CAPE

Lets just roll with the Natty Blend

I think you can see it here where the low level winds converge-

Latest forecast for my yard is 9-13 late tomorrow/tomorrow night, and 1-3 on Monday. Just a tad less for Easton. Hoping to get home late Monday afternoon. Roads should be decent by then.

Read your NWS forecast. They know how to figure it out.

The snowfall/depth tools on these models are a joke. Best you can do is use qpf and pick a reasonable ratio and figure it out. 3km NAM has over 20" of snow falling here but a depth of a few inches as the event ends. Thats some hella compaction/melting. Maybe the high winds blew it away lol.

No. These people fly in from all over and stay for the duration of the course. They will all arrive today or tomorrow morning. Can't have students sitting in class with no instructor, so I have to get there. Not doing it early Monday morning with heavy snow and wind.

Same thing happened for the second storm in Feb 2010. That was an all out blizzard. Went home the next day to see the aftermath and dig my way into the house lol

Blizzard warning and I will see little to none of it actually happen at home. Heading to Easton tomorrow afternoon to stay at the School dorm(actually a hotel). I'll eat dinner at the Dining hall there, then hang out at the bar there, and watch it snow. Teaching all day Monday. Why couldn't this have happened on the weekend or last week when there were no classes.

Well damn. I've been outside fixing the end of driveway from the last storm. So nice out. Almost hard to believe what's coming.

I have missed them too. Been on the western edge of the big beach storms, with 5-7". Done well with moderate snows in the last few winters, but all under 10" (One was 9) Last double digit storm here was 2016 and that was pretty crappy because of the dry slot. No deform snow at all.

In the banding the ratios will be higher with the bigger more 'airy' dendrites

Dude chill. Just having a little fun. You take this too seriously lol.

The first one I was out the next day. Second one was more of a legit blizzard and I stayed a second night. Nothing was open. Hotel Rehoboth has the free breakfast but also fed us dinner for free. There were like 7 people total staying there lol. That's a great Hotel. Half the price or less now compared to Summer. DFH is across the street and up the avenue a bit. Less than 5 mins.

His yard will maximize whatever moisture that area gets. The elevation and a couple degrees colder does it most of the time.

@AlexD1990 I want to see some videos. Boardwalk and beach, and Rehoboth Ave. I have some epic photos/vids from my 2 chases down there.

Forecast for Lewes/Rehoboth area- Sunday Night Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 10pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow after 1am. Low around 29. Windy, with a northwest wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Monday Snow. Areas of blowing snow. High near 36. Windy, with a northwest wind 20 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Your mountain doesnt work anymore in this Nina dominated climate. Get a second place in S DE. Blizzards galore!

LOL those tools are useless. Anyway the 12z CMC took a nice step in the right direction.

The Euro and CMC are depicting maybe 4-6". With the heavier stuff just to the East/NE. We shall see in the next few model cycles.

This will be the third(or fourth) blizzard for S DE since 2017. I was there for that one and then the bomb cyclone of Jan 2018. This one will also be a bomb. That area has done very well with these Nina coastal lows.

Forecast here currently has 8-14". I Wont be home to see it happen. Kinda sucks. I will head to Easton tomorrow afternoon and stay at the school tomorrow night.

At this point the ens is going to pretty much mirror the op run.

The EURO doesnt have the outcome quite right at this juncture, but it will adjust.

Look at the upper levels. A lot going on with the vorticity interplay. Subtle differences aloft impact what happens at the surface- specifically the surface low development and track. Lets look at the latest GFS, CMC , and Euro at h5-Best outcome to worst. It really comes down to the strength, timing, and the angle of the individual pieces of vorticity and how they phase, which impacts the tilt of the overall trough. One of the above looks a bit different than the other 2. Pretty subtle, but different.

Better for medium to long range forecasting for general pattern recognition and and more efficient wrt computing resources. Not the best inside 3 days with resolving details.