40/70 Benchmark

Some people can't tolerate objectivity.....they want you in a snowflake costume with pom poms relentlessly shouting "GO STORM, GO'".. 5 PPD is not used liberally enough.

I would toss the UK as far as you can, then run the other direction.

My guess is whatever trends we get in that respect will not have any sensible impact...I think we missed the boat on juggernaut, as anticipated.

How much today?

GFS

H5 still looks like Katrina in the final hours before LF....I want a pre ERC Katrina H5 look.

I am not trying to sound like Harvey Leonard...Brian and Scott are right, more often than not, that doesn't work...but it was just so glaring in that instance. Very well may not work out like that, this time....but I'm hedging that way.

Exactly...read my mind.

I don't think it will get there for like a 2' nuke, but nice to see.

Yea, I mean there is always noise and some variance....but I never bought that. My area looked pegged for that from several days out. I remember debating Scott about exactly that. The EURO tried to park the mid level band as far south as the MA/NH border like 24 hrs out, too....called BS on that.

I think H5 looked a bit tighter and focused to the south a shade.

Same page....lots of 12" over 36 hr reports.

I meant the subsidence between the low level deformation near the coast and mid level deformation to the west in SNE...the northern extent was always in question. Gaps in forcing are easier to point out than the northern extent of mid level deformation IMO.

I encountered a hell of a squall on I93 in Malden about 745am....def S+.

I don't recall arctic cold before the March 2013 even or Dec 1992....hopefully its still decent..at least a foot.

That is the issue with the arctic airmass disappearing....just an amorphous bag of crap with no big gradients. Same issue we have had all season, despite the epic pattern change. Thanks.

The question is residency time....if the band zips through in 12 hours, its going to have to be pretty impressive to lay down over a foot generally.

I think we have better 850 inflow than Boxing Day, so I don't think it will be that shredded.

Exactly....it was clear as day. The forecast for this major snow storm was a general success, as both the snowfall minimum and maximum areas were correctly placed across southern New England. However, the amounts within the general 12-18"range that encompassed the vast majority of the region were confined to the lower half of said range. Thus perhaps a 10-15" range would have been more suitable. A range of 8-12" would have been more representative in the substinence zone of lighter areas, rather than the 10-16" that was used. The placement of this axis was exceptionally well forecast, as were the heavier areas, on the north and south shore. The heavier area throughout western Connecticut, a result of the nexus between the warm and cold conveyor belts, was very well forecast, and the 12-20"+ range was very representative. As good as this forecast was across the forecast area, there were issues just outside of the region that although not technically part of the forecast, due detract from the overall quality of the effort.

Brain cramp...I was thinking that was 2009.

Don't remember that one...probably not a great sign lol

Yea, 8-10" in the CTRV.

I never like seeing epic totals in the mid atl....90% of the time when that is the case, you can immediately eliminate upper tier SNE snowfall and be right. LBSW has been the theme, and continues to be, this season.

Yea, I am thinking more like widespread 8-14".