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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    Took this at Tuckahoe yesterday.
  2. CAPE
    A couple shots from Kent Narrows.
  3. CAPE
    I agree. The cold is very dependent on the NS wave train as vortices in the flow move through the 50-50 region. We don't have a typical NAO Rex block with a quasi-stationary/closed (50-50) low underneath a poleward ridge, so the confluence is fleeting.
  4. CAPE
    Snow maps galore. 50 miles east or west or north or south. A week out lol. Back to the other thread. I would rather talk to myself.
  5. CAPE
    12z EPS has the same general idea as the op with this 'frontrunning' midwestern wave Friday into early Sat- Then here later with energy ejecting from the SW. They don't play well together like the op. That said there is some precip for our area on the mean. Still a week out and given the likely errors with wave timing at this point, it will evolve/morph into something else.
  6. CAPE
    We are relying on the NA, but there isn't really a true block to slow the flow, so timing really is critical with these features.
  7. CAPE
    Yeah the GEFS. EPS comes out slow on WB, but the 6z EPS was even better than the GEFS- had a bit of a suppressed look which I will take at this range.
  8. CAPE
    Gonna be a cutter on the 12z ens mean. Was more of a Miller B at 6z.
  9. CAPE
    Pretty good synopsis.
  10. CAPE
    Good look on the 12z GEFS leading into the potential weekend storm. Energy in the 50-50 region is in a good spot with surface HP underneath in the convergence/confluence zone. Energy is ejecting from the southwest with surface low development.
  11. CAPE
    There is now another winter thread you can post in that is free of pettiness and drama.
  12. CAPE
    Wasted cold though. No refresher snow the whole time we have had the glacier, with only a couple days a few degrees above freezing.
  13. CAPE
    Yes. I hit on some of that in my intro post. As you said, that 50-50 low is vital for this to work out, but we don't want it displaced too far south as has been depicted on some recent op runs. Weakens/suppresses the shortwave southward without enough space.
  14. CAPE
    Favorable upper levels and surface leading into the next weekend potential. Need to keep an eye on wave spacing, any minor wave(s) moving east in the flow midweek vs the bulk of the energy being ejected from the southwest later, and the strength/ position of NS energy near the 50-50 region. Good surface and upper level depiction leading into a potential winter storm-
  15. CAPE
    Lets discuss upcoming potential storm threats. No pissing and moaning, emotional pendulums, and no snow maps until guidance converges on a clear, specific storm threat within 7 days. Hopefully mods won't mind moving noncompliant posts to the appropriate threads. @psuhoffman @WxUSAF @MillvilleWx @brooklynwx99
  16. CAPE
    20 when I woke up, now 17. That wind is biting.
  17. CAPE
    That and gumballs here. Snow/ice pack is getting dirtier.
  18. CAPE
    Yes, as if anything has been lost in an event that may or may not come to fruition at some point in the future.
  19. CAPE
    I wake up, get a coffee and venture into the LR thread.. snow maps galore lol. Ofc.
  20. CAPE
    Nada here. Just cold and windy. Per radar looked like Dover area got hit pretty good, as @JakkelWx described.
  21. CAPE
    I like the advertised surface look leading in with HP over the GLs into SE Canada and low pressure off the Maritimes. No real block though so everything is on the move.
  22. CAPE
    For the upcoming weekend threat, the majority of the members on the GEFS have a low tracking into the OV, then coastal transfer- but exactly where is a crapshoot. Some right over us, some further north, some along the NC coast. Plenty of spread. All the snow maps tell you at this point is that it is possible for it to snow somewhere in the region. Mixed bag on the EPS but a low moving across the south and off the SE coast is most prominent.
  23. CAPE
    Nah just need to be willing to enthusiastically discuss the upper levels(where it all happens), rather than focusing on the surface, as if it all happens there.. and geeking out/freaking out over run to run snow maps 10 days out.
  24. CAPE
    Still exist? We could morph that into our members only techie thread. Weenies can read only.
  25. CAPE
    Spacing!!
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