CAPE
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Still cant rule out the potential for something towards the end of the month/early Jan with looks like this continuing to pop up on guidance. The wave doesnt dig quite enough this run, but even with a hostile Pacific, a legit NAO block can change the game and give us a shot. Just cant know yet lol.
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Latest Euro weeklies continue to depict a shift from -WPO/+EPO to a -EPO heading into mid Jan, with a pretty decent NA look. The pattern becomes pretty respectable prior to that. Western US trough not as deep with a flattish PNA ridge developing by the 10th.
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Snowman19 lol That thread is a train wreck. Gloom and doom. No recovering from this upcoming pattern! Days getting longer in 2 days. Summer is coming!!
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Looks like low 50s for Xmas. Probably 60 or so the day after. Is what it is. Not hating it tbh.
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This what we need, and exactly what Elias needed to do. STOP coveting every damn prospect and start dealing to make this team better now. The window is going to close fast with some of the core talent approaching FA, and Boros being the agent for Henderson and Westburg. Holiday too but that's further down the road.
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Judah so smart. Although I'm not sure why I should care so much what's going on at 10 mb when the AO is trending slightly negative at this point on the same model.
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It's called drivel.
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Ended up with 1.34" Might add to it with the passing showers over the next few hours. Thunder would be cool.
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Overperformer here. 1.2" Looks like it should be ending soon.
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Heavy rain here this morning. 0.92" and still going.
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All the extended products have been indicating a transition to a -EPO going forward into mid Jan, with a southward displaced TPV. We have seen this look pretty often in recent winters and it brings the cold, then all we need is some luck with a wave riding the thermal boundary. This pattern has produced several moderate snowstorms in our region. I'll take it.
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My WAG is ENSO neutral winters in general don't feature a predictable influence on the Pac side so the pattern is less predictable than in a Nina or Nino, and other factors tend to dictate the general pattern. I'm guessing if there isnt a favorable AO/NAO, winters tend to be milder overall and more variable wrt snowfall, and there is increased chances of little to no snow. I think I recall PSU saying Enso Neutral brings an increased chance of a persistent SER.
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As advertised the Pacific is hostile on the means for the foreseeable future. We shall see if that verifies. It might not. If it does, what can 'save us' from a shit the blinds period to some degree is a favorable NA. In general the guidance indicates we may get that, but we just cant know yet. Just roll with it man. Keep monitoring. Have fun with it. This isn't life and death shit lol.
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Dammit Chuck, stop canceling winter!! We need a good vibe up in here. Read the room.
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lol only destroyed by those who continue to expect op runs to be consistent 10-15 days out. I'll stop contributing to the stupidity by not making anymore posts about what is possible based on an op run. It's pretty ridiculous how so many long time members of a weather forum still don't understand how this works.
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There isn't an established block this run. That high is gonna exit stage right lol.
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Facilitated by a legit dipole block that is textbook perfect at h5- that 50-50 low isn't escaping so the upper convergence/confluence to the west is persistent, keeping the high in place in an ideal spot. Hopefully we see something like this at some point in the coming weeks. Nice to see the block having some persistence on the guidance. We gonna need it.
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Classic setup with strong surface HP locked in right where we want it because of the block.
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Hmm.. maybe
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The EPS has the best look in the NA(legit -NAO) heading into early Jan with a flattened flow underneath, despite the awful look out west. At least leaves open the possibility for something to track south of us.
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GFS and CMC Extended are a carbon copy of the Euro Ext(weekles), maybe even a little better. Nice to see that the pattern progression heading into mid Jan is in agreement among the big 3.
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As Ji said, I don't pay much attention to the colors esp on these extended products. Follow the flow. With the EPO ridge and the TPV in that position, that's a cold look.
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Yeah fwiw we get an EPO ridge by mid month and the NA looks decent too. This h5 look has been persistent over multiple runs so we shall see.
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Not always that simple- Depends on the orientation of the ridge/trough combo. There was positively tilted ridge and a less meridional trough underneath allowing for a somewhat flat PNA ridge beneath that. Last couple weeks- As advertised going forward-
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The anomalously strong Aleutian ridge(+EPO/-WPO combo)/downstream deep trough along the west coast is the thorn in our side as advertised going forward, despite indications of a negative NAO developing. A positive sign on all the extended products is a shift in the NPAC pattern with a -EPO developing towards mid Jan, which could be the mechanism to deliver colder air into the central/eastern US going forward.
