CAPE

14.5/7 at 10pm

They bold! Nah, just stupid. TWC has been irrelevant and just silly for a long time now. Sad.

I'll give it some credit- for looking a lot like some of the better models at that point lol.

Still useful. 12km not so much.

yes

Its an awful model. Look at it out of boredom, or for entertainment purposes. The real models will be along soon.

Actually about the same lol. Still good! I need another bourbon.

Time to check the latest Natty Blend.. holy fuck..just keeps getting better

High of 27 15 at 9PM 10 will probably be the low. Burning some of that wood I split yesterday. Toasty in here. Heat pump on vacay.

May he stay far away.. well wait.. all those thunder snow live shots tho. Conflicted.

Surface to 850 gets bit above freezing briefly for SE MD and S DE. Don't want the low any further NW though- flow off the ocean is a NO. IDFC what happens down in central S VA lol.

Very beautiful. Quite pink.

Dunno. To me Feb 1-2 has looked more interesting.

Big potential here imo . Good look up top, confluence out in front of the NS shortwave, surface HP to the north, a significant shortwave moving across the deep south inducing low pressure off the SE coast, and plenty of cold air in place. Also the possibility of a phase.

Nice storm after the storm potential. I mentioned this several days ago in a post. Probably belongs in the other thread, but no one is paying much attention to that at this point lol. This is where its at.

At this range, this is right where we want it.

I cant help but admire the surface.. how often do we see a wall of HP across the north and west with juiced up overrunning and a low emerging off the NC coast. No mutha fucking Great Lakes low.

Yeeeaaah I dont think so lol

Bob chill!

WB

Incoming.. cold powder

I like my Sat night forecast- 80% chance of snow with a low of 13. Bring that shit.

Y'all what some good feels, check this out

Snippet from Mount Holly latest AFD- they are the better local forecast office, until they mention the 12k NAM. In fact, snow probabilities of the NBM have actually gone up quite a bit, now showing a 70-90% chance of 2+ inches of snow and a 60-80% chance of 6+ inches of snow for areas south of Philadelphia, with probabilities gradually falling off further north. Likewise, the probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI-P) has increased further with now almost our entire area expected to observe at least Moderate Level winter storm impacts. As noted with the previous shift, these probabilities are higher than the prior forecast cycle.