CAPE

Not sure it would be wasting money. It wont germinate until the soil warms up some- it will just be dormant for awhile.

Ninas are pretty much death to your area in winter, which is in the downslope area of the higher terrain the to west. Ninos should be better with big coastal storms that aren't late developing/offshore. Maybe this coming winter will be more fruitful. In summer that same effect causes it to be generally dry (with prevailing westerly winds) relative to surrounding areas. A veritable desert. Frustrating for a weather enthusiast unless dryness is preferred.

With a favorable Pacific and the TPV in that position, I think a moderate storm is possible. +NAO or not this isnt likely a 1993 type deal- which I wouldn't want anyway as it sucked here.

Boilerplate.

Potential around St Patty's day. Pretty good h5 look esp for mid March. A lot would have to break in our favor, but probably the next(last?) chance. As advertised, the Pacific is quite favorable. WPO ridge, lower heights around the Aleutians, and a +PNA. That in combination with a Southward displaced TPV can bring enough cold southward. Just need a wave to ride along the boundary.

12/5: 1.3" 12/14: 1.8" 12/31: 0.2" 1/1: 0.1" 1/18: 0.4" 1/25: 7" snow/sleet (plus 0.3" zr) 2/23: 10" 3/2: 1.1" T: 21.9"

Obligatory pic. Didn't pay much attention and wasn't expecting much, but did notice some of the guidance this morning had a streak of 'heavier' precip through here. Wasn't even snowing when I left work in Easton. Nice little finale if this is indeed the end of winter. Just over an inch. Next- early summer in a few days.

29 with a steady light snow falling. A solid inch on the deck.

My house is in that bright yellow band. Just looked at the cam and the ground is covered and snowing hard.

Been a hell of a run there since 2017 compared to climo. Just looking at a webcam view of Rehoboth Ave and piles of snow everywhere including right along the sidewalks.

@Jebman Ever watch this guy's videos?

I love a cool Spring, maybe not endless 40s, but I don't want to see 70 until mid April, and 80 until mid May. Even then it should be fleeting. We do heat better than anything. I can wait.

You're in the digital pink. Didn't think that was your thing.

Sad

Not seeing any hint of that on guidance. Not sure gut feelings mean a whole hell of a lot.

Nina though. Ninos are usually warmish.

I would hope that's the case, or we are fucked.

More Ninas! Rarely cold enough to snow here in Ninos anymore, although I would roll the dice with another 2009-10 type deal. Hopefully see we the combo of a severe -AO/NAO with a Modoki Nino again. Would be interesting to see what the results would be now.

Yeah I posted about this earlier. Still subject to change at this point. Whatever wave it is, it has to strike when that HP is in place to the north. Once it slides east off the coast its pretty much over for our area for a decent snow event.

There are subtle differences at H5 the last several runs wrt the shortwave energy moving in from the west and the vorticity to the north- which impacts the exact location of the cold HP to the north. Yeah, we cant know yet.

You sure?

Another randomer lol Not sure what this has to do with climate change. And it isn't PSU's "theory". GTFOH

St Patty's day 2014, and another late March snowstorm in 2018 are recent examples of how it isnt mostly over. Lowlands got significant snow in both those events.

Well written snippet from the Mt Holly AFD describing the key features that models likely have not resolved yet- A much colder air mass is forecast to be in place early next week as arctic high pressure from Canada builds nearby. There will be one or more ripples of energy in the northern stream that will initiate some precipitation. The timing and strength of these features within a trough aloft will determine the details. Some guidance is weaker with the trough and associated energy and therefore less precipitation, while focusing on a secondary short wave that delivers more of the precipitation on Tuesday compared to Monday. There still remains the potential for a period of wintry precipitation Monday and/or Tuesday, however uncertainty remains as the model guidance continues to differ on the handling of the upper- level features. The pattern does look conducive though for an overrunning snow or wintry mix setup with arctic high pressure to the north and energy arriving from the west. It is a matter of how much the moisture attacks the cold air across our region, with also how far south the arctic high pushes.

..........wrong thread................