CAPE

Looks like noise on the ens mean. Not much difference. Many more runs to go. No need to spend time trying to analyze micro differences between successive runs.

To me the most important thing is the spacing between the lead digging shortwave and the energy riding overtop the ridge and then dropping southward. Hard to tell on the 18z as the run ends too soon, but comparing the two my guess is it would end up a tad worse than 12z.

They are interviewing everybody lol He wouldn't be awful. I prefer Klint Kubiak- young OC, comes from the Shanahan tree. Actually made Sam Darnold look good lol. His dad was a very successful OC for one season for the Ravens before moving on to coach the Broncos. I think Lamar would approve. He hated Monken.

Just for you-

That energy digging southward over the western ridge is creating mini ridge out in front and that's problematic. Need that to be weaker or more spacing. Good thing is at this range that probably wont be the actual outcome. As is, it isnt that far from something good.

Been busy the last few days so haven't been paying much attention(a good thing actually) Just looking at the ens means, and this is a pretty sweet UL look. We haven't seen energy digging like this very often lately. Still not crazy about the look in eastern Canada, with the vort lobe and higher heights near 50-50, so interaction and timing is critical. Details to be resolved going forward. Op runs will have some misses, close calls/teases, and some hits. Stay calm.

Like I said, you don't understand. Google/AI might be helpful.

Hey its an op run and only 13 days out. It must be right. Ji should be pissed.

And we aren't in NY state at elevation downwind of Lake Ontario. Hell of a comparison lol

I haven't given up on mid month, but I just think the H5 look centered on the 20th is more impressive and conducive to a winter storm for our area- in particular the low heights in the 50-50 region vs anomalously high heights there for mid month. A 50-50 high doesnt work so well to keep surface HP in place to the north when a storm is moving in- that can work ok for places NW but even there it would probably be messy.

'Dumb' plants. Easily tricked into thinking its Spring lol.

I generally agree with this.

I don't think you understand the purpose of ensemble models. Maybe just ignore them?

The reality is the Ravens will hire the coach Lamar wants. Seems a big part of why Harbaugh was fired is because Lamar didn't want Monken as the OC, which I 100 percent understand, but Harbaugh wanted to keep him. Harbaugh probably "lost the locker room" largely because he let Monken do the stupid shit he did- like refuse to run the ball in the AFC championship game against KC who had a suspect run defense(Ravens were the best running team in the league), and leaving Henry to rot on the bench in the 4th quarter of the NE game a couple weeks ago when the Ravens had an 11 point lead, with a defense that is famous for blowing 4th quarter leads under Harbaugh. Run the fucking ball and eat clock in that situation and you keep the crappy D off the field and you win the game.

I still think there is a shot mid month but like I said yesterday this window is by far the best h5 look. Dry for now on the mean but there is moisture lurking from the Gulf to the mid south. Long way to go.

Still cant forget the wasted years in the Lamar era- esp all the late blown leads that have ended in losses. Also the weird Monken play calling where Harbaugh wouldn't take a stand- That AFC championship game was unforgivable to me.

Please don't hire a retread. Klint Kubiak!!

holy shit

See my post from yesterday. Still stands. Just tired of all the whinging.

Lets get tricky. Let them shit up the Med/LR thread and we'll have some real discussion here. Or start a new thread- by invite only. All whiny thread shitter uppers excluded.

Busy lately, but thought I would do my daily check in. I'll be checking out now. Enjoy!

Love the look around the 20th, even though its pretty far off. Best signal there for something across ens guidance. The 14th-15th window is also sneaky good imo. Have liked the mid month period in general for awhile now.

He might have felt more confident if the kick was shorter and hit it more solid, but yeah, he didn't strike it cleanly just like that kickoff. Terrible. He didn't miss in the regular season from 40-49 yds btw. Reality is he was nervous and choked- might just be his youth or he might not be the one.