40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Maybe someone could start a thread for Tuesday? Its two days out, and its getting a bit cumbersome to distinguish to which threat identified dialogue is referencing...
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I disagree that: 1) Ridge axis over the plains is optimal, as I would prefer INVO the Rockies. 2) I disagree that there is still a realistic chance that this significsntly impacts us. Is this judgement at least partially biased by frustration...maybe.
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Oh, my bad....I think seasonal trends have some value, but am not a disciple of persistence forecasting lol
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+.5" from squall. 19" total.
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Wow, GEPS look like shit for 1/28....GEFS a slight step back. Same shit season, diff day.
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No, it doesn't, but the past def. helps to inform the future...the whole analog thing and such.
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I'd give it about a 1/10 chance. 20" far more doable.....I will probably get about 30" more on the season.
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Yea, even if it hit, its going to be a "load blown SW" event....another theme of this god foresaken winter. We probably don't even need to worry about it, though.
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I feel like the trough position is ideally a little further west....so I can certainly see it going out to sea...TBH, at this point, I would be shocked it provided significant impact to the region. Disagree.
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Second to the futility season of 1979-1980, this has a shot to be my worst neg NAO season on record.
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Well, gotta hope for Steve's Feb 1994, but I doubt that, too.
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Yea....Feb will do it- That'll show 'em...
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That silence is likely the news.
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Well, Jan 2011 is onto February.
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We kind of need the Rockies ridge to be over the Rockies, and not MN.
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First Call for Tuesday and an update for the still unlikely Thursday event. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/01/potentially-more-ominous-mid-winter.html
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I'm from Wilmington, so that area....I would mind further west, but I need to commute to Chelsea.
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Probably like Wilmington, Andover, Tewksbury......
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I am likely moving this year....non weather related, but welcomed from a weather POV.
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No point being this far north unless you are near MHT.....very seldom does latitude south of MHT down to like I 495 matter in big events.
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Probably about an 80" chance that is how it works out. Man, I can't wait to shed this 12 or so miles of useless latitude....it never does any good. And when it does, its during a useless, meager event.
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Looks just like PD 1. Hopefully ensembles are diff.
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I understand why others feel differently, but I would rather grind that event to a pulp....just eviscerate it, and the faster the better. I don't even care about the snow..cover up Ginxy's dog terds with a couple of inches first, but get rid of it, thereafter.
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Honestly, I'll take a soaker, at this point....anything but this- Kevin's delusions of Sou 'Easters have never looked so appealing....if you don't look at the screen name next to the post, you lure your interest into being piqued.
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Not even just that....1999-2000 was +NAO/AO...but it was one my three primary ENSO analogs (1970, 2000, 2007). Sometimes you just pick up on a theme in analog seasons and run with it. Regardless of the polar fields, the these mixed-type mod ENSO seasons have a propensity to deal mid atlantic specials during Jan or Feb.
