy wave tracking along the boundary for a moderate snow event. And let me be clear- IDGAF about a KU.

The 7th looks cold enough. The 10th has been problematic due the the NS energy and likelihood of a primary OV/GL low. If that tracks NW ofc we are going to warm for a couple days. Anyway back to the 7th- The primary issue on the 12z run is the track is a bit further SE. Nice problem to have at this juncture imo.

Look at the surface. It's cold. The 'warm up' is around the 9th-10th on the GEPS verbatim, then colder air pushes eastward. Almost the entire country is below avg on that panel.

I think the idea was if the pattern went in that direction it would lock in for awhile, and not necessarily ever get to the more typical late winter Nino pattern. There are elements with this Nino that are different than previous strong events, and throw in the possibility of SSW event, could be some curveballs down the road.

He did say he didn't buy the GEFS look. Ofc he then proceeded to make multiple posts describing what he thought the result would be if it went down that way, driving weenies to the ledge.

GEFS correcting towards the EPS/GEPS in the LR.

A bit of an improved look on the 6z GEFS for the 7th. More consolidated low position just off the NC coast, similar to the EPS.

It's not a good look, but sometimes we put too much emphasis on smoothed ens snapshots of the longwave pattern and seemingly assume it remains stationary. 'Game over' is a bit hyperbolic. Even that composite h5 anomaly, which is a 'bad' overall look, is somewhat misleading as some of those winters(2017, 18, 22) featured enough of a shift in the pattern at times to produce cold periods with one or more big snowstorms for the MA and NE. Some winters we end up with consistently 'good' patterns that produce little to nothing. Ultimately our snow chances always require good wave timing in conjunction with cold air.