CAPE

Mount Holly AFD snippet- While some areas will likely reach the century mark again, it will not be quite to the magnitude that we experienced to start July. Humidity will be a little less as well, and the hottest conditions will only last for one day. However, heat index values are still forecast to range from 100-109 degrees for most of the area, again hottest from along and southeast of I-95. A modest westerly, offshore wind near 10-15 mph should help keep the sea breeze from making much inland progress during the afternoon hours. Thus, we expect high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and heat indices near 100-105 degrees even for the New Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches. The limiting factor in how much we heat will be smoke from Canadian wildfires. We are already seeing the first plume of wildfire smoke dropping south into the the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and that will insulate the region from the highest heat. The smoke should again help mitigate how much heating we receive tomorrow so while temps are going to be hot and there are no changes to any heat headlines, we are not fully maximizing the potential heat that the thermal profile suggests we could warm to.

Rain needed, and plenty of it. Except for what I water, everything is fried. Starting to see crispy leaves otg from tree stress.

62 this morning. Refreshing.

This team just won 4 consecutive games for the first time this season, and are still 5 games under 500. Sure the AL sucks ass but they have not demonstrated the ability to go on a run to get them to/over the 500 mark. They will probably start the second half with a mediocre addition or 2 and proceed to lose 3 or 4 in a row. No reason to believe otherwise.

With Elias at the helm, 100% something completely illogical will transpire.

Well they won, but lose Blaze to a broken hand. Orioles can't have nice things.

CanSIPS likes that idea.

Some of those years we had cold air delivery via a -EPO and a well timed/transient -NAO that supported a snowstorm. Jan 2017, 18 and 2022 are examples.

We need a -AO and or -EPO to deliver legit cold. Outside of that we rely on a dynamic system(evap/dynamic cooling) with a very favorable track, and probably need a significant, established negative NAO to feed cold enough air southward as a coastal low climbs the coast. That's kind of always been part of the formula, esp in a Nino, but might be a bit more of a challenge today. Thus why I generally don't mind Ninas at all lately given my location, mostly depending on the NE Pac ridge position/orientation.

Not the case several times in recent winters- although most of those were Ninas. Jan 2022 is a perfect example(my storm.) We were in shut(shit) the blinds mode with no apparent end in sight and 10 days or so later there was a major snowstorm across much of the area, and it stayed pretty cold and snowed another time or 2.

This seems to concur.

H5 went from shit to sugar over about 10 days leading up.

Yeah most of the activity firing behind this boundary is staying east in DE.

I'm sure they will miss my yard lol. 7.3" here for A-M-J and so far in July. Thus the extreme drought.

Yeah I mentioned that outflow boundary in the other thread.

Maybe that outflow boundary moving SW from the SNJ storms can trigger something.

A quarter inch of rain would be cool. Not asking for much. That would get me to a little over an inch and a half for the month, while continuing the pathetic monthly totals since March.

These 15 year olds lol.

The norm here. Stopped paying attention to the WPC/local NWS hype for heavy rain. The time will come but it isnt now.

I was a young then but I remember it vividly. Lived in Carroll county back then. It was basically just the Feb blizzard after an overall mild winter, but got very cold leading up to it and then rapidly warmed up right after and ended winter. That's the type of deal we could see this coming winter, the way things look right now. Similar to 2016.

About to drink a 90 Min IPA

the repair was a combo of crazy glue for skin and stiches

Elias.. gaslighting fans