CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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Drunk PbP should be fun.
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Not sure if this has been posted- probably has but I'm a little drunk and just noticed it. Damn bourbon. King GFS? LOL
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Yeah but this isnt the GFS- Its a blend, and more in touch with reality
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They are a a north of Philly thing. We are losing if we depend on that shit.
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Latest Blend
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Its a great Imperial IPA. Enjoy! I'll be picking up a few of the Limited Release 120s tomorrow. $8.90 a bottle! So fucking good.
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Makes sense since the physics based Euro model just semi-caved to the GFS.
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We don't want to depend on that feature. There will be a narrow area of heavier precip, and more have nots than haves. We want.. fucking need, something close to what the GFS is advertising.
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You are doing fine with the analysis. The improvements have not gone unnoticed.
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That's not all it did though. As I said in my reply to your post earlier, that ball of vorticity that comes from the tail end of that vorticity ribbon(that previously was unique to the GFS) then phases back into the ribbon! IMO that impacts the character of the trough and the strength and proximity of the low to the coast.. Euro is not there quite yet so the next few runs will be very interesting.
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Southern MD / Lower Eastern Shore weather discussion
CAPE replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Looking at the changes at h5 that the Euro just made- towards the GFS- IMO we should see the Euro trend more to the GFS idea the next few runs. Should be interesting -
Yeah I didn't really mean nobody- more like few That's why I made the other thread.
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Work in progress. Now that it has figured out the key upper level features that the GFS has had for many runs now(that no other model has depicted) it should get better. We shall see.
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Eh, you might have forgotten someone on the great analysis
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I literally identified the differences aloft less than an hour ago, and the Euro has made a BIG step towards the GFS. I might go back to my technical thread now lol.
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Nobody here cares about the reason why though lol.. its all about the goddamn snow maps.
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Significant step towards the GFS imo-
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The primary difference I see is the NW to SE vorticity ribbon dropping southeastward in the flow from Canada is more robust and phases with the energy taking the southern route. The SLP over SC begins to develop at that point. As for why it digs more and climbs the coast then tucks as it intensifies, I think it has to do with the ball of vorticity seen here over SW MN that emanates from the tail end of that ribbon, and THEN ultimately phases in- no other model has had that.
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Check the Panasonic?
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At this range there should be less spread among the members with the mean looking more like the op run, and that's what is happening. Doesn't mean its correct.
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The 6z Eps is less impactful with the coastal low than 0z. Further east and weaker.
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Thats pretty much what it looked like at that point on the previous run. Its beyond that where the action happens.
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Because its hideous lol
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Just looking at the 0z EPS panels- there is a definite increase in the number of members that have a significant coastal low close enough to the coast compared to 12z yesterday.
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The ens mean looks more sensible- has the most snow in the climo favored areas
