The lesson is to couple model analysis with meterological intellect. We had a huge upper low passing beneath sne, and while guidance occasionally remained east with best forcing right up until go time, we know that that usually verifies a bit west of guidance. We also know that heaviest precip is normally somewhat west of modeled qpf max.
Models are much better at resolving low level forcing, but still struggle tremendously with forcing in the mid levels.
I'm glad I went big and nailed it. I remember insisting to scooter yesterday that we should get it, however I got so nervous last night that I finally just set the alarm for 4am and crashed. That was almost as good a call as the forecast. Lol