CAPE

Still headed the wrong way. Into the abyss. Zero signs of turning it around. FFS do something. Fire Hyde. The result might be just as bad, or worse, but I doubt it. Change is needed.

Fun disco from Mount Holly. Some snippets- For Friday, a decaying MCS from upstream across the Midwest this evening is anticipated to impact the region. The threat of severe hazards will be conditional based on the timing of the MCS. If it comes through very fast and early in the morning, the severe threat will likely be low. However, a slower propagation will yield increasing instability ahead of it, which would support strengthening. These systems do tend to trend faster and further south of what guidance suggests. If a slower evolution comes to fruition, all severe hazards would be possible, mainly focused on locally damaging wind gusts, but some hail or a brief tornado could be possible if all the stars align properly. Brief heavy downpours possible as well. This MCS and the environment ahead of it will need to be monitored closely overnight. In summary, Friday`s weather and forecast will be highly mesoscale driven and have low predictability beyond about 6 hours or so. High temperatures should be mostly in the mid 70s to mid 80s, and muggy with depends in the mid to upper 60s. It will be mostly cloudy with light south to southwest winds. Remain alert for additional forecast updates regarding the potential convective threats. Forcing strengthens with an incoming potent shortwave digging from the Great Lakes Friday night into Saturday. At the surface, an area of low pressure slides by to the north Saturday into Saturday Night, with a cold front advancing towards and eventually through the region. Another decaying MCS may impact the area again Friday night or early Saturday. Any convection Friday night and Saturday could be impacted by this system. Temperatures will climb into the 80s and it will feel quite muggy ahead of the front. Instability looks to be on the order of around 1000 J/kg with relatively favorable shear. Thinking any showers and thunderstorms will come in the afternoon and evening as the front arrives. Main concern would be damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours, but still a good amount of uncertainty being a couple days out, especially given the potential for another early MCS.

It might not make a difference, but at this point just make a change for changes sake. Maybe someone who thinks a bit out of the box, has a little energy. Hyde is a bore and completely predictable.

Quick hitter but picked up 0.35" Total for the 'event' now 0.85"

Here now. Booming thunder and pouring rain. Needed a little excitement from this lame event lol.

Drought busted out that way.

Managed to get some rain overnight, although didn't get a flush hit from any of the cells. Most missed just to the west or east. Up to a half inch total.

Ravens S Ar'Darius Washington tore an Achilles during conditioning https://sports.yahoo.com/article/ravens-ardarius-washington-tore-achilles-230342415.html Ravens bad luck with injuries in the secondary continues, even in the off season. Starks will likely be a starter as a rookie.

We should trade profile photos.

Just looked at all the Mesonet stations east of the bay- Only Stevensville has a somewhat respectable rain total- 0.41". Everywhere else is a quarter inch or less. A tenth here. Not confident in the overnight, but the forecast is still for a half to three quarters. I would have downgraded it to a tenth or less except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Doesn't look like much chance of a more widespread steady rain for this area.

I'm getting epic bust vibes that could rival last week's over here. 12z 3km NAM depiction looks good for later, but current radar down south doesn't seem to jibe.

Haven't hit a tenth yet lol. Delayed...probably denied. Potential thunderstorms tonight will need to deliver.

Dover radar will be out for 3 weeks waiting on a new motor. That seems like a ridiculously long time.

Less than a tenth here so far. Probably a half inch max without a few hits from thunderstorms. Cams look pretty meh over here.

Pretty decent start by Eflin in his return. Maybe the Os can get a little something good going for a change. They are due.

Higher terrain to the west, esp upslope areas. Probably not in the metros. 12z Euro probably has the right idea. LOL Gulf of America in a NWS AFD. Pathetic.

12z HRRR isn't bad and the globals depict areas to the east and NE getting some decent scraps beyond hour 60. All remains to be seen.

It is looking like the last event where interior areas do better than places further east. Hopefully I can get break a tenth of an inch this time.

Check out the 18z GFS.

The last "event" was one of the biggest short term busts in recent memory. Forecast rainfall totals here before last minute adjustments as the event was unfolding: 1-1.5" Total rainfall here: 0.05" Luckily prior events performed/overperformed and got my area out of the drought. Really need a solid inch of rain now though as it has gotten pretty dry again.

A couple days ago it looked like Tuesday would be a nice day, with showers coming in overnight. I planned to go hiking lol.

Yeah he is 35 but doesnt look it and seems durable. That's probably why they were able to sign him to a relatively modest deal. If the rest of the rotation was intact his addition would have been much more impactful. Eflin is back- looks like he will start Sunday- and then we wait and see on Grayson(doesnt look promising) and the potential returns of Bradish and Wells sometime after the all star break. The offense must become more consistent for the team to tread water until then. They are at a critical point right now-need to stay inside of 10 under and work towards 500. Continue on this trajectory and they will be 20 under before you know it. That would pretty much be the writing on the wall.

The one thing Elias got right in the offseason was signing Sugano. Dude throws 5 or 6 different pitches and has one of the filthiest splitters you will ever see.

They are on pace to lose 100+ games. Still no signs of life. Someone needs to take the fall.

It is past time for Hyde to go. Like seriously. Team needs a shake up and a new perspective. The pitching woes are problematic and wont be resolved unless they get some healthy arms back, but the offense is just pathetic, and it shouldn't be.