40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Was about to say it looks sloppy at hr 150...
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Congrats, Wilmington.
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Looks like an arrow directing the snow towards the Dawn Awakening
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Its easy on the eyes, but I don't buy that completely....prob a bit too far north and def. a bit overdone on QPF.
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GFS gives me 6" lol
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Yes. ORH is better on east flow, too because its a chain of hills....you really need an extended ridge line to maximize upslope.
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I would take the GFS lol
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He lies lol
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Ball busting aside, I have always valued your OBS as much as anyone....top tier. I think you're pretty meticulous and objective, but I can see why those you haven't been around as long would suspect otherwise lol
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That was also back in my WOTY days lol
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Doesn't have that "always in the right spot" ambiance, either...great spot, but ORH does better in upslope bc its a chain of hills. Much better SWFE climo, too.
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He's probably been writing it ever since.
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Honestly, Dec 1992 is when I really noticed it....I remember thinking, "wow, if ORH already has 12", then Springfield must have like 20"!.....further NW is always more snow. But that storm is when I started to understand the topographical nuances and just how magical that spot is.
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Look back through history....always just far enough in one direction....very seldom do they miss out on the lion's share of snowfall. I honestly take that into consideration when making snowfall maps.
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One thing that you can take to the bank is that ORH will be just far enough NE to catch that OMEGA.
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Shades of 2010 lol
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Hopefully I can get into kind of a sweet spot, where I can get the dying lift from the initial surge to the west, then catch the INVT snows...
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GEFS looked excellent...hair inside BM. EPS was okay, but I would like to see that come NW a bit....well outside of the BM. SE trend. GEPS were pretty bad...se of EPS.
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I'm fine with it....for obvious reasons, I am done gambling on precip and suppression, and am ready to take my chances otherwise.
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Hopefully my latitude finally pays some dividends. I know its not much of a difference from Wilmington, but you would be shocked at how often mother nature has managed to shove that extra 10-12 mi of latitude up my rear, since I moved here.
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Well, you said Greenland ridge and -EPO....so that is neg NAO and neg EPO, which is why I was wondering why you were ambivalent.... I agree.....neg NAO is game changer....that goes, and you have my forecast Feb, which is no fun. Just a hunch, but I still feel like we would steal some decent snow, though.
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Yea, I will gamble with this. If we get a big February, I think your Jan 2011 call still has merit. It is beyond difficult to accurately predict a pattern several months out, never mind the precise timing of it....then to have it result in the literal forecast sensible appeal, as far as snowfall amounts.....heh, yeesh.
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I just mean for most of SNE....yea, should be some mixing well south.
