CAPE

You know how this works. As we get closer, errors in previous simulated outcomes get incrementally corrected until we arrive at the actual outcome, which is yet to be determined.

Unlike yesterday, that wasn't really directed at anyone, just a general statement. I was actually replying to my own post lol.

In my initial reply to Will's total snowfall post I said it was realistically more like 2-4" across the area for that window.

0z wasn't bad- it had a decent amount of precip and the wonderful snow mean was 1-2".

This is why mean snowfall at range is of limited value. Difficult to know what each member is keying on for precip. The lazy thing to do is to guess that its simply timing differences wrt one wave and take the total over 3-4 days.

Where are you getting 95% from? Some members have an event on Thursday with a lead wave, and some show something for early the following week. So is next weekend Thursday through Tuesday?

Those maps are not for next weekend, that's total snow. More like 2-4" on the mean, which is ok if it isnt skewed by a handful of members. If you look at the 6 hour panels per member for the period it isn't that impressive.

Still liking this window a lot right now, but way out there.

The shortwave of interest for next weekend weakens in the convergence behind the NS energy on the ens means similar to the op runs. As we know, models rarely(never) have the location and timing of these wave interactions nailed a week out. Plenty of time for corrections.

Several possibilities for sure. We just cant know yet.

Root for this member from the 18z GEFS run for next weekend lol

Just for the record the window around the 20th is mine. Yes I am looking past next weekend. It looked great at one point, but now.. maybe. Same could be said for around the 20th. Its just how it goes with guidance in the LR.

Read up. I already made that case lol.

A mix. Some focus more on the 12th. A lot have nothing, some rain, a few snow south. Plenty of spread as expected at this range.

For those looking at the snow mean for next weekend on the 18z GEFS, it is skewed by a handful of members, with one being a monster that all would love lol. Signal is there though.

Sure, but you are up on a mountain lol. Both of these 'threats' look to have marginal cold to work with, so a lot has to go right, esp for the lowlands.

Its probably wrong, but running up the ass end of that northern vorticity isnt gonna work. Need more spacing.

I don't pay much attention to that stuff. Mostly Voodoo. Its a weak Nina that's getting weaker. To me that makes the patterns/sensible weather more of a wildcard.

High wind watch.. don't see that often here. Fuck.. Friday Night A chance of light snow after 7pm. Cloudy, with a low around 22. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Saturday A chance of snow showers before 7am. Partly sunny, with a high near 22. Wind chill values as low as -3. Windy, with a northwest wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 8. Blustery, with a northwest wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph.

Hey I love me a +PNA/-EPO pattern with bigtime cold. That's worked out well for southern/eastern parts of our area recently. Not so much for folks NW of I-95. That includes you I think. Why root for cold and dry lol.

What do you want, some perfect pattern? When we get those they often don't produce anything. In mid to late Feb snow historically comes pretty easy in our region. Lately not so much, so we got the WDI in our favor too.

12z GEFS kinda likes that window too Here ya go snow map freaks- not bad 2 weeks out lol

How about this look? The Pac ridge shifts northward and builds into the WPO domain, which causes the deep trough out west to weaken and shift north/expand eastward some. If this verifies there will be more of a mechanism for delivery of colder air into our nearby source region. No hint of a SE ridge and potentially active with energy in the southwest ejecting eastward.

As I posted this morning, the potential for a storm after the storm, around the 20th, is looking pretty interesting.

That was a classic lol