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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    We rarely see wall to wall cold in Dec in these parts regardless of Enso state.
  2. CAPE
    Yeah latest GEFS has it progressing through phase 2 at low amplitude, then into phase 3 but pretty weak. Other guidance has it weaker and then into the COD before progressing into phase 3. We shall see. Probably will have a mild period in December regardless, and the state of the SPV going forward is a wildcard.
  3. CAPE
    The latest extended products depict the continuation of a respectable to favorable longwave pattern into Dec. Both the Euro weeklies and GEFS ext maintain the same general h5 look, with normal to below normal temps for eastern US the entire month verbatim. Certainly no suggestion of a hostile pattern or a 2 week+ torch. Mid to late month actually looks the best on both, a pretty classic Nino look with lower heights across the south/southeast US (fwiw).
  4. CAPE
    Sure does. And the pattern reloading at the end of the run. The SPV becomes quite perturbed on the GFS beginning next week, so this is likely influencing what is being depicted at h5.
  5. CAPE
    That's not some random, poorly timed GL low messing up our mid levels. That is a piece of TPV energy dropping southward as it gets pinched off with the amplifying ridge out west. The pattern is just evolving at this point. That TPV lobe(or multiple pieces) phasing with/deepening the existing trough near the Canadian maritimes is what sets up any potential NA blocking heading into the last week of the month. Imo that period probably offers the better potential for snow chances east of the mountains as the pattern will be more established with a colder air mass more entrenched.
  6. CAPE
    Op run I know but this is only a week or so out. Look at the amplitude of that EPO ridge. All sorts of wave interaction/wave breaking going on. Another TPV vorticity lobe gets pinched off the under the anticyclonic wave break and drops south.
  7. CAPE
    A red pepper bridge with avocado underneath. Looks like a cold Thanksgiving.
  8. CAPE
    Verbatim places NW of the Fall line see a little snow. A coating to as much as 2" in the northern hills of Carroll County.
  9. CAPE
    Winter may be saved!
  10. CAPE
    Mount PSU special on the 18z GFS for next week. A couple inches.
  11. CAPE
    It has mostly been popping on the GFS, and the GEFS has been more emphatic the last couple runs. EPS has been hinting though.
  12. CAPE
    Yeah as of now its mostly been the GEFS on the ens guidance, outside of something very transient. That's a pretty nice dipole right there. The deep vortex retrogrades westward before weakening, and the next one is moving N to reinforce the +heights over GL. Like you said, it wouldn't likely be a sustained blocking pattern, but still can work with a bit of timing.
  13. CAPE
    That area and esp further west would be favored for frozen with the depicted pattern and being so early in the season. Fighting climo in the lowlands.
  14. CAPE
    Storms can still cut, esp early in the season. I get your point though. Big difference with the features in the NPAC.
  15. CAPE
    GFS delivers back to back snow events for places just to our N/NW. Crazy op run 300+ hours out. Have to continue to watch this period on the ens guidance.
  16. CAPE
    They have been 'seeing' that for multiple runs now. The looks in the NA on some recent runs are interesting.
  17. CAPE
    Pretty wild look on the 12z GFS. This becoming our first legit 'period of interest'?
  18. CAPE
    Heavy leaf drop warning in effect. Just pouring leaves now with this wind.
  19. CAPE
    Here we go
  20. CAPE
    It was interesting that you brought it up in sort of a negative context, given the ens guidance has been depicting a pretty favorable h5 pattern towards the end of the month, and there have been plenty of good vibe posts made wrt that over the past few days.
  21. CAPE
    ..and save winter for the greater DC area
  22. CAPE
    Low of 34 but temp has risen in the early morning hours. 39 now.
  23. CAPE
    Interesting look on the 0z GEFS. Hint of a wave coming eastward in the southern stream with cold in place. Nice look up top- even has a bit of a -NAO. Verbatim there is a little snow across the region on the mean just beyond this timeframe.
  24. CAPE
    There is always some variability in a longwave pattern, even one that seems to be locked in phase. Two winters ago we saw this in Jan after an apparently hopeless 'close the blinds pattern' 2 weeks earlier. The broad Aleutian ridge from hell(typical Nina) amped and shifted east(-EPO), bringing the cold and baroclinic boundary southward, and part of our region saw 3 snowstorms. In that particular case, 2 of the lows were a bit late developing/offshore for NW areas. Way too early to be concerned about the details though. The general looks we are currently seeing on guidance on the Pac side are pretty damn good.
  25. CAPE
    Glad my area can still get good snow following nothing significant in Nov/ Dec. What a curse lol. Maybe a case of too much analytics? Professional sports could use a little less of that too.
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