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It seems pretty likely that the most notable initial improvement in the longwave pattern will be the NE Pac low retrograding towards the Aleutians, with the flat central Canada ridge 'morphing' into an EPO ridge. All the ens means depict this evolution. That's a favorable shift and a colder look for the eastern US. There are also hints of improvement in the NA, esp on some of the Op runs, but it may be closer to mid January before we see something more than a transient -NAO. This aligns with most of the winter forecasts, and also what the extended tools have been depicting. The forum mood graph should indicate we are on the increasing slope of the sine wave and approaching peak.
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There is an indication of a following wave on the mean (similar to the 6z GFS op), and given the improving look up top there might be some colder air to work with for early January.
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Still seeing consistent indications on the ens means for a coastal storm in the 27-29th window. Last 2 runs of the GEFS have a pretty decent signal for frozen in the MA, esp inland with temps expected to be marginal.
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If the weeklies/extended products have the right idea, we should see some classic setups like that moving forward.
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This is the surface that goes with the h5 panel I posted above. That's a hell of nice a look up top with a strong wave tracking eastward.
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There have been incremental improvements there on the means over the last several runs, more so on the EPS and GEPS. That allows heights to build northward over AK. (-EPO). With hints of improvement in the NA towards D15, perhaps we are starting to see the beginnings of the overall favorable h5 looks the extended products have been advertising.
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^At the end of the 0z EPS run you can see the lower heights in the 50-50 region. Looks like there will be at least 2 storms tracking NE across the area the last week of the month, and even if they are just rainstorms here, as those mature lows track NE they end up contributing to building heights into the NAO domain. This process can be clearly seen on the 6z GFS.
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Emotions are irrelevant in this here thread. Take it to the thread of Panic.
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Flood watch here with 2-3" expected. Ground already pretty saturated. Oh joy.
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You do realize that is the mean of 30 individual members... no, probably not.
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Seeing a bit more retrogression of the PAC trough towards the Aleutians at the end of the GEFS run. Allows an EPO ridge to build poleward.
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Yeah that could work, and its gonna take good timing with not much help in the NA. Any HP induced over southern Canada will be on the move.
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12z GEFS has a better track for the late month potential storm- across the southern states and up off the NC coast, more like the 0z EPS.
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The narrative will change to 'we told you most of the country would see above average temps'.
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It's not there on the GEFS, and the track looks too far N/inland. EPS suggests a track right along/off the coast with HP to the NW, LP over Atlantic Canada. Surface temps are colder. Long way out so plenty can change but we are gonna need some cold for this not to be just another rain event.
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Yeah a few runs in a row now. A lot would have to go right timing wise with no help in the NA, esp for the lowlands, but something to keep an eye on.
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EPS has a better(colder) look for that window than the GEFS/GEPS, with a more amplified ridge shifted further west vs a flattish central Canada ridge.
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The bigger problem is it's too close on the heels of our juicy rainstorm. Notice there isn't any notable surface low development on the GFS. It would take a big dig by a sharp shortwave to get it done.
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A couple issues with that trailing shortwave- it's more of a vorticity lobe than a sharp shortwave, and there is a lack of moisture feeding in ahead of it with dry air also advecting in from the NW. Maybe some snow/rain showers but an organized storm looks like an outside chance imo.
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The extended products still suggest the NE PAC trough retros back over the Aleutians with an EPO ridge for early Jan, but they have been doing that for awhile now. There are also hints of improvement in the NA. My guess is we will see general improvement in the Pacific over the next couple weeks, and increasing chances of -NAO episodes mid Jan forward.
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End of the EPS showing some improvement in the HL with the AO and EPO around neutral along with a +PNA. NA needs work but that is a serviceable look and might get some colder air working southward into central Canada with time.
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I think we agree, we will see -NAO episodes but probably not sustained(nothing like 2009-10), and more of the character of 2016- although hopefully sooner and a bit more frequent in late winter.
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He is a troll, and a perpetual dick. Well duh. An extended Pac jet, with an equatorward shift, is a hallmark of an El Nino. Ofc he makes posts like this to claim a torch is imminent. Jet extensions with an exit region closer to the US west coast also happen to favor a +PNA, but more so when the jet is shifted poleward. So an El Nino winter can feature both periods of +/-PNA, or be predominantly one phase or another in a given season depending on the exact character/strength of the event. The strength and position of the NE PAC vortex determines to a large extent how much cold air is available in Canada/US during a Nino, and so other factors such as AO/NAO phase are paramount in determining whether or not we have a colder/snowy outcome. But yes, let's make it all about the NPJ, which is an ever present influence on the downstream pattern, regardless of ENSO state, especially during the winter.
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That's a decent look, not awful by any means. +PNA, but the AO/NAO/EPO are all positive. What's most important is where the pattern goes from there.
