40/70 Benchmark

It takes a pretty anomalous ridge in place for a high-end hurricane to continue barreling west at that latitude and not recurve, while maintaining that ferocity....theoretically speaking, its very possible....but it takes a unique setup. Just like the south shore with respect to snowfall maxima....while not usually climo favored to get nailed, will get walloped due to OES assist in a cold air mass with an onshore flow. Yes, FL is vulnerable to extreme hurricanes in a general sense, theoretically speaking, but there are reasons why it is not really a climo hot spot for cat 4's and 5s.

There are climo hot spots, like the Yucatan peninsula, and Bahamas, and then other areas that while at risk in a general sense, are not so climo favored. FL to me a bit like the lower windard islands in that most severe storms in the area veer north and east of them. Its like our local snow climo....we all get nailed in a general sense, but then you have the ORH hills, etc.

Feel free to do the research, but I am going to venture to guess that the odds are not great.

It is stretching it, but like John said....the odds of any one point getting directly impacted by a cat 4-5 is inherently low, anyway. Some area are more prone than others, and IMO, the Bahamas are much more at risk than FL....its no coincidence. Every bit of longitude at that latitude is crucial.

It makes sense to a degree, as such as extreme systems are likely to begin recurving at that latitude...that bit of extra longitude that FL as is often crucial.

Yea, I mean there. Agree regarding NNE.

Still a long shot any given season.

Disappointed with severe season? In other news, my randevu with gonorrhea left a bit to be desired.

I hit up his FB wall...

Thanks for sharing that.

I remember that gtg when we met...maybe 5 years ago? RIP

No way.....just found out. So sorry to hear this. RIP, my friend. I need to purchase his book like I promised I would.

Not in this case.

I'll be around more in the back half of the summer when the tropics heat up.....April-July is utterly useless.

I agree with that. In the aggregate, precip will be greater, but it won't be as evenly distributed.

I don't think areas near the ocean would get drier...and while there may be less overall significant cyclogenesis, there will be more whoppers, which will still account for a net gain in precipitation. As far as a greater percentage coming during the cold season, great, AFAIC.....less wasted QPF on rain outs at Fenway, and more on winter storms

Yes....doesn't mean the distribution is even. I also agree that it could create some barriers with respect to cyclogenesis due to shearing/decreased gradient, but overall, its a wetter planet.

Yes it is. Warmer air holds more moisture.

Why? Why is that the earth can warm, but can't be wetter? If the earth is warming, its going to be wetter...period. Will there be some regression, probably, but toss climo like you do with temps.

Hopefully the ensuing heat wave can distract you from your annual fantasy floundering lol

Yea, its just a consideration....I'm not saying to base an outlook off of it lol Believe me, if next year looks like garbage, then fine.....

Its just being attenuated somewhat by the ambient warming.

I wouldn't say that....def. not as pervasive as it once was....

Thanks for that info. I sent out an email trying to get some feedback on that a day or two ago.