Jump to content

CAPE

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    35,880

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    I just had a blast outside with the gas leaf blower blowing gumballs off the glacier and into the woods. Easy work now rather than waiting for the snow to go. They glide right across easily. Was fun as fuck actually. Stayed on top the whole time. Like being someplace else in the world when out there. Took a few measurements and pretty much everywhere there is still 5 inches of stuff otg, some places a bit more. Even with the cold, pure snow would not have survived 2 weeks without significant meltage.
  2. CAPE
    Long way to go. Quite a spread as expected. Could easily see a track just off the coast.
  3. CAPE
    Nah. All whingy posts would be hidden, and the snow maps...
  4. CAPE
    All we need is the surface low to exit the coast at Norfolk instead of tracking over the mouth of the bay to OC. Not a big ask. See what Chuck thinks.
  5. CAPE
    Also had snow otg for 2 weeks(more melting than this winter tho) and 2 significant all snow events here- both in the 6-9" range. Think I ended up right about average for here (18") or a bit under. This winter has been much colder and and still a bit under 12" at this point. Just gimmie one 6" snow event even if its gone 12 hours later.
  6. CAPE
    Make me a mod for that thread only and I'll take care of it.
  7. CAPE
    If its still possible, this winter would be the one to make it happen. Cold has overwhelmed for 2 weeks and its been bone dry, so just maybe we can get something to work with some actual mositure and modest cold?
  8. CAPE
    Once I have had a couple bourbons I might pop in. I mainly just wanted a thread to escape all that shit. Takes the fun out of it weeding through all the meltdowns and entire pages of day 10 snow maps posted multiple times.
  9. CAPE
  10. CAPE
    Yes and much different than 6z when the primary went to Cleveland and the secondary formed over NJ.
  11. CAPE
    GEFS looks similar with the NS energy from the Midwest moving southeastward to reinforce the confluence.
  12. CAPE
    So much of what ultimately occurs hinges on wave timing. Its always the case but especially with a busy NS and lacking a true NAO block. It all works out pretty nicely on this run.
  13. CAPE
    Correct. All are welcome, just want it free of complaining and emotional breakdowns after every run that has an undesirable outcome. Drama free, and no random posts of maps without explanation. No snow maps until guidance agrees on a storm.
  14. CAPE
    12z GFS pretty much does it. A significant and sharp shortwave, coastal low, facilitated by the Central Canada/Hudson ridge and well timed 50-50 with surface HP where we need it. Just like the old days where this setup could snow in the MA.
  15. CAPE
    Agreed. Only chance here is something like the EPS has but in that case the low is weaker and there still isn't enough cold. Might be a rain snow mix/snow tv. Would need an ideal track and a more significant low.
  16. CAPE
    Recent cycles have ejected significant energy and the outcome in those cases has been a low cutting west/ Miller B. 6z GFS does the latter, but the coastal gets going at our latitude. Still a range of possibilities imo. Timing with energy moving into/through the 50-50 region is also going to be a key factor in the outcome. Everything is on the move.
  17. CAPE
    0z EPS- The primary energy ejecting from the SW does pop a low along the Gulf coast and moves off the NC coast. It gets some precip into the MA on the mean. Cold looks marginal but interior areas at elevation might be in a good spot should precip make it there. Just beyond that it looks mild with a temporary ridge over the east. Then we shall see about the potential around the 20th or so.
  18. CAPE
    There is a drama free thread where we discuss the nuts and bolts of the pattern and possible outcomes, with no judgment or emotional silliness.
  19. CAPE
    Love their early stuff, esp this one.
  20. CAPE
    And other rational, smart people who choose to join in. But I'm good talking to myself lol.
  21. CAPE
    Temp has been around 17 since early this morning. Was 20 at 6am. The high temp is probably 30 which occurred just after midnight prior to the Arctic front.
  22. CAPE
    18z GFS crushes the initial wave as the NS vortex digs too far south and exits, then the unfavorable Pacific takes over. The HP from the initial NS confluence exits stage right with no NA blocking, and the result its a cutter with mostly rain. Just one of many possible outcomes. Only a week to go!
  23. CAPE
    Glad to see the forecast of 55-60 mph winds hasn't verified. Not even close by my estimation. Maybe 40-45? eta: just checked Ridgely Mesonet- Max gust 45.7 mph
  24. CAPE
    Usually get some great snow devils here with all the wide open fields, but the glacier with no additional snow on top prevents that. Also prevents the blowing and drifting from making a continuous mess of the roads.
  25. CAPE
    Its Miller B-ish. Would like to see the secondary further south, but ofc we have an eternity for the models to correct their errors.
×
×
  • Create New...