CAPE

I have missed them too. Been on the western edge of the big beach storms, with 5-7". Done well with moderate snows in the last few winters, but all under 10" (One was 9) Last double digit storm here was 2016 and that was pretty crappy because of the dry slot. No deform snow at all.

In the banding the ratios will be higher with the bigger more 'airy' dendrites

Dude chill. Just having a little fun. You take this too seriously lol.

The first one I was out the next day. Second one was more of a legit blizzard and I stayed a second night. Nothing was open. Hotel Rehoboth has the free breakfast but also fed us dinner for free. There were like 7 people total staying there lol. That's a great Hotel. Half the price or less now compared to Summer. DFH is across the street and up the avenue a bit. Less than 5 mins.

His yard will maximize whatever moisture that area gets. The elevation and a couple degrees colder does it most of the time.

@AlexD1990 I want to see some videos. Boardwalk and beach, and Rehoboth Ave. I have some epic photos/vids from my 2 chases down there.

Forecast for Lewes/Rehoboth area- Sunday Night Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 10pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow after 1am. Low around 29. Windy, with a northwest wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Monday Snow. Areas of blowing snow. High near 36. Windy, with a northwest wind 20 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Your mountain doesnt work anymore in this Nina dominated climate. Get a second place in S DE. Blizzards galore!

LOL those tools are useless. Anyway the 12z CMC took a nice step in the right direction.

The Euro and CMC are depicting maybe 4-6". With the heavier stuff just to the East/NE. We shall see in the next few model cycles.

This will be the third(or fourth) blizzard for S DE since 2017. I was there for that one and then the bomb cyclone of Jan 2018. This one will also be a bomb. That area has done very well with these Nina coastal lows.

Forecast here currently has 8-14". I Wont be home to see it happen. Kinda sucks. I will head to Easton tomorrow afternoon and stay at the school tomorrow night.

At this point the ens is going to pretty much mirror the op run.

The EURO doesnt have the outcome quite right at this juncture, but it will adjust.

Look at the upper levels. A lot going on with the vorticity interplay. Subtle differences aloft impact what happens at the surface- specifically the surface low development and track. Lets look at the latest GFS, CMC , and Euro at h5-Best outcome to worst. It really comes down to the strength, timing, and the angle of the individual pieces of vorticity and how they phase, which impacts the tilt of the overall trough. One of the above looks a bit different than the other 2. Pretty subtle, but different.

Better for medium to long range forecasting for general pattern recognition and and more efficient wrt computing resources. Not the best inside 3 days with resolving details.

AI isn't the best as we approach gametime where small scale details matter. Rely on the physics based guidance at this juncture.

Where's Chuck? Cowbell +PNA baby

Pretty much every member depicts the same thing. Like no spread.

Almost exactly the same, which is what you would expect at this point.

If this comes to fruition the GFS is a champ, and all other guidance are chumps. It figured out the complex interplay of the individual pieces of vorticity and once it locked on it never waivered.

Damn

Have a few voddy tonics and a gummy

I wasn't here at that time but the P-day blizzard of 79 was epic.