40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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There is a reason I have never really touched this thread....its always been a ton of smoke without much fire.
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Man, you need to move if this is in your top 10
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The complete lack of frontogenesis was a red flag....knew we wouldn't see a repeat of the Sunday band, but figured maybe still scrap together several inches of fluff in a few spots. Will have to see if it comes together....I'm not that invested.
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Don't you mean south? lol
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No, I will have to sit home and use time.
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Pretty much the same as my map, just broken into smaller ranges.
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Cosgrove has been insistent the pattern goes through March, and breaks in early April....warms up quickly, so we actually have a decent spring. I agree, at this point.
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Its good...it wasn't a shot at you, I just really meant its pointless arguing over subtle differences that are in each within the realm of plausibility.
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I agree, either scenario is possible....and in that case, I defer to the more skilled guidance, which is the EURO....but I think my 3-7" swath covers it.
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Sorry to ruin the HECS chances, but Vegas is off.....staying local because governor is still so paranoid about traveling out of state, which is a risk, since I am a state employee. Boss advised against it. I think I would get away with it, but the wife is pretty sure she can't stay of social media. so....
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Yea, woosh. Only 3 people I know of that got that were Cosgrove, DT and Steve.
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I don't think there is a cross hair sig, anywhere....but I gave up debating him. Its fruitless. I could see it sinking back southward a bit. Good luck to all.
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The reason the gradient is not as sharp to the east is because the mid level lows begin developing a south a bit, upon exit....
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I agree.....I think the best "banding" signal, which is weak, is between the pike and NH border.
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Final Call: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/02/snowy-tuesday-final-call.html
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This is what I was referring to...if we had any fronto whatsoever, there would be another death band.
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Compromise for us...the NARCAN map is probably decent, but that EURO run was pretty strong, so I would probably use it as upper bounds.
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Its when strong OMEGA (lift) is centered tightly within the fully saturdated Snow Growth Zone (SGZ) on the sounding. I only learned about it from busts over past couple of years.
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Pretty weak cross hair, too....won't seeing any stray 12" reports in this one. upper range of snow maps should do it.
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I don't think we will see the insane band that we had yesterday....fronto seems to be virtually non-existent.
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See, I do not mind the moderate events in this pattern. Its when I get 5" with bare ground and nothing else in site that leaves something to be desired. I don't need a bomb in this pattern, though obviously one would be preferred anytime beyond Monday.
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NARCAN
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.44" QPF here.....that's probably a good 6".
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May be prudent to take a compromise of 10:1 and Kuctchie...
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I would have gone off of the deep end if I were up there....its been awful.
